15 February 2021

Systems Thinking: Systems Dynamics (Quotes)

"Dynamic theory [...] shows how certain changes in the variables can be explained on the basis of [...] structural characteristics of the system. [...] The economy, of course, does not necessarily find an equilibrium position." (Wassily Leontief, "Studies in the Structure of the American Economy", 1953)

"System theory is basically concerned with problems of relationships, of structure, and of interdependence rather than with the constant attributes of objects. In general approach it resembles field theory except that its dynamics deal with temporal as well as spatial patterns. Older formulations of system constructs dealt with the closed systems of the physical sciences, in which relatively self-contained structures could be treated successfully as if they were independent of external forces. But living systems, whether biological organisms or social organizations, are acutely dependent on their external environment and so must be conceived of as open systems." (Daniel Katz, "The Social Psychology of Organizations", 1966)

"Self-organization can be defined as the spontaneous creation of a globally coherent pattern out of local interactions. Because of its distributed character, this organization tends to be robust, resisting perturbations. The dynamics of a self-organizing system is typically non-linear, because of circular or feedback relations between the components. Positive feedback leads to an explosive growth, which ends when all components have been absorbed into the new configuration, leaving the system in a stable, negative feedback state. Non-linear systems have in general several stable states, and this number tends to increase (bifurcate) as an increasing input of energy pushes the system farther from its thermodynamic equilibrium.” (Francis Heylighen, "The Science Of Self-Organization And Adaptivity", 1970)

"The relations that define a system as a unity, and determine the dynamics of interaction and transformations which it may undergo as such a unity constitute the organization of the machine." (Humberto Maturana, "Autopoiesis and cognition: The realization of the living", 1980)

"Linking topology and dynamical systems is the possibility of using a shape to help visualize the whole range of behaviors of a system. For a simple system, the shape might be some kind of curved surface; for a complicated system, a manifold of many dimensions. A single point on such a surface represents the state of a system at an instant frozen in time. As a system progresses through time, the point moves, tracing an orbit across this surface. Bending the shape a little corresponds to changing the system's parameters, making a fluid more visous or driving a pendulum a little harder. Shapes that look roughly the same give roughly the same kinds of behavior. If you can visualize the shape, you can understand the system." (James Gleick, "Chaos: Making a New Science", 1987)

"The dynamics of any system can be explained by showing the relations between its parts and the regularities of their interactions so as to reveal its organization. For us to fully understand it, however, we need not only to see it as a unity operating in its internal dynamics, but also to see it in its circumstances, i.e., in the context to which its operation connects it. This understanding requires that we adopt a certain distance for observation, a perspective that in the case of historical systems implies a reference to their origin. This can be easy, for instance, in the case of man-made machines, for we have access to every detail of their manufacture. The situation is not that easy, however, as regards living beings: their genesis and their history are never directly visible and can be reconstructed only by fragments."  (Humberto Maturana, "The Tree of Knowledge", 1987)

"Systems, acting dynamically, produce (and incidentally, reproduce) their own boundaries, as structures which are complementary (necessarily so) to their motion and dynamics. They are liable, for all that, to instabilities chaos, as commonly interpreted of chaotic form, where nowadays, is remote from the random. Chaos is a peculiar situation in which the trajectories of a system, taken in the traditional sense, fail to converge as they approach their limit cycles or 'attractors' or 'equilibria'. Instead, they diverge, due to an increase, of indefinite magnitude, in amplification or gain." (Gordon Pask, "Different Kinds of Cybernetics", 1992)

"A model for simulating dynamic system behavior requires formal policy descriptions to specify how individual decisions are to be made. Flows of information are continuously converted into decisions and actions. No plea about the inadequacy of our understanding of the decision-making processes can excuse us from estimating decision-making criteria. To omit a decision point is to deny its presence - a mistake of far greater magnitude than any errors in our best estimate of the process." (Jay W Forrester, "Policies, decisions and information sources for modeling", 1994)

"Initially, it may seem that such systems constitute a very special class of processes. And, in fact, that is indeed the case. However, nature has providentially worked things out so that a lot of processes of practical concern just happen to belong to this class - including many of the systems of classical physics like passive electrical circuits, damped vibrating springs, and bending beams. Moreover, when we observe these kinds of processes in real life, what we usually see is the system when it is at or very near to equilibrium. For these reasons catastrophe theory can be of great value in helping us understand how these kinds of systems can shift abruptly from one equilibrium state to another as various parameters, like spring constants or unemployment rates, are varied just a little bit." (John L Casti, "Five Golden Rules", 1995)

