24 April 2022

Mind: The Filtering Mind (Quotes)

"Nothing is easier than self-deceit. For what each man wishes, that he also believes to be true." (Demosthenes, "Olynthiac", 349 BC)

"Men willingly believe what they wish to be true." (Julius Caesar,"De Bello Gallico", Book III, 58–49 BC)

"Man prefers to believe what he prefers to be true." (Francis Bacon,"Novum Organum", 1620)

"The human understanding resembles not a dry light, but admits a tincture of the will and passions, which generate their own system accordingly; for man always believes more readily that which he prefers." (Sir Francis Bacon, "Novum Organum", 1620)

"People almost invariably arrive at their beliefs not on the basis of proof but on the basis of what they find attractive." (Blaise Pascal, "De l'Art de persuader" ["On the Art of Persuasion"], 1658)

"It is hard to prevent oneself from believing what one so keenly desires, and who can doubt that the interest we have in admitting or denying the reality of the Judgement to come determines the faith of most men in accordance with their hopes and fears." (Jean-Jacques Rousseau,"Reveries of the Solitary Walker", 1782)

"Because of the extended time image and the extended relationship images, man is capable of ‘rational behavior,’ that is to say, his response is not to an immediate stimulus but to an image of the future filtered through an elaborate value system.  His image contains not only what is, but what might be." (Kenneth E Boulding, "The Image: Knowledge in life and society", 1956)

"We say the map is different from the territory. But what is the territory? Operationally, somebody went out with a retina or a measuring stick and made representations which were then put on paper. What is on the paper map is a representation of what was in the retinal representation of the man who made the map; and as you push the question back, what you find is an infinite regress, an infinite series of maps. The territory never gets in at all. […] Always, the process of representation will filter it out so that the mental world is only maps of maps, ad infinitum." (Gregory Bateson, "Steps to an Ecology of Mind", 1972)

"In the province of the mind, what one believes to be true is true or becomes true, within certain limits to be found experientially and experimentally. These limits are further beliefs to be transcended. In the mind, there are no limit. […] In the province of connected minds, what the network believes to be true, either is true or becomes true within certain limits to be found experientially and experimentally. These limits are further beliefs to be transcended. In the network's mind there are no limits." (John C Lilly, "The Human Biocomputer", 1974)

"Nature is not ‘given’ to us - our minds are never virgin in front of reality. Whatever we say we see or observe is biased by what we already know, think, believe, or wish to see. Some of these thoughts, beliefs and knowledge can function as an obstacle to our understanding of the phenomena." (Anna Sierpinska, "Understanding in Mathematics", 1994)

"The abstractions of science are stereotypes, as two-dimensional and as potentially misleading as everyday stereotypes. And yet they are as necessary to the process of understanding as filtering is to the process of perception." (K C Cole, "First You Build a Cloud and Other Reflections on Physics as a Way of Life", 1999)

"We all would like to know more and, at the same time, to receive less information. In fact, the problem of a worker in today's knowledge industry is not the scarcity of information but its excess. The same holds for professionals: just think of a physician or an executive, constantly bombarded by information that is at best irrelevant. In order to learn anything we need time. And to make time we must use information filters allowing us to ignore most of the information aimed at us. We must ignore much to learn a little." (Mario Bunge, "Philosophy in Crisis: The Need for Reconstruction", 2001)

"The receiver decodes the symbols to interpret the meaning of the message. Encoding and decoding are potential sources for communication errors because knowledge, attitudes, and context act as filters and create noise when translating from symbols to meaning. Finally, feedback occurs when the receiver responds to the sender’s communication with a return message. Without feedback, the communication is one-way; with feedback, it is two-way. Feedback is a powerful aid to communication effectiveness because it enables the sender to determine whether the receiver correctly interpreted the message." (Richard L Daft & Dorothy Marcic, "Understanding Management" 5th Ed., 2006)

"Your mental models shape the way you see the world. They help you to quickly make sense of the noises that filter in from outside, but they can also limit your ability to see the true picture." (Colin Cook & Yoram R Wind, "The Power of Impossible Thinking: Transform the Business of Your Life and the Life of Your Business", 2006)

"Great stories agree with our worldview. The best stories don't teach people anything new. Instead the best stories agree with what the audience already believes and makes the members of the audience feel smart and secure when reminded how right they were in the thirst place." (Seth Godin, "All Marketers are Liars", 2009)

"Actually, around 80% of the data we use to make decisions is already in our heads before we engage with a situation. Our power to perceive is governed and limited by cognitive filters, sometimes termed our ‘mental model’. Mental models are formed as a result of past experience, knowledge and attitudes. They are deeply ingrained, often subconscious, structures that limit what we perceive and also colour our interpretation of supposed facts." (Robina Chatham & Brian Sutton, "Changing the IT Leader’s Mindset", 2010) 

"[…] our strong mental models tend to make us blind to certain possibilities, and therefore we unknowingly engage in biased listening. Whenever we interpret information, we subconsciously access three filters based upon how we feel about the content, the information source and situation (or context) in which we receive the information." (Robina Chatham & Brian Sutton, "Changing the IT Leader’s Mindset", 2010)

"Perception and memory are imprecise filters of information, and the way in which information is presented, that is, the frame, influences how it is received. Because too much information is difficult to deal with, people have developed shortcuts or heuristics in order to come up with reasonable decisions. Unfortunately, sometimes these heuristics lead to bias, especially when used outside their natural domains." (Lucy F Ackert & Richard Deaves, "Behavioral Finance: Psychology, Decision-Making, and Markets", 2010)

"When people believe a conclusion is true, they are also very likely to believe arguments that appear to support it, even when these arguments are unsound." (Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow", 2011)

"Mental models bind our awareness within a particular scaffold and then selectively can filter the content we subsequently receive. Through recalibration using revised mental models, we argue, we cultivate strategies anew, creating new habits, and galvanizing more intentional and evolved mental models. This recalibration often entails developing a strong sense of self and self-worth, realizing that each of us has a range of moral choices that may deviate from those in authority, and moral imagination." (Patricia H Werhane et al, "Obstacles to Ethical: Decision-Making Mental Models, Milgram and the Problem of Obedience", 2013)

"In the absence of clear information - in the absence of reliable statistics - people did what they had always done: filtered available information through the lens of their worldview." (Zachary Karabell, "The Leading Indicators: A short history of the numbers that rule our world", 2014)

"We are genetically predisposed to look for patterns and to believe that the patterns we observe are meaningful. […] Don’t be fooled into thinking that a pattern is proof. We need a logical, persuasive explanation and we need to test the explanation with fresh data." (Gary Smith, "Standard Deviations", 2014)

"Images are generally resistant to change and ignore messages that do not conform to their internal settings. Sometimes, however, they do react and can alter in an incremental or even revolutionary manner. Humans can talk about and share their images and, in the symbolic universe they create, reflect upon what is and what might be." (Michael C Jackson, "Critical Systems Thinking and the Management of Complexity", 2019)

