Science: On Conclusions (Quotes)

"Reasoning draws a conclusion and makes us grant the conclusion, but does not make the conclusion certain, nor does it remove doubt so that the mind may rest on the intuition of truth, unless the mind discovers it by the path of experience." (Roger Bacon, "Opus Majus", cca. 1267)

"On the other hand, if we add observation to observation, without attempting to draw no only certain conclusions, but also conjectural views from them, we offend against the very end for which only observations ought to be made." (Friedrich W Herschel, "On the Construction of the Heavens", Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Vol. LXXV, 1785)

"The art of drawing conclusions from experiments and observations consists in evaluating probabilities and in estimating whether they are sufficiently great or numerous enough to constitute proofs. This kind of calculation is more complicated and more difficult than it is commonly thought to be […]" (Antoine-Laurent Lavoisier, cca. 1790)

"Before anything can be reasoned upon to a conclusion, certain facts, principles, or data, to reason from, must be established, admitted, or denied." (Thomas Paine, "Rights of Man", 1791) 

"In order to supply the defects of experience, we will have recourse to the probable conjectures of analogy, conclusions which we will bequeath to our posterity to be ascertained by new observations, which, if we augur rightly, will serve to establish our theory and to carry it gradually nearer to absolute certainty." (Johann H Lambert, "The System of the World", 1800)

"Such is the tendency of the human mind to speculation, that on the least idea of an analogy between a few phenomena, it leaps forward, as it were, to a cause or law, to the temporary neglect of all the rest; so that, in fact, almost all our principal inductions must be regarded as a series of ascents and descents, and of conclusions from a few cases, verified by trial on many." (Sir John Herschel, "A Preliminary Discourse on the Study of Natural Philosophy" , 1830)

"Observation is so wide awake, and facts are being so rapidly added to the sum of human experience, that it appears as if the theorizer would always be in arrears, and were doomed forever to arrive at imperfect conclusion; but the power to perceive a law is equally rare in all ages of the world, and depends but little on the number of facts observed." (Henry D Thoreau, "A Week on the Concord and Merrimack Rivers", 1862)

"It is of the nature of true science to take nothing on trust or on authority. Every fact must be established by accurate observation, experiment, or calculation. Every law and principle must rest on inductive argument. The apostolic motto, ‘Prove all things, hold fast that which is good’, is thoroughly scientific. It is true that the mere reader of popular science must often be content to take that on testimony which he cannot personally verify; but it is desirable that even the most cursory reader should fully comprehend the modes in which facts are ascertained and the reasons on which the conclusions are based." (Sir John W Dawson, "The Chain of Life in Geological Time", 1880)

"One is almost tempted to assert that quite apart from its intellectual mission, theory is the most practical thing conceivable, the quintessence of practice as it were, since the precision of its conclusions cannot be reached by any routine of estimating or trial and error; although given the hidden ways of theory, this will hold only for those who walk them with complete confidence." (Ludwig E Boltzmann, "On the Significance of Theories", 1890)

"Just as data gathered by an incompetent observer are worthless - or by a biased observer, unless the bias can be measured and eliminated from the result - so also conclusions obtained from even the best data by one unacquainted with the principles of statistics must be of doubtful value." (William F White, "A Scrap-Book of Elementary Mathematics: Notes, Recreations, Essays", 1908)

"Ordinarily, facts do not speak for themselves. When they do speak for themselves, the wrong conclusions are often drawn from them. Unless the facts are presented in a clear and interesting manner, they are about as effective as a phonograph record with the phonograph missing." (Willard C Brinton, "Graphic Methods for Presenting Facts", 1919)

"The preliminary examination of most data is facilitated by the use of diagrams. Diagrams prove nothing, but bring outstanding features readily to the eye; they are therefore no substitutes for such critical tests as may be applied to the data, but are valuable in suggesting such tests, and in explaining the conclusions founded upon them." (Sir Ronald A Fisher, "Statistical Methods for Research Workers", 1925) 

"Observed facts must be built up, woven together, ordered, arranged, systematized into conclusions and theories by reflection and reason, if they are to have full bearing on life and the universe. Knowledge is the accumulation of facts. Wisdom is the establishment of relations. And just because the latter process is delicate and perilous, it is all the more delightful." (Gamaliel Bradford, "Darwin", 1926)

"The characteristic which distinguishes the present-day professional statistician, is his interest and skill in the measurement of the fallibility of conclusions." (George W Snedecor, "On a Unique Feature of Statistics", [address] 1948)