"The reason catastrophe theory can tell us about such abrupt changes in a system's behavior is that we usually observe a dynamical system when it's at or near its steady-state, or equilibrium, position. And under various assumptions about the nature of the system's dynamical law of motion, the set of all possible equilibrium states is simply the set of critical points of a smooth function closely related to the system dynamics. When these critical points are nondegenerate, Morse's Theorem applies. But it is exactly when they become degenerate that the system can move sharply from one equilibrium position to another. The Thorn Classification Theorem tells when such shifts will occur and what direction they will take." (John L Casti, "Five Golden Rules", 1995)

"It [system dynamics] focuses on building system dynamics models with teams in order to enhance team learning, to foster consensus and to create commitment with a resulting decision […] System dynamics can be helpful to elicit and integrate mental models into a more holistic view of the problem and to explore the dynamics of this holistic view […] It must be understood that the ultimate goal of the intervention is not to build a system dynamics model. The system dynamics model is a means to achieve other ends […] putting people in a position to learn about a messy problem [...] create a shared social reality […] a shared understanding of the problem and potential solutions [...] to foster consensus within the team [..]" (Jac A M Vennix, "Group Model Building: Facilitating Team Learning Using System Dynamics", 1996)

"With the subsequent strong support from cybernetics, the concepts of systems thinking and systems theory became integral parts of the established scientific language, and led to numerous new methodologies and applications - systems engineering, systems analysis, systems dynamics, and so on." (Fritjof Capra, "The Web of Life", 1996)

[systems dynamics:] "A field of study that includes a methodology for constructing computer simulation models to achieve better under-standing of social and corporate systems. It draws on organizational studies, behavioral decision theory, and engineering to provide a theoretical and empirical base for structuring the relationships in complex systems." (Virginia Anderson & Lauren Johnson, "Systems Thinking Basics: From Concepts to Casual Loops", 1997)

"System dynamics is a method for studying the world around us. Unlike other scientists, who study the world by breaking it up into smaller and smaller pieces, system dynamicists look at things as a whole. The central concept to system dynamics is understanding how all the objects in a system interact with one another. A system can be anything from a steam engine, to a bank account, to a basketball team. The objects and people in a system interact through 'feedback' loops, where a change in one variable affects other variables over time, which in turn affects the original variable, and so on." (Edward Yourdon, "Death March", 1997)

"There is no over-arching theory of complexity that allows us to ignore the contingent aspects of complex systems. If something really is complex, it cannot by adequately described by means of a simple theory. Engaging with complexity entails engaging with specific complex systems. Despite this we can, at a very basic level, make general remarks concerning the conditions for complex behaviour and the dynamics of complex systems. Furthermore, I suggest that complex systems can be modelled." (Paul Cilliers, "Complexity and Postmodernism", 1998)

"Bounded rationality simultaneously constrains the complexity of our cognitive maps and our ability to use them to anticipate the system dynamics. Mental models in which the world is seen as a sequence of events and in which feedback, nonlinearity, time delays, and multiple consequences are lacking lead to poor performance when these elements of dynamic complexity are present. Dysfunction in complex systems can arise from the misperception of the feedback structure of the environment. But rich mental models that capture these sources of complexity cannot be used reliably to understand the dynamics. Dysfunction in complex systems can arise from faulty mental simulation-the misperception of feedback dynamics. These two different bounds on rationality must both be overcome for effective learning to occur. Perfect mental models without a simulation capability yield little insight; a calculus for reliable inferences about dynamics yields systematically erroneous results when applied to simplistic models." (John D Sterman, "Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world", 2000)

"Just as dynamics arise from feedback, so too all learning depends on feedback. We make decisions that alter the real world; we gather information feedback about the real world, and using the new information we revise our understanding of the world and the decisions we make to bring our perception of the state of the system closer to our goals."( John D Sterman, "Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world", 2000)

"Much of the art of system dynamics modeling is discovering and representing the feedback processes, which, along with stock and flow structures, time delays, and nonlinearities, determine the dynamics of a system. […] the most complex behaviors usually arise from the interactions (feedbacks) among the components of the system, not from the complexity of the components themselves." (John D Sterman, "Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world", 2000)

"The robustness of the misperceptions of feedback and the poor performance they cause are due to two basic and related deficiencies in our mental model. First, our cognitive maps of the causal structure of systems are vastly simplified compared to the complexity of the systems themselves. Second, we are unable to infer correctly the dynamics of all but the simplest causal maps. Both are direct consequences of bounded rationality, that is, the many limitations of attention, memory, recall, information processing capability, and time that constrain human decision making." (John D Sterman, "Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world", 2000)