"The contradiction between what we see with our own eyes and what the statistics claim can be very real. […] The truth is more complicated. Our personal experiences should not be dismissed along with our feelings, at least not without further thought. Sometimes the statistics give us a vastly better way to understand the world; sometimes they mislead us. We need to be wise enough to figure out when the statistics are in conflict with everyday experience - and in those cases, which to believe." (Tim Harford, "The Data Detective: Ten easy rules to make sense of statistics", 2020)

"We filter new information. If it accords with what we expect, we’ll be more likely to accept it. […] Our brains are always trying to make sense of the world around us based on incomplete information. The brain makes predictions about what it expects, and tends to fill in the gaps, often based on surprisingly sparse data." (Tim Harford, "The Data Detective: Ten easy rules to make sense of statistics", 2020)

"[…] mathematicians and poets are people who believe in the power of words, of concepts and giving names to concepts." (CĂ©dric Villani)

"Nothing is so easy as to deceive one's self; for what we wish, that we readily believe." (Democritus)

"The human brain is a complex organ with the wonderful power of enabling man to find reasons for continuing to believe whatever it is that he wants to believe." (Voltaire)

Science: On Belief (Quotes)

 "The processes of nature lie so deep, that, after all the pains we can take, much, perhaps, will remain undiscovered beyond the reach of human art or skill. But this is no reason why we should give ourselves up to the belief of fictions, be they ever so ingenious, instead of hearkening to the unerring voice of nature […]" (Colin Maclaurin, "An Account of Sir Isaac Newton’s Philosophical Discoveries", 1748)

"Man must cling to the belief that the incomprehensible is comprehensible. Else he would give up investigating. " (Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, "Maxims and Reflections", 1829)

"By degree of probability we really mean, or ought to mean, degree of belief [...] Probability then, refers to and implies belief, more or less, and belief is but another name for imperfect knowledge, or it may be, expresses the mind in a state of imperfect knowledge." (Augustus De Morgan, "Formal Logic: Or, The Calculus of Inference, Necessary and Probable", 1847)

"Science for the past is a description, for the future a belief." (Karl Pearson, "The Grammar of Science", 1892)

"Induction applied to the physical sciences is always uncertain, because it rests on the belief in a general order of the universe, an order outside of us." (Henri Poincaré, "Science and Hypothesis", 1901)

"It [science] involves an intelligent and persistent endeavor to revise current beliefs so as to weed out what is erroneous, to add to their accuracy, and, above all, to give them such shape that the dependencies of the various facts upon one another may be as obvious as possible." (John Dewey,"Democracy and Education", 1916)

"Science herself consults her heart when she lays it down that the infinite ascertainment of fact and correction of false belief are the supreme goods for man." (William James, "Selected Papers on Philosophy", 1918)

"The belief in science has replaced in large measure, the belief in God. Even where religion was regarded as compatible with science, it was modified by the mentality of the believer in scientific truth." (Hans Reichenbach, "The Rise of Scientific Philosophy", 1951)

"I find it more difficult, but also much more fun, to get the right answer by indirect reasoning and before all the evidence is in. It’s what a theoretician does in science. But the conclusions drawn in this way are obviously more risky than those drawn by direct measurement, and most scientists withhold judgment until there is more direct evidence available. The principal function of such detective work - apart from entertaining the theoretician - is probably to so annoy and enrage the observationalists that they are forced, in a fury of disbelief, to perform the critical measurements." (Carl Sagan, "The Cosmic Connection: An Extraterrestrial Perspective", 1975)

"The purpose of scientific enquiry is not to compile an inventory of factual information, nor to build up a totalitarian world picture of Natural Laws in which every event that is not compulsory is forbidden. We should think of it rather as a logically articulated structure of justifiable beliefs about nature. It begins as a story about a Possible World - a story which we invent and criticize and modify as we go along, so that it winds by being, as nearly as we can make it, a story about real life." (Sir Peter B Medawar, "Pluto’s Republic: Incorporating the Art of the Soluble and Induction Intuition in Scientific Thought", 1982)

"The scientific method is a potentiation of common sense, exercised with a specially firm determination not to persist in error if any exertion of hand or mind can deliver us from it. Like other exploratory processes, it can be resolved into a dialogue between fact and fancy, the actual and the possible; between what could be true and what is in fact the case. The purpose of scientific enquiry is not to compile an inventory of factual information, nor to build up a totalitarian world picture of Natural Laws in which every event that is not compulsory is forbidden. We should think of it rather as a logically articulated structure of justifiable beliefs about nature. It begins as a story about a Possible World - a story which we invent and criticise and modify as we go along, so that it ends by being, as nearly as we can make it, a story about real life." (Sir Peter B Medawar, "Pluto’s Republic: Incorporating the Art of the Soluble and Induction Intuition in Scientific Thought", 1982)

"The degree of confirmation assigned to any given hypothesis is sensitive to properties of the entire belief system [...] simplicity, plausibility, and conservatism are properties that theories have in virtue of their relation to the whole structure of scientific beliefs taken collectively. A measure of conservatism or simplicity would be a metric over global properties of belief systems." (Jerry Fodor, "Modularity of Mind", 1983)

"To a considerable degree science consists in originating the maximum amount of information with the minimum expenditure of energy. Beauty is the cleanness of line in such formulations along with symmetry, surprise, and congruence with other prevailing beliefs." (Edward O Wilson,"Biophilia", 1984)

"Modern philosophy of science has gone far beyond the naive belief that science reveals the truth. Even if it could, we would have no means of proving it. Certainty seems unattainable. All scientific statements remain open to doubt. […] We cannot reach the absolute at least as far as science is concerned; we have to content ourselves with the relative." (Rolf Sattler, "Biophilosophy", 1986)

"Cybernetics is simultaneously the most important science of the age and the least recognized and understood. It is neither robotics nor freezing dead people. It is not limited to computer applications and it has as much to say about human interactions as it does about machine intelligence. Today’s cybernetics is at the root of major revolutions in biology, artificial intelligence, neural modeling, psychology, education, and mathematics. At last there is a unifying framework that suspends long-held differences between science and art, and between external reality and internal belief." (Paul Pangaro, "New Order From Old: The Rise of Second-Order Cybernetics and Its Implications for Machine Intelligence", 1988)

"The use of Occam’s razor, along with the related critical, skeptical view toward any speculations about the unknown, is perhaps the most misunderstood aspect of the scientific method. People confuse doubt with denial. Science doesn’t deny anything, but it doubts everything not required by the data. Note, however, that doubt does not necessarily mean rejection, just an attitude of disbelief that can be changed when the facts require it." (Victor J Stenger, "Physics and Psychics: The Search for a World Beyond the Senses", 1990)

"On this view, we recognize science to be the search for algorithmic compressions. We list sequences of observed data. We try to formulate algorithms that compactly represent the information content of those sequences. Then we test the correctness of our hypothetical abbreviations by using them to predict the next terms in the string. These predictions can then be compared with the future direction of the data sequence. Without the development of algorithmic compressions of data all science would be replaced by mindless stamp collecting - the indiscriminate accumulation of every available fact. Science is predicated upon the belief that the Universe is algorithmically compressible and the modern search for a Theory of Everything is the ultimate expression of that belief, a belief that there is an abbreviated representation of the logic behind the Universe's properties that can be written down in finite form by human beings." (John D Barrow, New Theories of Everything", 1991)