"Every bit of knowledge we gain and every conclusion we draw about the universe or about any part or feature of it depends finally upon some observation or measurement. Mankind has had again and again the humiliating experience of trusting to intuitive, apparently logical conclusions without observations, and has seen Nature sail by in her radiant chariot of gold in an entirely different direction." (Oliver J Lee, "Measuring Our Universe: From the Inner Atom to Outer Space", 1950)

"The enthusiastic use of statistics to prove one side of a case is not open to criticism providing the work is honestly and accurately done, and providing the conclusions are not broader than indicated by the data. This type of work must not be confused with the unfair and dishonest use of both accurate and inaccurate data, which too commonly occurs in business. Dishonest statistical work usually takes the form of: (1) deliberate misinterpretation of data; (2) intentional making of overestimates or underestimates; and (3) biasing results by using partial data, making biased surveys, or using wrong statistical methods." (John R Riggleman & Ira N Frisbee, "Business Statistics", 1951)

"Another thing to watch out for is a conclusion in which a correlation has been inferred to continue beyond the data with which it has been demonstrated." (Darell Huff, "How to Lie with Statistics", 1954)

"Model-making, the imaginative and logical steps which precede the experiment, may be judged the most valuable part of scientific method because skill and insight in these matters are rare. Without them we do not know what experiment to do. But it is the experiment which provides the raw material for scientific theory. Scientific theory cannot be built directly from the conclusions of conceptual models." (Herbert G Andrewartha," Introduction to the Study of Animal Population", 1961)

"A mature science, with respect to the matter of errors in variables, is not one that measures its variables without error, for this is impossible. It is, rather, a science which properly manages its errors, controlling their magnitudes and correctly calculating their implications for substantive conclusions." (Otis D Duncan, "Introduction to Structural Equation Models", 1975)

"Crude measurement usually yields misleading, even erroneous conclusions no matter how sophisticated a technique is used." (Henry T Reynolds, "Analysis of Nominal Data", 1977)

"Science is a process. It is a way of thinking, a manner of approaching and of possibly resolving problems, a route by which one can produce order and sense out of disorganized and chaotic observations. Through it we achieve useful conclusions and results that are compelling and upon which there is a tendency to agree." (Isaac Asimov, "‘X’ Stands for Unknown", 1984)

"In everyday life, 'estimation' means a rough and imprecise procedure leading to a rough and imprecise result. You 'estimate' when you cannot measure exactly. In statistics, on the other hand, 'estimation' is a technical term. It means a precise and accurate procedure, leading to a result which may be imprecise, but where at least the extent of the imprecision is known. It has nothing to do with approximation. You have some data, from which you want to draw conclusions and produce a 'best' value for some particular numerical quantity (or perhaps for several quantities), and you probably also want to know how reliable this value is, i.e. what the error is on your estimate." (Roger J Barlow, "Statistics: A guide to the use of statistical methods in the physical sciences", 1989)

"Statistical models for data are never true. The question whether a model is true is irrelevant. A more appropriate question is whether we obtain the correct scientific conclusion if we pretend that the process under study behaves according to a particular statistical model." (Scott Zeger, "Statistical reasoning in epidemiology", American Journal of Epidemiology, 1991)

"Nature behaves in ways that look mathematical, but nature is not the same as mathematics. Every mathematical model makes simplifying assumptions; its conclusions are only as valid as those assumptions. The assumption of perfect symmetry is excellent as a technique for deducing the conditions under which symmetry-breaking is going to occur, the general form of the result, and the range of possible behaviour. To deduce exactly which effect is selected from this range in a practical situation, we have to know which imperfections are present." (Ian Stewart & Martin Golubitsky, "Fearful Symmetry", 1992)

"Clearly, science is not simply a matter of observing facts. Every scientific theory also expresses a worldview. Philosophical preconceptions determine where facts are sought, how experiments are designed, and which conclusions are drawn from them." (Nancy R Pearcey & Charles B. Thaxton, "The Soul of Science: Christian Faith and Natural Philosophy", 1994)

"Information needs representation. The idea that it is possible to communicate information in a 'pure' form is fiction. Successful risk communication requires intuitively clear representations. Playing with representations can help us not only to understand numbers (describe phenomena) but also to draw conclusions from numbers (make inferences). There is no single best representation, because what is needed always depends on the minds that are doing the communicating." (Gerd Gigerenzer, "Calculated Risks: How to know when numbers deceive you", 2002)

"Data, reason, and calculation can only produce conclusions; they do not inspire action. Good numbers are not the result of managing numbers." (Ronald J Baker, "Measure what Matters to Customers: Using Key Predictive Indicators", 2006)