"This spontaneous emergence of order at critical points of instability is one of the most important concepts of the new understanding of life. It is technically known as self-organization and is often referred to simply as ‘emergence’. It has been recognized as the dynamic origin of development, learning and evolution. In other words, creativity-the generation of new forms-is a key property of all living systems. And since emergence is an integral part of the dynamics of open systems, we reach the important conclusion that open systems develop and evolve. Life constantly reaches out into novelty." (Fritjof  Capra, "The Hidden Connections", 2002)

[systems dynamics:] "A methodology for studying and managing complex feedback systems, such as one finds in business and other social systems." (Lars O Petersen, "Balancing the Capacity in Health Care", 2008)

"A modeling language is usually based on some kind of computational model, such as a state machine, data flow, or data structure. The choice of this model, or a combination of many, depends on the modeling target. Most of us make this choice implicitly without further thinking: some systems call for capturing dynamics and thus we apply for example state machines, whereas other systems may be better specified by focusing on their static structures using feature diagrams or component diagrams. For these reasons a variety of modeling languages are available." (Steven Kelly & Juha-Pekka Tolvanen, "Domain-specific Modeling", 2008)

"In ecology, we are often interested in exploring the behavior of whole systems of species or ecosystem composed of individual components which interact through biological processes. We are interested not simply in the dynamics of each species or component in isolation, but the dynamics of each species or component in the context of all the others and how those coupled dynamics account for properties of the system as a whole, such as its persistence. This is what people seem to mean when they say that ecology is ‘holistic’, an otherwise rather vague term." (John Pastor, "Mathematical Ecology of Populations and Ecosystems", 2008)

"System dynamics is a top-down approach for modelling system changes over time. Key state variables that define the behaviour of the system have to be identified and these are then related to each other through coupled, differential equations." (Peer-Olaf Siebers & Uwe Aickelin, "Introduction to Multi-Agent Simulation", 2008) 

[systems dynamics:] "A continuous simulation of systems exhibiting feedback loops. The feedbacks can either intensify activities of the system (positive feedback) or slow them down and stabilize the system (negative feedback)." (Nikola Vlahovic & Vlatko Ceric, "Multi-Agent Simulation in Organizations: An Overview", 2009)

[systems dynamics:] "Is a scientific tool which embodies principles from biology, ecology, psychology, mathematics, and computer science to model complex and dynamic systems." (Kambiz E Maani, "Systems Thinking and the Internet from Independence to Interdependence", 2009)

"System dynamics is an approach to understanding the behaviour of over time. It deals with internal feedback loops and time delays that affect the behaviour of the entire system. It also helps the decision maker untangle the complexity of the connections between various policy variables by providing a new language and set of tools to describe. Then it does this by modeling the cause and effect relationships among these variables." (Raed M Al-Qirem & Saad G Yaseen, "Modelling a Small Firm in Jordan Using System Dynamics", 2010)

[system dynamics simulation:] "A dynamic form of visualization that combines causal loop diagrams and stock and flow diagrams to create a simulation of the workings of a system from one point in time to another." (DAMA International, "The DAMA Dictionary of Data Management", 2011)

[systems dynamics:] "An approach for capturing the complex inter- and intra- dependencies that characterize systems, including feedback over time." (Howard Passell, "Collaborative, Stakeholder-Driven Resource Modeling and Management", 2011)

[systems dynamics:] "This studies the non-linear interaction of systems of many connected equations. The approach is based on differential equations. It describes the dynamical properties of a whole system using internal negative and positive feedback loops as well as the use of stocks and flows. (Martin Neumann, "An Epistemological Gap in Simulation Technologies and the Science of Society", 2011)

"Models are present in everything we do. One does not have a family or corporation in one's head. Instead, one has observations about those systems. Such observations and assumptions constitute mental models, which are then used as the basis for action. System dynamics models have little impact unless they change the way people perceive a situation. They must relate to and improve mental models if they are to fill an effective role." (Jay W. Forrester, "Modeling for What Purpose?", The Systems Thinker Vol. 24 (2), 2013)

"System dynamics models have little impact unless they change the way people perceive a situation. A model must help to organize information in a more understandable way. A model should link the past to the present by showing how present conditions arose, and extend the present into persuasive alternative futures under a variety of scenarios determined by policy alternatives. In other words, a system dynamics model, if it is to be effective, must communicate with and modify the prior mental models. Only people's beliefs - that is, their mental models - will determine action. Computer models must relate to and improve mental models if the computer models are to fill an effective role." (Jay W. Forrester, "Modeling for What Purpose?", The Systems Thinker Vol. 24 (2), 2013)