"The most persuasive positive argument for mental images as objects is [that] whenever one thinks one is seeing something there must be something one is seeing. It might be an object directly, or it might be a mental picture. [This] point is so plausible that it is deniable only at the peril of becoming arbitrary. One should concede that the question whether mental images are entities of some sort is not resolvable by logical or linguistic analysis, and believe what makes sense of experience." (Eva T H Brann, "The World of Imagination" , 1991)

"The worst, i.e., most dangerous, feature of 'accepting the null hypothesis' is the giving up of explicit uncertainty. [...] Mathematics can sometimes be put in such black-and-white terms, but our knowledge or belief about the external world never can." (John Tukey, "The Philosophy of Multiple Comparisons", Statistical Science Vol. 6 (1), 1991)

"The belief that the underlying order of the world can be expressed in mathematical form lies at the very heart of science. So deep does this belief run that a branch of science is considered not to be properly understood until it can be cast in mathematics." (Paul C W Davies, "The Mind of God: The Scientific Basis for a Rational World", 1992)

"The most natural way to give an independence proof is to establish a model with the required properties. This is not the only way to proceed since one can attempt to deal directly and analyze the structure of proofs. However, such an approach to set theoretic questions is unnatural since all our intuition come from our belief in the natural, almost physical model of the mathematical universe." (Paul J Cohen, Set Theory and the Continuum Hypothesis", 1966) instead of with words, sounds or watercolors." (John Casti, "Reality Rules", 1992)

"A fundamental difference between religious and scientific thought is that the received beliefs in religion are ultimately based on revelations or pronouncements, usually by some long dead prophet or priest.[...] Dogma is interpreted by a caste of priests and is accepted by the multitude on faith or under duress. In contrast, the statements of science are derived from the data of observations and experiment, and from the manipulation of these data according to logical and often mathematical procedures." (John A Moore, "Science as a Way of Knowing: The Foundations of Modern Biology", 1993)

"Our beliefs about ourselves in relation to the world around us are the roots of our values, and our values determine not only our immediate actions, but also, over the course of time, the form of our society. Our beliefs are increasingly determined by science." (Henry P Stapp, "Mind, Matter and Quantum Mechanics", 1993)

"Science demands a tolerance for ambiguity. Where we are ignorant, we withhold belief. Whatever annoyance the uncertainty engenders serves a higher purpose: It drives us to accumulate better data. This attitude is the difference between science and so much else. Science offers little in the way of cheap thrills. The standards of evidence are strict. But when followed they allow us to see far, illuminating even a great darkness." (Carl Sagan, "Pale Blue Dot: A Vision of the Human Future in Space", 1994)

"Having a scientific outlook means being willing to divest yourself of a pet hypothesis, whether it relates to easy self-help improvements, homeopathy, graphology, spontaneous generation, or any other concept, when the data produced by a carefully designed experiment contradict that hypothesis. Retaining a belief in a hypothesis that cannot be supported by data is the hallmark of both the pseudoscientist and the fanatic. Often the more deeply held the hypothesis, the more reactionary is the response to nonsupportive data." (Michael Zimmerman, "Science, Nonscience, and Nonsense: Approaching Environmental Literacy", 1995)

"To talk about sensemaking is to talk about reality as an ongoing accomplishment that takes form when people make retrospective sense of the situations in which they find themselves and their creations. There is a strong reflexive quality to this process. People make sense of things by seeing a world on which they already imposed what they believe. In other words, people discover their own inventions. This is why sensemaking can be understood as invention and interpretations understood as discovery. These are complementary ideas. If sensemaking is viewed as an act of invention, then it is also possible to argue that the artifacts it produces include language games and texts." (Karl E Weick, "Sensemaking in Organizations", 1995)

"If 'memory' is a misleading metaphor for recording devices, so is the epithet 'problem solver' for our computing machines. Of course, they are no problem solvers, because they do not have any problems in the first place. It is our problems they help us solve like any other useful tool, say, a hammer which may be dubbed a 'problem solver' for driving nails into a board. The danger in this subtle semantic twist by which the responsibility for action is shifted from man to a machine lies in making us lose sight of the problem of cognition. By making us believe that the issue is how to find solutions to some well defined problems, we may forget to ask first what constitutes a 'problem', what is its 'solution', and - when a problem is identified - what makes us want to solve it." (Heinz von Foerster, "Understanding Understanding: Essays on Cybernetics and Cognition", 2003)

"Randomness is a difficult notion for people to accept. When events come in clusters and streaks, people look for explanations and patterns. They refuse to believe that such patterns - which frequently occur in random data - could equally well be derived from tossing a coin. So it is in the stock market as well." (Didier Sornette, "Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical events in complex financial systems", 2003)

"Often our mental models serve a very useful and practical purpose by helping us to make very quick sense of our experiences and interactions. However, the danger for us is that our mental models do not always reflect the truth, i.e. the way things really are. Often they reflect what we believe to be true, and sometimes we get it wrong." (John Middleton, "Upgrade Your Brain: 52 brilliant ideas for everyday genius", 2006)

"Great stories agree with our worldview. The best stories don't teach people anything new. Instead the best stories agree with what the audience already believes and makes the members of the audience feel smart and secure when reminded how right they were in the thirst place." (Seth Godin, "All Marketers are Liars", 2009)

"Each person has a different mental model and, therefore, potentially a different interpretation of the Facts. The danger comes when we start to assume that our interpretation of the Facts is the only interpretation and we believe that what we see and think is the Truth, and that there is only one Truth." (Robina Chatham & Brian Sutton, "Changing the IT Leader’s Mindset", 2010)

"[…] many gamblers believe in the fallacious law of averages because they are eager to find a profitable pattern in the chaos created by random chance." (Gary Smith, "Standard Deviations", 2014)

"We are genetically predisposed to look for patterns and to believe that the patterns we observe are meaningful. […] Don’t be fooled into thinking that a pattern is proof. We need a logical, persuasive explanation and we need to test the explanation with fresh data." (Gary Smith, "Standard Deviations", 2014)

Systems Thinking: On Belief (Quotes)

"SYSTEM (to place together) - is a full and connected view of all the truths of some department of knowledge. An organized body of truth, or truths arranged under one and the same idea, which idea is as the life or soul which assimilates all those truths. No truth is altogether isolated. Every truth has relation to some other. And we should try to unite the facts of our knowledge so as to see them in their several bearings. This we do when we frame them into a system. To do so legitimately we must begin by analysis and end with synthesis. But system applies not only to our knowledge, but to the objects of our knowledge. Thus we speak of the planetary system, the muscular system, the nervous system. We believe that the order to which we would reduce our ideas has a foundation in the nature of things. And it is this belief that encourages us to reduce our knowledge of things into systematic order. The doing so is attended with many advantages. At the same time a spirit of systematizing may be carried too far. It is only in so far as it is in accordance with the order of nature that it can be useful or sound. (William Fleming, "Vocabulary of philosophy, mental, moral, and metaphysical; with quotations and references; for the use of students", 1857)