"It is in the nature of human beings to bend information in the direction of desired conclusions." (John Naisbitt, "Mind Set!: Reset Your Thinking and See the Future", 2006) 

"Perception requires imagination because the data people encounter in their lives are never complete and always equivocal. [...] We also use our imagination and take shortcuts to fill gaps in patterns of nonvisual data. As with visual input, we draw conclusions and make judgments based on uncertain and incomplete information, and we conclude, when we are done analyzing the patterns, that out picture is clear and accurate. But is it?" (Leonard Mlodinow, "The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives", 2008)

"We naturally draw conclusions from what we see […]. We should also think about what we do not see […]. The unseen data may be just as important, or even more important, than the seen data. To avoid survivor bias, start in the past and look forward." (Gary Smith, "Standard Deviations", 2014)

"GIGO is a famous saying coined by early computer scientists: garbage in, garbage out. At the time, people would blindly put their trust into anything a computer output indicated because the output had the illusion of precision and certainty. If a statistic is composed of a series of poorly defined measures, guesses, misunderstandings, oversimplifications, mismeasurements, or flawed estimates, the resulting conclusion will be flawed." (Daniel J Levitin, "Weaponized Lies", 2017)

"In terms of characteristics, a data scientist has an inquisitive mind and is prepared to explore and ask questions, examine assumptions and analyse processes, test hypotheses and try out solutions and, based on evidence, communicate informed conclusions, recommendations and caveats to stakeholders and decision makers." (Jesús Rogel-Salazar, "Data Science and Analytics with Python", 2017)

"Just because there’s a number on it, it doesn’t mean that the number was arrived at properly. […] There are a host of errors and biases that can enter into the collection process, and these can lead millions of people to draw the wrong conclusions. Although most of us won’t ever participate in the collection process, thinking about it, critically, is easy to learn and within the reach of all of us." (Daniel J Levitin, "Weaponized Lies", 2017)

"Good data scientists know that, because of inevitable ups and downs in the data for almost any interesting question, they shouldn’t draw conclusions from small samples, where flukes might look like evidence." (Gary Smith & Jay Cordes, "The 9 Pitfalls of Data Science", 2019)

"Each decision about what data to gather and how to analyze them is akin to standing on a pathway as it forks left and right and deciding which way to go. What seems like a few simple choices can quickly multiply into a labyrinth of different possibilities. Make one combination of choices and you’ll reach one conclusion; make another, equally reasonable, and you might find a very different pattern in the data." (Tim Harford, "The Data Detective: Ten easy rules to make sense of statistics", 2020)

"If the data that go into the analysis are flawed, the specific technical details of the analysis don’t matter. One can obtain stupid results from bad data without any statistical trickery. And this is often how bullshit arguments are created, deliberately or otherwise. To catch this sort of bullshit, you don’t have to unpack the black box. All you have to do is think carefully about the data that went into the black box and the results that came out. Are the data unbiased, reasonable, and relevant to the problem at hand? Do the results pass basic plausibility checks? Do they support whatever conclusions are drawn?" (Carl T Bergstrom & Jevin D West, "Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World", 2020)

Science: On Central Limit Theorem (Quotes)

"I know of scarcely anything so apt to impress the imagination as the wonderful form of cosmic order expressed by the ‘Law of Frequency of Error’. The law would have been personified by the Greeks and deified, if they had known of it. It reigns with serenity and in complete self-effacement, amidst the wildest confusion. The huger the mob, and the greater the apparent anarchy, the more perfect is its sway. It is the supreme law of Unreason. Whenever a large sample of chaotic elements are taken in hand and marshalled in the order of their magnitude, an unsuspected and most beautiful form of regularity proves to have been latent all along." (Sir Francis Galton, "Natural Inheritance", 1889)

"The central limit theorem […] states that regardless of the shape of the curve of the original population, if you repeatedly randomly sample a large segment of your group of interest and take the average result, the set of averages will follow a normal curve." (Charles Livingston & Paul Voakes, "Working with Numbers and Statistics: A handbook for journalists", 2005)

"The central limit theorem says that, under conditions almost always satisfied in the real world of experimentation, the distribution of such a linear function of errors will tend to normality as the number of its components becomes large. The tendency to normality occurs almost regardless of the individual distributions of the component errors. An important proviso is that several sources of error must make important contributions to the overall error and that no particular source of error dominate the rest." (George E P Box et al, "Statistics for Experimenters: Design, discovery, and innovation" 2nd Ed., 2005)