[systems dynamics:] "A simulation-modelling approach to understand the structure and behaviour of complex dynamic systems over time." (Jaime A Palma-Mendoza, "Hybrid SD/DES Simulation for Supply Chain Analysis", 2014)

[systems dynamics:] "A systems simulation methodology to study complex dynamic behavior of industrial and social systems based on control engineering and cybernetics." (Michael Mutingi & Charles Mbohwa, 2014)

[system dynamics:] "The interactions of connected and interdependent components, which may cause change over time and give rise to interconnected risks; emerging, unforeseeable issues; and unclear, disproportional cause-and-effect relationships." (Project Management Institute, "Navigating Complexity: A Practice Guide", 2014)

[systems dynamics:] "A continuous simulation of systems exhibiting feedback loops. The feedbacks can either intensify activities of the system (positive feedback) or slow them down and stabilize the system (negative feedback)." (Nikola Vlahovic & Vlatko Ceric, "An Overview of Multi-Agent Simulation in Organizations", 2015)

"System Dynamics is a dynamic modelling approach at system level which is primarily used to understand interconnected systems and their evolution over time. Basic elements to represent the systems are internal feedback loops as well as stocks and flows." (Catalina Spataru et al, "Multi-Scale, Multi-Dimensional Modelling of Future Energy Systems", 2015)

"System dynamics [...] uses models and computer simulations to understand behavior of an entire system, and has been applied to the behavior of large and complex national issues. It portrays the relationships in systems as feedback loops, lags, and other descriptors to explain dynamics, that is, how a system behaves over time. Its quantitative methodology relies on what are called 'stock-and-flow diagrams' that reflect how levels of specific elements accumulate over time and the rate at which they change. Qualitative systems thinking constructs evolved from this quantitative discipline." (Karen L Higgins, "Economic Growth and Sustainability: Systems Thinking for a Complex World", 2015)

[systems dynamics:] "A simulation technique based on the solution of differential equations, in which the status variables of a system vary with continuity." (Lorenzo Damiani et al, "Different Approaches for Studying Interruptible Industrial Processes: Application of Two Different Simulation Techniques", 2016)

"Although cascading failures may appear random and unpredictable, they follow reproducible laws that can be quantified and even predicted using the tools of network science. First, to avoid damaging cascades, we must understand the structure of the network on which the cascade propagates. Second, we must be able to model the dynamical processes taking place on these networks, like the flow of electricity. Finally, we need to uncover how the interplay between the network structure and dynamics affects the robustness of the whole system." (Albert-László Barabási, "Network Science", 2016)

[systems dynamics:] "A technique que allow to obtain models to explore possible futures or scenarios and ask 'what if' questions in complex situations." (Ruth R Gallegos, "Using Modeling and Simulation to Learn Mathematics", Handbook of Research on Driving STEM Learning With Educational Technologies, 2017)

"The goal of a system dynamics approach is to understand how a dynamic pattern of behaviour is generated by a system and to find leverage points within the system structure that have the potential to change the problematic trend to a more desirable one. The key steps in a system dynamics approach are identifying one or more trends that characterise the problem, describing the structure of the system generating the behaviour and finding and testing leverage points in the system to change the problematic behaviour. System dynamics is an appropriate modelling approach for sustainability questions because of the long-term perspective and feedback dynamics inherent in such questions." (Bilash K Bala et al, "System Dynamics: Modelling and Simulation", 2017)

[systems dynamics:] "A method through which the dynamic behaviour of a complex system over time can be better understood by taking into account internal feedback and time delays." (Henry Xu & Renae Agrey, "Major Techniques and Current Developments of Supply Chain Process Modelling", 2018)

[systems dynamics:] "Computer-aided methodology able to represent the causal structure of a system through stock-and-flow feedback structures and computer simulations regarding the accumulation of materials, information, people, and money." (Francesca Costanza, "Governing Patients' Mobility to Pursue Public Value: A System Dynamic Approach to Improve Healthcare Performance Management", 2018)

"The basis of system dynamics is to understand how system structures cause system behavior and system events." (Arzu E Şenaras, "A Suggestion for Energy Policy Planning System Dynamics", 2018)

"Exponentially growing systems are prevalent in nature, spanning all scales from biochemical reaction networks in single cells to food webs of ecosystems. How exponential growth emerges in nonlinear systems is mathematically unclear. […] The emergence of exponential growth from a multivariable nonlinear network is not mathematically intuitive. This indicates that the network structure and the flux functions of the modeled system must be subjected to constraints to result in long-term exponential dynamics." (Wei-Hsiang Lin et al, "Origin of exponential growth in nonlinear reaction networks", PNAS 117 (45), 2020) 

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