"Up until now most economists have concerned themselves with linear systems, not because of any belief that the facts were so simple, but rather because of the mathematical difficulties involved in nonlinear systems [... Linear systems are] mathematically simple, and exact solutions are known. But a high price is paid for this simplicity in terms of special assumptions which must be made." (Paul A Samuelson, "Foundations of Economic Analysis", 1966)

"Most of our beliefs about complex organizations follow from one or the other of two distinct strategies. The closed-system strategy seeks certainty by incorporating only those variables positively associated with goal achievement and subjecting them to a monolithic control network. The open-system strategy shifts attention from goal achievement to survival and incorporates uncertainty by recognizing organizational interdependence with environment. A newer tradition enables us to conceive of the organization as an open system, indeterminate and faced with uncertainty, but subject to criteria of rationality and hence needing certainty." (James D Thompson, "Organizations in Action", 1967)

"In the province of the mind, what one believes to be true is true or becomes true, within certain limits to be found experientially and experimentally. These limits are further beliefs to be transcended. In the mind, there are no limit. […] In the province of connected minds, what the network believes to be true, either is true or becomes true within certain limits to be found experientially and experimentally. These limits are further beliefs to be transcended. In the network's mind there are no limits."(John C Lilly, "The Human Biocomputer", 1974)

"The connection between cause and effect takes place in time. This temporary relation may be defined in various ways. Some people believe that cause always precedes effect, that there is a certain interval between the time when the cause begins to act (for example, the interaction of two systems) and the time the effect appears. For a certain time cause and effect coexist, then the cause dies out and the consequence ultimately becomes the cause of something else. And so on to infinity." (Alexander Spirkin, "Dialectical Materialism", 1983)

"Dangers lurk in all systems. Systems incorporate the unexamined beliefs of their creators. Adopt a system, accept its beliefs, and you help strengthen the resistance to change." (Frank Herbert, "God Emperor of Dune", 1984)

"Beliefs are those ideas we take as true and use to guide our actions. We all have beliefs about what sort of people we are and what we are capable of. These beliefs act as permissions for or limitations on what we do. When we believe something is possible, we will try it; if we believe it impossible, we will not." (Joseph O’Connor, "Leading With NLP: Essential Leadership Skills for Influencing and Managing People", 1998)

"Of course, the information systems governing the feedback we receive can change as we learn. They are part of the feedback structure of our systems. Through our mental models we define constructs such as GDP or scientific research, create metrics for these ideas, and design information systems to evaluate and report them. These then condition the perceptions we form. Changes in our mental models are constrained by what we previously chose to define, measure, and attend to. Seeing is believing and believing is seeing. They feed back on one another." (John D Sterman, "Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world", 2000)

"Agent subroutines may pass information back and forth, but subroutines are not changed as a result of the interaction, as people are. In real social interaction, information is exchanged, but also something else, perhaps more important: individuals exchange rules, tips, beliefs about how to process the information. Thus a social interaction typically results in a change in the thinking processes - not just the contents - of the participants." (James F Kennedy et al, "Swarm Intelligence", 2001)

"There are endless examples of elaborate structures and apparently complex processes being generated through simple repetitive rules, all of which can be easily simulated on a computer. It is therefore tempting to believe that, because many complex patterns can be generated out of a simple algorithmic rule, all complexity is created in this way." (F David Peat, "From Certainty to Uncertainty", 2002)

"Gaining awareness about how the system is built up and how it works can also help us to avoid solutions that only treat the symptoms of an underlying problem without curing the problem itself. System thinking is powerful because it helps us to see our own mental models and how these models color our perception of the world. In many cases, it is difficult for us to alter our mental models. There are always some beliefs or viewpoints that we are not willing to change, no matter what evidence is presented against it. This causes a certain resistance to new concepts. Problems can occur, however, when a rigid mental model stands in the way of a solution that might solve a problem. In such situations, adherence to mental models can be dangerous to the health of the organization. (Akhilesh Bajaj & Stanisław Wrycza, "Systems Analysis and Design for Advanced Modeling Methods: Best Practices", 2009)

"A belief model is clung to not because it is 'correct'  - there is no way to know this - but rather because it has worked in the past and must cumulate a record of failure before it is worth discarding. In general, there may be a constant slow turnover of hypotheses acted upon. One could speak of this as a system of temporarily fulfilled expectations - beliefs or models or hypotheses that are temporarily fulfilled (though not perfectly), which give way to different beliefs or hypotheses when they cease to be fulfilled." (W Brian Arthur, "Complexity and the Economy", 2015) 

"In the classical deterministic scenario, a model consists of a few variables and physical constants. The relational structure of the model is conceptualized by the scientist via intuition gained from thinking about the physical world. Intuition means that the scientist has some mental construct regarding the interactions beyond positing a skeletal mathematical system he believes is sufficiently rich to capture the interactions and then depending upon data to infer the relational structure and estimate a large number of parameters." (Edward R Dougherty, "The Evolution of Scientific Knowledge: From certainty to uncertainty", 2016)

Mind: On Beliefs (Quotes)

"As being is to become, so is truth to belief" (Plato,"Timaeus", cca. 360 BC)

"Man must cling to the belief that the incomprehensible is comprehensible. Else he would give up investigating. " (Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, "Maxims and Reflections", 1829)

"A belief in a proposition is a controlled and contented habit of acting in ways that will be productive of desired results only if the proposition is true; An affirmation is an act of an utterer of a proposition to an interpreter, and consists, in the first place, in the deliberate exercise, in uttering the proposition, of a force tending to determine a belief in it in the mind of the interpreter." (Charles S Peirce, "New Elements" ["Kaina stoiceia"], 1904)

"The most violent revolutions in an individual's beliefs leave most of his old order standing. Time and space, cause and effect, nature and history, and one's own biography remain untouched. New truth is always a go-between, a smoother-over of transitions. It marries old opinion to new fact so as ever to show a minimum of jolt, a maximum of continuity." (William James, "What Pragmatism Means", 1907)

"In fact, the opposition of instinct and reason is mainly illusory. Instinct, intuition, or insight is what first leads to the beliefs which subsequent reason confirms or confutes; but the confirmation, where it is possible, consists, in the last analysis, of agreement with other beliefs no less instinctive. Reason is a harmonising, controlling force rather than a creative one. Even in the most purely logical realms, it is insight that first arrives at what is new." (Bertrand Russell,"Our Knowledge of the External World", 1914)

"Instinct, intuition, or insight is what first leads to the beliefs which subsequent reason confirms or confutes; [...]" (Bertrand Russell, Our Knowledge of the External World", 1914)