"Two things explain the importance of the normal distribution: (1) The central limit effect that produces a tendency for real error distributions to be 'normal like'. (2) The robustness to nonnormality of some common statistical procedures, where 'robustness' means insensitivity to deviations from theoretical normality." (George E P Box et al, "Statistics for Experimenters: Design, discovery, and innovation" 2nd Ed., 2005)

"The central limit theorem differs from laws of large numbers because random variables vary and so they differ from constants such as population means. The central limit theorem says that certain independent random effects converge not to a constant population value such as the mean rate of unemployment but rather they converge to a random variable that has its own Gaussian bell-curve description." (Bart Kosko, "Noise", 2006)

"Normally distributed variables are everywhere, and most classical statistical methods use this distribution. The explanation for the normal distribution’s ubiquity is the Central Limit Theorem, which says that if you add a large number of independent samples from the same distribution the distribution of the sum will be approximately normal." (Ben Bolker, "Ecological Models and Data in R", 2007)

"[…] the Central Limit Theorem says that if we take any sequence of small independent random quantities, then in the limit their sum (or average) will be distributed according to the normal distribution. In other words, any quantity that can be viewed as the sum of many small independent random effects. will be well approximated by the normal distribution. Thus, for example, if one performs repeated measurements of a fixed physical quantity, and if the variations in the measurements across trials are the cumulative result of many independent sources of error in each trial, then the distribution of measured values should be approximately normal." (David Easley & Jon Kleinberg, "Networks, Crowds, and Markets: Reasoning about a Highly Connected World", 2010)

"Statistical inference is really just the marriage of two concepts that we’ve already discussed: data and probability (with a little help from the central limit theorem)." (Charles Wheelan, "Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data", 2012)

"The central limit theorem tells us that in repeated samples, the difference between the two means will be distributed roughly as a normal distribution." (Charles Wheelan, "Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data", 2012)

"According to the central limit theorem, it doesn’t matter what the raw data look like, the sample variance should be proportional to the number of observations and if I have enough of them, the sample mean should be normal." (Kristin H Jarman, "The Art of Data Analysis: How to answer almost any question using basic statistics", 2013)

"At very small time scales, the motion of a particle is more like a random walk, as it gets jostled about by discrete collisions with water molecules. But virtually any random movement on small time scales will give rise to Brownian motion on large time scales, just so long as the motion is unbiased. This is because of the Central Limit Theorem, which tells us that the aggregate of many small, independent motions will be normally distributed." (Field Cady, "The Data Science Handbook", 2017)

"The central limit conjecture states that most errors are the result of many small errors and, as such, have a normal distribution. The assumption of a normal distribution for error has many advantages and has often been made in applications of statistical models." (David S Salsburg, "Errors, Blunders, and Lies: How to Tell the Difference", 2017)

"Theoretically, the normal distribution is most famous because many distributions converge to it, if you sample from them enough times and average the results. This applies to the binomial distribution, Poisson distribution and pretty much any other distribution you’re likely to encounter (technically, any one for which the mean and standard deviation are finite)." (Field Cady, "The Data Science Handbook", 2017)

"The central limit theorem in statistics states that, given a sufficiently large sample size, the sampling distribution of the mean for a variable will approximate a normal distribution regardless of that variable’s distribution in the population." (Jim Frost)

Systems Thinking: On The Law of Requisite Variety (Quotes)

"Only variety can destroy variety." (W Ross Ashby, "An Introduction to Cybernetics", 1956)

"The Law of Requisite Variety enables us to apply a measure to regulation." (W Ross Ashby, "An Introduction to Cybernetics", 1956)

"For any system the environment is always more complex than the system itself. No system can maintain itself by means of a point-for-point correlation with its environment, i.e., can summon enough 'requisite variety' to match its environment. So each one has to reduce environmental complexity - primarily by restricting the environment itself and perceiving it in a categorically preformed way. On the other hand, the difference of system and environment is a prerequisite for the reduction of complexity because reduction can be performed only within the system, both for the system itself and its environment." (Thomas Luckmann & Niklas Luhmann, "The Differentiation of Society", 1977)