"As words are not the things we speak about, and structure is the only link between them, structure becomes the only content of knowledge. If we gamble on verbal structures that have no observable empirical structures, such gambling can never give us any structural information about the world. Therefore such verbal structures are structurally obsolete, and if we believe in them, they induce delusions or other semantic disturbances." (Alfred Korzybski, "Science and Sanity: An Introduction to Non-Aristotelian Systems and General Semantics", 1933)

"It happens at times that a person believes that he has a world-view, but that there is yet one particular phenomenon that is of such a nature that it baffles the understanding, and that he explains differently and attempts to ignore in order not to harbor the thought that this phenomenon might overthrow the whole view, or that his reflection does not possess enough courage and resolution to penetrate the phenomenon with his world-view." (Søren Kierkegaard, 1938)

"In every writer on philosophy there is a concealed metaphysic, usually unconscious; even if his subject is metaphysics, he is almost certain to have an uncritically believed system which underlies his specific arguments." (Bertrand Russell, "Dewey’s New Logic" [in"The Philosophy of John Dewey", ed. by Paul A Schilpp & Lewis E Hahn, 1939])

"Classes and concepts may, however, also be conceived as real objects, namely classes as 'pluralities of things' or as structures consisting of a plurality of things and concepts as the properties and relations of things existing independently of our definitions and constructions. It seems to me that the assumption of such objects is quite as legitimate as the assumption of physical bodies and there is quite as much reason to believe in their existence. They are in the same sense necessary to obtain a satisfactory system of mathematics as physical bodies are necessary for a satisfactory theory of our sense perceptions." (Kurt Gödel, "The Philosophy of Bertrand Russell", 1944)

"Belief has its structures, and its symbols change. Its tradition changes. All the relationships within these forms are inter-dependent. We look at the symbols, we hope to read them, we hope for sharing and communication." (Muriel Rukeyser, "The Life of Poetry", 1949)

"As a set of cognitive beliefs, religion is a speculative hypothesis of an extremely low order of probability." (Sidney Hook, The Partisan Review, 1950)

"For imagination sets the goal picture which our automatic mechanism works on. We act, or fail to act, not because of will, as is so commonly believed, but because of imagination." (Maxwell Maltz, "Psycho-Cybernetics", 1960)

"Freedom can be manifested only in the void of beliefs, in the absence of axioms, and only where the laws have no more authority than a hypothesis." (Emil Cioran, "History and Utopia", 1960)

"A world view is not merely a philosophical by-product of each culture, like a shadow, but the very skeleton of concrete cognitive assumptions on which the flesh of customary behavior is hung. World view, accordingly, may be expressed, more or less systematically in cosmology, philosophy, ethics, religious ritual, scientific belief, and so on, but it is implicit in almost every act. In Parsonian terms, it constitutes the set of cognitive orientations of the members of a society." (Anthony F C Wallace, "Culture and Personality", 1961)

"All our language is composed of brief little dreams; and the wonderful thing is that we sometimes make of them strangely accurate and marvelously reasonable thoughts. […] What should we be without the help of that which does not exist? Very little. And our unoccupied minds would languish if fables, mistaken notions, abstractions, beliefs, and monsters, hypotheses, and the so-called problems of metaphysics did not people with beings and objectless images our natural depths and darkness. Myths are the souls of our actions and our loves. We cannot act without moving towards a phantom. We can love only what we create." (Paul ValĂ©ry,"The Outlook for Intelligence", 1962)

"There are metaphysical problems, which cannot be disposed of by declaring them meaningless. For, as I have repeatedly said, they are ‘beyond physics’ indeed and demand an act of faith. We have to accept this fact to be honest. There are two objectionable types of believers: those who believe the incredible and those who believe that ‘belief’ must be discarded and replaced by 'the scientific method'." (Max Born,"Natural Philosophy of Cause and Chance", 1964)

"The belief that there is only one truth and that oneself is in possession of it, seems to me the deepest root of all that is evil in the world." (Max Born, "Natural Philosophy of Cause and Chance", 1964)

"There are metaphysical problems, which cannot be disposed of by declaring them meaningless. For, as I have repeatedly said, they are ‘beyond physics’ indeed and demand an act of faith. We have to accept this fact to be honest. There are two objectionable types of believers: those who believe the incredible and those who believe that ‘belief’ must be discarded and replaced by 'the scientific method'." (Max Born, "Natural Philosophy of Cause and Chance", 1964)

"The fact that theories are not subject to absolute and final proof has led to a serious vulgar misapprehension. Theory is contrasted with fact as if the two had no relationship or were antitheses: 'Evolution is only a theory, not a fact'. Of course, theories are not facts. They are generalizations about facts and explanations of facts, based on and tested by facts. As such they may be just as certain - merit just as much confidence - as what are popularly termed 'facts'. Belief that the sun will rise tomorrow is the confident application of a generalization. The theory that life has evolved is founded on much more evidence than supports the generalization that the sun rises every day. In the vernacular, we are justified in calling both 'facts'." (George G Simpson, Life: An Introduction to Biology, 1965)

"The higher we climb the ladder of epistemic abstraction the less we ourselves appear in our picture of the world and the better we are at explaining our own experiences. On the other hand, by remaining close to the senses we will not transcend superficial, anthropocentric world views. In short, although experience is a test of our theories it is not the stuff our theories are made of or even the referent of physical theories: human experience proper is the subject of nonphysical sciences like psychology. These platitudes had to be stated on account of the widespread belief that in physics only observational predicates matter - a belief inherited from philosophies at variance with science." (Mario Bunge, "Foundations of Physics", 1967)

"A schema, then is a data structure for representing the generic concepts stored in memory. There are schemata representing our knowledge about all concepts; those underlying objects, situations, events, sequences of events, actions and sequences of actions. A schema contains, as part of its specification, the network of interrelations that is believed to normally hold among the constituents of the concept in question. A schema theory embodies a prototype theory of meaning. That is, inasmuch as a schema underlying a concept stored in memory corresponds to the meaning of that concept, meanings are encoded in terms of the typical or normal situations or events that instantiate that concept." (David E Rumelhart, "Schemata: The building blocks of cognition", 1980)

"Once we have accepted a configuration of schemata, the schemata themselves provide a richness that goes far beyond our observations. […] In fact, once we have determined that a particular schema accounts for some event, we may not be able to determine which aspects of our beliefs are based on direct sensory information and which are merely consequences of our interpretation." (David E Rumelhart, "Schemata: The building blocks of cognition", 1980)

"The degree of confirmation assigned to any given hypothesis is sensitive to properties of the entire belief system [...] simplicity, plausibility, and conservatism are properties that theories have in virtue of their relation to the whole structure of scientific beliefs taken collectively. A measure of conservatism or simplicity would be a metric over global properties of belief systems." (Jerry Fodor, "Modularity of Mind", 1983)

"A culture may be conceived as a network of beliefs and purposes in which any string in the net pulls and is pulled by the others, thus perpetually changing the configuration of the whole. If the cultural element called morals takes on a new shape, we must ask what other strings have pulled it out of line. It cannot be one solitary string, nor even the strings nearby, for the network is three-dimensional at least." (Jacques Barzun, "The Culture We Deserve", 1989)

"It is always hard when reality intrudes on belief." (Alan D Foster, "Cyber Way", 1990)

"A model can not be proved to be correct; at best it can only be found to be reasonably consistant and not to contradict some of our beliefs of what reality is." (Richard W Hamming, "The Art of Probability for Scientists and Engineers", 1991)

"The leading edge of growth of intelligence is at the cultural and societal level. It is like a mind that is struggling to wake up. This is necessary because the most difficult problems we face are now collective ones. They are caused by complex global interactions and are beyond the scope of individuals to understand and solve. Individual mind, with its isolated viewpoints and narrow interests, is no longer enough." (Jeff Wright, "Basic Beliefs", [email] 1995)

"The mental model, in turn, can be considered as a syntactic language of thought whose semantic interpretation is provided by the actual world. In this sense, a person's beliefs are true to the extent that they correspond to the world." (William J Rapaport, "Understanding Understanding: Syntactic Semantics and Computational Cognition", Philosophical Perspectives Vol. 9, 1995)

"Beliefs are those ideas we take as true and use to guide our actions. We all have beliefs about what sort of people we are and what we are capable of. These beliefs act as permissions for or limitations on what we do. When we believe something is possible, we will try it; if we believe it impossible, we will not." (Joseph O’Connor, "Leading With NLP: Essential Leadership Skills for Influencing and Managing People", 1998)

"People respond to their experience, not to reality itself. We do not know what reality is. Our senses, beliefs, and past experience give us a map of the world from which to operate." (Joseph O’Connor, "Leading With NLP: Essential Leadership Skills for Influencing and Managing People", 1998)

"To begin with, we must understand that any mindset consists of mental models, or concepts, that influence our interpretation of situations and predispose us to certain responses. These models, which are replete with beliefs and assumptions, thus strongly determine the way we understand the world and act in it. The irony is, they become so ingrained in us, as tendencies and predispositions, that we seldom pay attention to them." (Stephen G Haines, "The Manager's Pocket Guide to Strategic and Business Planning", 1998)

"Probability is not about the odds, but about the belief in the existence of an alternative outcome, cause, or motive." (Nassim N Taleb, "Fooled by Randomness", 2001)

"The danger arises when a culture takes its own story as the absolute truth, and seeks to impose this truth on others as the yardstick of all knowledge and belief." (F David Peat, "From Certainty to Uncertainty", 2002)

"We must begin by distinguishing between visual mental imagery and visual perception: Visual perception occurs while a stimulus is being viewed, and includes functions such as visual recognition (i. e., registering that a stimulus is familiar) and identification (i. e., recalling the name, context, or other information associated with the object). Two types of mechanisms are used in visual perception: ‘bottom-up’ mechanisms are driven by the input from the eyes; in contrast, ‘top-down’ mechanisms make use of stored information (such as knowledge, belief, expectations, and goals). Visual mental imagery is a set of representations that gives rise to the experience of viewing a stimulus in the absence of appropriate sensory input. In this case, information in memory underlies the internal events that produce the experience. Unlike afterimages, mental images are relatively prolonged." (Stephen M Kosslyn, "Mental images and the brain", Cognitive Neuropsychology 22, 2005)

"Context is not as simple as being in a different space [...] context includes elements like our emotions, recent experiences, beliefs, and the surrounding environment - each element possesses attributes, that when considered in a certain light, informs what is possible in the discussion." (George Siemens, "Knowing Knowledge", 2006)

"Our generational perspective contributes to the mental models we hold about ourselves, the world, and the way things ‘should’ be. These beliefs create blind spots that can become our undoing as we pursue our values and seek to accomplish our goals. Likewise, they can have a powerful effect on our culture." (Deborah Gilburg,"Empowering Multigenerational Collaboration in the Workplace", The Systems Thinker Vol. 18 No. 4, 2007)

"Mental models reflect the beliefs, values, and assumptions that we personally hold, and they underlie our reasons for doing things the way we do." (Kambiz E Maani & Robert Y Cavana,"Systems Methodology", The Systems Thinker Vol. 18 No. 8, 2007)

"Abstraction is a mental process we use when trying to discern what is essential or relevant to a problem; it does not require a belief in abstract entities." (Tom G Palmer, Realizing Freedom: Libertarian Theory, History, and Practice, 2009)

"System dynamics models have little impact unless they change the way people perceive a situation. A model must help to organize information in a more understandable way. A model should link the past to the present by showing how present conditions arose, and extend the present into persuasive alternative futures under a variety of scenarios determined by policy alternatives. In other words, a system dynamics model, if it is to be effective, must communicate with and modify the prior mental models. Only people's beliefs - that is, their mental models - will determine action. Computer models must relate to and improve mental models if the computer models are to fill an effective role." (Jay W Forrester, "Modeling for What Purpose?", The Systems Thinker Vol. 24 (2), 2013)

"The search for better numbers, like the quest for new technologies to improve our lives, is certainly worthwhile. But the belief that a few simple numbers, a few basic averages, can capture the multifaceted nature of national and global economic systems is a myth. Rather than seeking new simple numbers to replace our old simple numbers, we need to tap into both the power of our information age and our ability to construct our own maps of the world to answer the questions we need answering." (Zachary Karabell, "The Leading Indicators: A short history of the numbers that rule our world", 2014)

"Context is not as simple as being in a different space [...] context includes elements like our emotions, recent experiences, beliefs, and the surrounding environment - each element possesses attributes, that when considered in a certain light, informs what is possible in the discussion." (George Siemens, "Knowing Knowledge", 2006)

"A general limitation of the human mind is its imperfect ability to reconstruct past states of knowledge, or beliefs that have changed. Once you adopt a new view of the world (or any part of it), you immediately lose much of your ability to recall what you used to believe before your mind changed." (Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow", 2011)

"Mental models and rules are intimately intertwined, since the models often suggest clear rules for societies to follow. Religions are more than theories; they are prescriptive moral codes that seek to enforce rules on their followers. They, like the rules they enjoin, are invested with considerable emotional meaning and therefore are believed for intrinsic reasons and not simply because they are accurate or useful. While religious beliefs cannot be verified, they are also difficult to falsify. All of this reinforces the fundamental conservatism of human societies, because mental models of reality once adopted are hard to change in the light of new evidence that they are not working." (Francis Fukuyama, "The Origins of Political Order", 2011)

"The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little." (Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow", 2011)

"A belief model is clung to not because it is 'correct'  - there is no way to know this - but rather because it has worked in the past and must cumulate a record of failure before it is worth discarding. In general, there may be a constant slow turnover of hypotheses acted upon. One could speak of this as a system of temporarily fulfilled expectations - beliefs or models or hypotheses that are temporarily fulfilled (though not perfectly), which give way to different beliefs or hypotheses when they cease to be fulfilled." (W Brian Arthur, "Complexity and the Economy", 2015)

"Learning is a dynamic event and so the belief that learning is primarily about the acquisition of facts is fundamentally flawed - the acquisition and manipulation of data is at best a prerequisite to learning. Real learning involves acquiring knowledge and understanding." (William Byers, "Deep Thinking: What Mathematics Can Teach Us About the Mind", 2015)