"Another implication of the Law of Requisite Variety is that the member of a system that has the most flexibility also tends to be the catalytic member of that system. This is a significant principle for leadership in particular. The ability to be flexible and sensitive to variation is important in terms of managing the system itself." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"[...] the Law of Requisite Variety states that "in order to successfully adapt and survive, a member of a system needs a certain minimum amount of flexibility, and that flexibility has to be proportional to the potential variation or the uncertainty in the rest of the system'. In other words, if someone is committed to accomplishing a certain goal, he or she needs to have a number of possible ways to reach it. The number of options required to be certain the goal can be reached depends on the amount of change that is possible within the system in which one is attempting to achieve the goal." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"'Law of Requisite Variety' [...] states that if a problem is to be solved, the variety of the response must be equal to or greater than the variety of the problem, that is the complexity of a response must at least match the complexity of the problem. The line where contextual complexity equals complexity of organisational response, the 'Line of Requisite Variety', represents an optimal match between the complexity of a given problem and that of the response." (Bettina von Stamm, "Managing Innovation, Design and Creativity", 2003)

"The control system theory deals with the concept of law of requisite variety. The law of requisite variety is based on rigid and complex algorithms and formulations. The law of requisite variety states that in a control system, the number of control variations should be equivalent to the number of possible loss of control points. In real world control systems that operate in business organizations, one to one control does not become practical." (S R Singh, "Information System Management", 2007)

"The notion of feedback to regulate servomechanisms is the control engineer’s contribution to understanding how systems can be sensed, and then sufficient sense made of this for the purpose of having the system behave agreeably. The cleverness of control has been to influence systems behavior when a priori knowledge of that system is difficult or impossible to achieve. Usually you need to know what it is you are controlling to have a chance of regulating its behavior; that is one consequence of the law of requisite variety." (John Boardman & Brian Sauser, "Systems Thinking: Coping with 21st Century Problems", 2008)

"Two systems concepts lie at the disposal of the architect to reflect the beauty of harmony: parsimony and variety. The law of parsimony states that given several explanations of a specific phenomenon, the simplest is probably the best. […] On the other hand, the law of requisite variety states that for a system to survive in its environment the variety of choice that the system is able to make must equal or exceed the variety of influences that the environment can impose on the system." (John Boardman & Brian Sauser, "Systems Thinking: Coping with 21st Century Problems", 2008)

"The principle of requisite variety means essentially that if you want to cope successfully with a wide variety of inputs, you need a wide variety of responses. If you have less variety than your inputs, the system could be destroyed." (Karl E Weick et al, "Managing the Unexpected: Resilient Performance in an Age of Uncertainty", 2011)

Mind: On Maps (Quotes)

"[…] learning consists not in stimulus-response connections but in the building up in the nervous system of sets which function like cognitive maps […] such cognitive maps may be usefully characterized as varying from a narrow strip variety to a broader comprehensive variety." (Edward C Tolman, "Cognitive maps in rats and men", 1948)

"A person is changed by the contingencies of reinforcement under which he behaves; he does not store the contingencies. In particular, he does not store copies of the stimuli which have played a part in the contingencies. There are no 'iconic representations' in his mind; there are no 'data structures stored in his memory'; he has no 'cognitive map' of the world in which he has lived. He has simply been changed in such a way that stimuli now control particular kinds of perceptual behavior." (Burrhus F Skinner, "About behaviorism", 1974)

"[...] it seems (to many) that we cannot account for perception unless we suppose it provides us with an internal image (or model or map) of the external world, and yet what good would that image do us unless we have an inner eye to perceive it, and how are we to explain its capacity for perception? It also seems (to many) that understanding a heard sentence must be somehow translating it into some internal message, but how will this message be understood: by translating it into something else? The problem is an old one, and let’s call it Hume’s Problem, for while he did not state it explicitly, he appreciated its force and strove mightily to escape its clutches. (Daniel Dennett, "Brainstorms: Philosophical essays on mind and psychology", 1978)

"The mapping from linguistic inputs to mental models is not a one-one mapping. So semantic properties of sentences may not be recoverable from a mental model. Reading or listening is typically for content not for form. People want to know what is being said to them, not how it is being said. [...] A mental model is a representation of the content of a text that need bear no resemblance to any of the text's linguistic representations. Its structure is similar to the situation described by the text." (Alan Granham, "Mental Models as Representations of Discourse and Text", 1987)

"[…] a mental model is a mapping from a domain into a mental representation which contains the main characteristics of the domain; a model can be ‘run’ to generate explanations and expectations with respect to potential states. Mental models have been proposed in particular as the kind of knowledge structures that people use to understand a specific domain […]" (Helmut Jungermann, Holger Schütz & Manfred Thuering, "Mental models in risk assessment: Informing people about drugs", Risk Analysis 8 (1), 1988)

"Each of us has many, many maps in our head, which can be divided into two main categories: maps of the way things are, or realities, and maps of the way things should be, or values. We interpret everything we experience through these mental maps. We seldom question their accuracy; we're usually even unaware that we have them. We simply assume that the way we see things is the way they really are or the way they should be."  (Stephen Covey, "The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People", 1989) 