"Our beliefs are based on our experience, which gives us a very incomplete picture of the world, and it's easy to jump to false conclusions." (Pedro Domingos, "The Master Algorithm", 2015)

"We carry out localized deductions based on our current hypotheses and act on them. As feedback from the environment comes in, we may strengthen or weaken our beliefs in our current hypotheses, discarding some when they cease to perform, and replacing them as needed with new ones. In other words, when we cannot fully reason or lack full definition of the problem, we use simple models to fill the gaps in our understanding. Such behavior is inductive." (W Brian Arthur, "Complexity and the Economy", 2015)

"A worldview consists of observations of the individual and other people with respect to the self, time and space, the natural and the supernatural and the sacred and profane. […] Beliefs about the world do not reside in the human mind in chaotic disorder; rather they form a latent system. A worldview cannot, however, be viewed as a well-organised network of cognitive models or a static collection of values; instead it should be regarded as the product of a process shaped by historical, cultural and social perspectives and contexts." (Helena Helve,"A longitudinal perspective on worldviews, values and identities", 2016)

09 April 2022

Mind: On Perspective (Quotes)

"Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth." (Marcus Aurelius, "Meditations", cca. 2nd century)

"Among all the studies of natural causes and reasoning, Light chiefly delights the beholder; and among the great features of mathematics the certainty of its demonstrations is what preeminently tends to elevate the mind of the investigator: Perspective, therefore, might be preferred to all the discourses and systems of the human learning." (Leonardo da Vinci, 1497)

"Reduced to their most pregnant difference, empiricism means the habit of explaining wholes by parts, and rationalism means the habit of explaining parts by wholes. Rationalism thus preserves affinities with monism, since wholeness goes with union, while empiricism inclines to pluralistic views. No philosophy can ever be anything but a summary sketch, a picture of the world in abridgment, a foreshortened bird's-eye view of the perspective of events. And the first thing to notice is this, that the only material we have at our disposal for making a picture of the whole world is supplied by the various portions of that world of which we have already had experience. We can invent no new forms of conception, applicable to the whole exclusively, and not suggested originally by the parts." (William James, "A Pluralistic Universe", 1908)

"Methods, when classified and separated, acquire their true bearing and perspective as a means to an end, not as ends in themselves." (Benjamin N Cardozo, "The Growth of the Law", 1924)

"The thinking person goes over the same ground many times. He looks at it from varying points of view - his own, his arch-enemy’s, others’. He diagrams it, verbalizes it, formulates equations, constructs visual images of the whole problem, or of troublesome parts, or of what is clearly known. But he does not keep a detailed record of all this mental work, indeed could not. […] Deep understanding of a domain of knowledge requires knowing it in various ways. This multiplicity of perspectives grows slowly through hard work and sets the state for the re-cognition we experience as a new insight." (Howard E Gruber, "Darwin on Man", 1981)

"What is the difference between merely knowing (or remembering, or memorizing) and understanding? […] A thing or idea seems meaningful only when we have several different ways to represent it - different perspectives and different associations […]. Then we can turn it around in our minds, so to speak: however it seems at the moment, we can see it another way and we never come to a full stop. In other words, we can 'think' about it. If there were only one way to represent this thing or idea, we would not call this representation thinking." (Marvin Minsky, "Music, Mind, and Meaning", 1981)

"Wisdom is your perspective on life, your sense of balance, your understanding of how the various parts and principles apply and relate to each other." (Stephen R Covey, "The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People", 1989)

"One of the strongest benefits of the systems thinking perspective is that it can help you learn to ask the right questions. This is an important first step toward understanding a problem. […] Much of the value of systems thinking comes from the different framework that it gives us for looking at problems in new ways." (Virginia Anderson & Lauren Johnson, "Systems Thinking Basics: From Concepts to Causal Loops", 1997)

"The beauty of this [systems thinking] mindset is that its mental models are based on natural laws, principles of interrelationship, and interdependence found in all living systems. They give us a new view of ourselves and our many systems, from the tiniest cell to the entire earth; and as our organizations are included in that great range, they help us define organizational problems as systems problems, so we can respond in more productive ways. The systems thinking mindset is a new orientation to life. In many ways it also operates as a worldview - an overall perspective on, and understanding of, the world." (Stephen G Haines, "The Managers Pocket Guide to Systems Thinking & Learning", 1998)

"There are many modes of thinking about the world around us and our place in it. I like to consider all the angles from which we might gain perspective on our amazing universe and the nature of existence." (John A Wheeler & Kenneth W Ford, "Geons, Black Holes, and Quantum Foam: A Life in Physics", 1998)

"Often a successful problem-solver is one who creates a new context in which to view the problem. This can often be done by directing one's attention away from the distracting details of the difficulty. From a detached perspective, we may examine the situation in a new or different light and, after exploring information and options, choose an appropriate course of action." (John Templeton, "Wisdom From World Religions: Pathways Toward Heaven on Earth", 2002)

"The smartest groups, then, are made up of people with diverse perspectives who are able to stay independent of each other." (James Surowiecki, "The Wisdom of Crowds", 2005)

"Our generational perspective contributes to the mental models we hold about ourselves, the world, and the way things ‘should’ be. These beliefs create blind spots that can become our undoing as we pursue our values and seek to accomplish our goals. Likewise, they can have a powerful effect on our culture.” (Deborah Gilburg, “Empowering Multigenerational Collaboration in the Workplace”, The Systems Thinker Vol. 18 No. 4, 2007)

"A heuristic is a rule applied to an existing solution represented in a perspective that generates a new (and hopefully better) solution or a new set of possible solutions." (Scott E Page, "The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools and Societies", 2008)

"Every problem has a solution; it may sometimes just need another perspective." (Rebecca Mallery et al, "NLP for Rookies", 2009) 

"Also known as worldview, mental model, or mind-set, our perspective of the world is based on the sum total of our knowledge and experiences. It defines us, shaping our thoughts and actions because it represents the way we see ourselves and situations, how we judge the relative importance of things, and how we establish a meaningful relationship with everything around us." (Navi Radjou, Prasad Kaipa, "From Smart to Wise: Acting and Leading with Wisdom", 2013)

"Although good ethical decision-making requires us carefully to take into account as much relevant information as is available to us, we have good reason to think that we commonly fall well short of this standard – either by overlooking relevant facts completely or by underestimating their significance. The mental models we employ can contribute to this problem. As we have explained, mental models frame our experiences in ways that both aid and hinder our perceptions. They enable us to focus selectively on ethically relevant matters. By their very nature, they provide incomplete perspectives, resulting in bounded awareness and bounded ethicality. Insofar as our mental modeling practices result in unwarranted partiality, or even ethical blindness, the desired reflective process is distorted. This distortion is aggravated by the fact that our mental models can have this distorting effect without our consciously realizing it. Thus, although we cannot do without mental models, they leave us all vulnerable to blindness and, insofar as we are unaware of this, self-deception." (Patricia H Werhane et al, "Obstacles to Ethical: Decision-Making Mental Models, Milgram and the Problem of Obedience", 2013)