"The more aware we are of our basic paradigms, maps, or assumptions, and the extent to which we have been influenced by our experience, the more we can take responsibility for those paradigms, examine them, test them against reality, listen to others and be open to their perceptions, thereby getting a larger picture and a far more objective view." (Stephen Covey, "The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People", 1989)

"[…] there is an irreducible difference between the world and our experience of it. We as human beings do not operate directly on the world. Each of us creates a representation of the world in which we live - that is, we create a map or model which we use to generate our behavior. Our representation of the world determines to a large degree what our experience of the world will be, how we will perceive the world, what choices we will see available to us as we live in the world." (Richard Bandler & John Grinder, "The Structure of Magic", 1975)

"Behavior modeling involves observing and mapping the successful processes which underlie an exceptional performance of some type. It is the process of taking a complex event or series of events and breaking it into small enough chunks so that it can be recapitulated in some way. The purpose of behavior modeling is to create a pragmatic map or 'model' of that behavior which can be used to reproduce or simulate some aspect of that performance by anyone who is motivated to do so. The goal of the behavior modeling process is to identify the essential elements of thought and action required to produce the desired response or outcome. As opposed to providing purely correlative or statistical data, a 'model' of a particular behavior must provide a description of what is necessary to actually achieve a similar result." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"From the NLP perspective, there are inductive transformations, through which we perceive patterns in, and build maps of, the world around us; and there are deductive transformations, through which we describe and act on our perceptions and models of the world. Inductive transformations involve the process of "chunking up" to find the deeper structure patterns ('concepts', 'ideas', 'universals', etc.) in the collections of experiences we receive through our senses. Deductive transformations operate to 'chunk down' our experiential deep structures into surface structures; rendering general ideas and concepts into specific words, actions and other forms of behavioral output." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"Having a choice is better than not having a choice. Always try to have a map for yourself that gives you the widest and richest number of choices. Act always to increase choice. The more choices you have, the freer you are and the more influence you have." (Joseph O’Connor, "Leading With NLP: Essential Leadership Skills for Influencing and Managing People", 1998)

"In NLP terms, then, a master is not someone who already knows the answers and has the solutions but someone who is able to ask worthwhile questions and direct the process of learning, problem solving and creativity to form new maps of the world that lead to useful new answers and possibilities." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"In the NLP view, then, 'reality' is the relationship and interaction between deep structures and surface structures. Thus, there are many possible 'realities'. It is not as if there is 'a map' and 'a territory', there are many possible territories and maps, and the territory is continually changing, partially as a function of the way in which people's maps lead them to interact with that territory." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"NLP operates from the assumption that the map is not the territory. As human beings, we can never know reality, in the sense that we have to experience reality through our senses and our senses are limited. [...] We can only make maps of the reality around us through the information that we receive through our senses and the connection of that information to our own personal memories and other experiences. Therefore, we don't tend to respond to reality itself, but rather to our own maps of reality." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"Our brain is mapping the world. Often that map is distorted, but it's a map with constant immediate sensory input." (Edward O Wilson, [interview] 1998)

"People respond to their experience, not to reality itself. We do not know what reality is. Our senses, beliefs, and past experience give us a map of the world from which to operate." (Joseph O’Connor, "Leading With NLP: Essential Leadership Skills for Influencing and Managing People", 1998)

"The NLP modeling process consists of applying various strategies for examining the mental and physical processes which underlie a particular performance or the achievement of a particular result, and then creating some type of explicit map or description of those processes which can be applied for some practical purpose. Various modeling strategies delineate different sequences of steps and types of distinctions through which relevant patterns may discovered and formed into descriptions."  (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"The objective of the NLP modeling process is not to end up with the one 'right' or 'true' description of a particular person's thinking process, but rather to make an instrumental map that allows us to apply the strategies that we have modeled in some useful way. An 'instrumental map' is one that allows us to act more effectively - the 'accuracy' or 'reality' of the map is less important than its 'usefulness'." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"A collective mental map functions first of all as a shared memory. Various discoveries by members of the collective are registered and stored in this memory, so that the information will remain available for as long as necessary. The storage capacity of this memory is in general much larger than the capacities of the memories of the individual participants. This is because the shared memory can potentially be inscribed over the whole of the physical surroundings, instead of being limited to a single, spatially localized nervous system. Thus, a collective mental map differs from cultural knowledge, such as the knowledge of a language or a religion, which is shared among different individuals in a cultural group but is limited by the amount of knowledge a single individual can bear in mind." (Francis Heylighen, "Collective Intelligence and its Implementation on the Web", 1999)

"Our view of reality is like a map with which to negotiate the terrain of life. If the map is true and accurate, we will generally know how to get there. If the map is false and inaccurate, we generally will be lost." (M Scott Peck, "Wisdom from the Road Less Traveled", 2001)

"Eliciting and mapping the participant's mental models, while necessary, is far from sufficient [...] the result of the elicitation and mapping process is never more than a set of causal attributions, initial hypotheses about the structure of a system, which must then be tested. Simulation is the only practical way to test these models. The complexity of the cognitive maps produced in an elicitation workshop vastly exceeds our capacity to understand their implications. Qualitative maps are simply too ambiguous and too difficult to simulate mentally to provide much useful information on the adequacy of the model structure or guidance about the future development of the system or the effects of policies." (John D Sterman, "Learning in and about complex systems", Systems Thinking Vol. 3 2003)

"Maps are models, and every model represents some aspect of reality or an idea that is of interest. A model is a simplification. It is an interpretation of reality that abstracts the aspects relevant to solving the problem at hand and ignores extraneous detail." (Eric Evans, "Domain-Driven Design: Tackling complexity in the heart of software", 2003)

"But because of the way in which depictions represent, there is a correspondence between parts and spatial relations of the representation and those of the object; this structural mapping, which confers a type of resemblance, underlies the way images convey specific content. In this respect images are like pictures. Unlike words and symbols, depictions are not arbitrarily paired with what they represent." (Stephen Kosslyn et al," The Case for Mental Imagery", 2006)

"The value of mapping is that it allows us to understand, plan, and communicate about some experience or phenomenon without having to actually 'be there'." (Robert B. Dilts, "From Coach to Awakener", 2003)

Systems Thinking: On Failure (Quotes)

"A complex system can fail in an infinite number of ways." (John Gall, "General Systemantics: How systems work, and especially how they fail", 1975)

"A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that worked. The inverse proposition also appears to be true: A complex system designed from scratch never works and cannot be made to work. You have to start over, beginning with a working simple system." (John Gall, "General Systemantics: How systems work, and especially how they fail", 1975)

"A system represents someone's solution to a problem. The system doesn't solve the problem." (John Gall, "General Systemantics: How systems work, and especially how they fail", 1975)

"Systems Are Seductive. They promise to do a hard job faster, better, and more easily than you could do it by yourself. But if you set up a system, you are likely to find your time and effort now being consumed in the care and feeding of the system itself. New problems are created by its very presence. Once set up, it won't go away, it grows and encroaches. It begins to do strange and wonderful things. Breaks down in ways you never thought possible. It kicks back, gets in the way, and opposes its own proper function. Your own perspective becomes distorted by being in the system. You become anxious and push on it to make it work. Eventually you come to believe that the misbegotten product it so grudgingly delivers is what you really wanted all the time. At that point encroachment has become complete. You have become absorbed. You are now a systems person." (John Gall, "General Systemantics: How systems work, and especially how they fail", 1975)

"The failure of individual subsystems to be sufficiently adaptive to changing environments results in the subsystems forming a collective association that, as a unit, is better able to function in new circumstances. Formation of such an association is a structural change; the behavioral role of the new conglomerate is a junctional change; both types of change are characteristic of the formation of hierarchies." (John L Casti, "On System Complexity: Identification, Measurement, and Management" [in "Complexity, Language, and Life: Mathematical Approaches"] 1986)

"The system always kicks back. - Systems get in the way - or, in slightly more elegant language: Systems tend to oppose their own proper functions. Systems tend to malfunction conspicuously just after their greatest triumph." (John Gall, "Systemantics: The underground text of systems lore", 1986)

"Physical systems are subject to the force of entropy, which increases until eventually the entire system fails. The tendency toward maximum entropy is a movement to disorder, complete lack of resource transformation, and death." (Stephen G Haines, "The Managers Pocket Guide to Systems Thinking & Learning", 1998)

"Most systems displaying a high degree of tolerance against failures are a common feature: Their functionality is guaranteed by a highly interconnected complex network. A cell's robustness is hidden in its intricate regulatory and metabolic network; society's resilience is rooted in the interwoven social web; the economy's stability is maintained by a delicate network of financial and regulator organizations; an ecosystem's survivability is encoded in a carefully crafted web of species interactions. It seems that nature strives to achieve robustness through interconnectivity. Such universal choice of a network architecture is perhaps more than mere coincidences." (Albert-László Barabási, "Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means for Business, Science, and Everyday Life", 2002)

"A fundamental reason for the difficulties with modern engineering projects is their inherent complexity. The systems that these projects are working with or building have many interdependent parts, so that changes in one part often have effects on other parts of the system. These indirect effects are frequently unanticipated, as are collective behaviors that arise from the mutual interactions of multiple components. Both indirect and collective effects readily cause intolerable failures of the system. Moreover, when the task of the system is intrinsically complex, anticipating the many possible demands that can be placed upon the system, and designing a system that can respond in all of the necessary ways, is not feasible. This problem appears in the form of inadequate specifications, but the fundamental issue is whether it is even possible to generate adequate specifications for a complex system." (Yaneer Bar-Yam, "Making Things Work: Solving Complex Problems in a Complex World", 2004)

"It is no longer sufficient for engineers merely to design boxes such as computers with the expectation that they would become components of larger, more complex systems. That is wasteful because frequently the box component is a bad fit in the system and has to be redesigned or worse, can lead to system failure. We must learn how to design large-scale, complex systems from the top down so that the specification for each component is derivable from the requirements for the overall system. We must also take a much larger view of systems. We must design the man-machine interfaces and even the system-society interfaces. Systems engineers must be trained for the design of large-scale, complex, man-machine-social systems." (A Wayne Wymore, "Systems Movement: Autobiographical Retrospectives", 2004)

"[…] in cybernetics, control is seen not as a function of one agent over something else, but as residing within circular causal networks, maintaining stabilities in a system. Circularities have no beginning, no end and no asymmetries. The control metaphor of communication, by contrast, punctuates this circularity unevenly. It privileges the conceptions and actions of a designated controller by distinguishing between messages sent in order to cause desired effects and feedback that informs the controller of successes or failures." (Klaus Krippendorff, "On Communicating: Otherness, Meaning, and Information", 2009)

"Experts in the 'Problem' area proceed to elaborate its complexity. They design complex Systems to attack it. This approach guarantees failure, at least for all but the most pedestrian tasks. The problem is a Problem precisely because it is incorrectly conceptualized in the first place, and a large System for studying and attacking the Problem merely locks in the erroneous conceptualization into the minds of everyone concerned. What is required is not a large System, but a different approach. Trying to design a System in the hope that the System will somehow solve the Problem, rather than simply solving the Problem in the first place, is to present oneself with two problems in place of one." (John Gall, "The Systems Bible: The Beginner's Guide to Systems Large and Small"[Systematics 3rd Ed.], 2011)

"Pragmatically, it is generally easier to aim at changing one or a few things at a time and then work out the unexpected effects, than to go to the opposite extreme. Attempting to correct everything in one grand design is appropriately designated as Grandiosity. […] A little Grandiosity goes a long way. […] The diagnosis of Grandiosity is quite elegantly and strictly made on a purely quantitative basis: How many features of the present System, and at what level, are to be corrected at once? If more than three, the plan is grandiose and will fail." (John Gall, "The Systems Bible: The Beginner's Guide to Systems Large and Small"[Systematics 3rd Ed.], 2011)

"Complex systems seem to have this property, with large periods of apparent stasis marked by sudden and catastrophic failures. These processes may not literally be random, but they are so irreducibly complex (right down to the last grain of sand) that it just won’t be possible to predict them beyond a certain level. […] And yet complex processes produce order and beauty when you zoom out and look at them from enough distance." (Nate Silver, "The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't", 2012)

"If an emerging system is born complex, there is neither leeway to abandon it when it fails, nor the means to join another, successful one. Such a system would be caught in an immovable grip, congested at the top, and prevented, by a set of confusing but locked–in precepts, from changing." (Lawrence K Samuels, "Defense of Chaos: The Chaology of Politics, Economics and Human Action", 2013)

"Stability is often defined as a resilient system that keeps processing transactions, even if transient impulses (rapid shocks to the system), persistent stresses (force applied to the system over an extended period), or component failures disrupt normal processing." (Michael Hüttermann et al, "DevOps for Developers", 2013)

"Although cascading failures may appear random and unpredictable, they follow reproducible laws that can be quantified and even predicted using the tools of network science. First, to avoid damaging cascades, we must understand the structure of the network on which the cascade propagates. Second, we must be able to model the dynamical processes taking place on these networks, like the flow of electricity. Finally, we need to uncover how the interplay between the network structure and dynamics affects the robustness of the whole system." (Albert-László Barabási, "Network Science", 2016)