"These framing perspectives or mental models construe the data of our experiences, and it is the construed data that we call 'facts'. What we often call reality, or the world, is constructed or socially construed in certain ways such that one cannot get at the source of the data except through these construals." (Patricia H Werhane et al, "Obstacles to Ethical: Decision-Making Mental Models, Milgram and the Problem of Obedience", 2013)

"Using random processes in our models allows economists to capture the variability of time series data, but it also poses challenges to model builders. As model builders, we must understand the uncertainty from two different perspectives. Consider first that of the econometrician, standing outside an economic model, who must assess its congruence with reality, inclusive of its random perturbations. An econometrician’s role is to choose among different parameters that together describe a family of possible models to best mimic measured real world time series and to test the implications of these models. I refer to this as outside uncertainty. Second, agents inside our model, be it consumers, entrepreneurs, or policy makers, must also confront uncertainty as they make decisions. I refer to this as inside uncertainty, as it pertains to the decision-makers within the model. What do these agents know? From what information can they learn? With how much confidence do they forecast the future? The modeler’s choice regarding insiders’ perspectives on an uncertain future can have significant consequences for each model’s equilibrium outcomes." (Lars P Hansen, "Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models", [Nobel lecture] 2013)

"A worldview consists of observations of the individual and other people with respect to the self, time and space, the natural and the supernatural and the sacred and profane. […] Beliefs about the world do not reside in the human mind in chaotic disorder; rather they form a latent system. A worldview cannot, however, be viewed as a well-organised network of cognitive models or a static collection of values; instead it should be regarded as the product of a process shaped by historical, cultural and social perspectives and contexts." (Helena Helve, "A longitudinal perspective on worldviews, values and identities", 2016)

Science: On Plausability (Quotes)

"Reasoning from analogy is often most plausible and most deceptive." (Charles Simmons, "A Laconic Manual and Brief Remarker", 1852)

"I may as well say at once that I do not distinguish between inference and deduction. What is called induction appears to me to be either disguised deduction or a mere method of making plausible guesses." (Bertrand Russell, "Principles of Mathematics", 1903)

"However successful a theory or law may have been in the past, directly it fails to interpret new discoveries its work is finished, and it must be discarded or modified. However plausible the hypothesis, it must be ever ready for sacrifice on the altar of observation." (Joseph W Mellor, "A Comprehensive Treatise on Inorganic and Theoretical Chemistry", 1922) 

"Heuristic reasoning is reasoning not regarded as final and strict but as provisional and plausible only, whose purpose is to discover the solution of the present problem. We are often obliged to use heuristic reasoning. We shall attain complete certainty when we shall have obtained the complete solution, but before obtaining certainty we must often be satisfied with a more or less plausible guess. We may need the provisional before we attain the final. We need heuristic reasoning when we construct a strict proof as we need scaffolding when we erect a building." (George PĂłlya, "How to Solve It", 1945)

"The scientist who discovers a theory is usually guided to his discovery by guesses; he cannot name a method by means of which he found the theory and can only say that it appeared plausible to him, that he had the right hunch or that he saw intuitively which assumption would fit the facts." (Hans Reichenbach, "The Rise of Scientific Philosophy", 1951)

"Demonstrative reasoning penetrates the sciences just as far as mathematics does, but it is in itself (as mathematics is in itself) incapable of yielding essentially new knowledge about the world around us. Anything new that we learn about the world involves plausible reasoning, which is the only kind of reasoning for which we care in everyday affairs." (George PĂłlya, "Induction and Analogy in Mathematics", 1954)

"In plausible reasoning the principal thing is to distinguish... a more reasonable guess from a less reasonable guess." (George PĂłlya, "Mathematics and plausible reasoning" Vol. 1, 1954)

"One feature [...] which requires much more justification than is usually given, is the setting up of unplausible null hypotheses. For example, a statistician may set out a test to see whether two drugs have exactly the same effect, or whether a regression line is exactly straight. These hypotheses can scarcely be taken literally." (Cedric A B Smith, "Book review of Norman T. J. Bailey: Statistical Methods in Biology", Applied Statistics 9, 1960)

"[…] the social scientist who lacks a mathematical mind and regards a mathematical formula as a magic recipe, rather than as the formulation of a supposition, does not hold forth much promise. A mathematical formula is never more than a precise statement. It must not be made into a Procrustean bed - and that is what one is driven to by the desire to quantify at any cost. It is utterly implausible that a mathematical formula should make the future known to us, and those who think it can, would once have believed in witchcraft. The chief merit of mathematicization is that it compels us to become conscious of what we are assuming." (Bertrand de Jouvenel, "The Art of Conjecture", 1967)

"Demonstrative reasoning differs from plausible reasoning just as the fact differs from the supposition, just as actual existence differs from the possibility of existence. Demonstrative reasoning is reliable, incontrovertible and final. Plausible reasoning is conditional, arguable and oft-times risky." (Yakov Khurgin, "Did You Say Mathematics?", 1974)

"In all scientific fields, theory is frequently more important than experimental data. Scientists are generally reluctant to accept the existence of a phenomenon when they do not know how to explain it. On the other hand, they will often accept a theory that is especially plausible before there exists any data to support it." (Richard Morris, 1983)

"The degree of confirmation assigned to any given hypothesis is sensitive to properties of the entire belief system [...] simplicity, plausibility, and conservatism are properties that theories have in virtue of their relation to the whole structure of scientific beliefs taken collectively. A measure of conservatism or simplicity would be a metric over global properties of belief systems." (Jerry Fodor, "Modularity of Mind", 1983)

"The point we want to make here is that sensemaking is about plausibility, coherence, and reasonableness. Sensemaking is about accounts that are socially acceptable and credible... It would be nice if these accounts were also accurate. But in an equivocal, postmodern world, infused with the politics of interpretation and conflicting interests and inhabited by people with multiple shifting identities, an obsession with accuracy seems fruitless, and not of much practical help, either." (Karl E Weick, "Sensemaking in Organizations", 1995)

"The systems' basic components are treated as sets of rules. The systems rely on three key mechanisms: parallelism, competition, and recombination. Parallelism permits the system to use individual rules as building blocks, activating sets of rules to describe and act upon the changing situations. Competition allows the system to marshal its rules as the situation demands, providing flexibility and transfer of experience. This is vital in realistic environments, where the agent receives a torrent of information, most of it irrelevant to current decisions. The procedures for adaptation - credit assignment and rule discovery - extract useful, repeatable events from this torrent, incorporating them as new building blocks. Recombination plays a key role in the discovery process, generating plausible new rules from parts of tested rules. It implements the heuristic that building blocks useful in the past will prove useful in new, similar contexts." (John H Holland, "Complex Adaptive Systems", Daedalus Vol. 121 (1), 1992)

"Nonetheless, the basic principles regarding correlations between variables are not that difficult to understand. We must look for patterns that reveal potential relationships and for evidence that variables are actually related. But when we do spot those relationships, we should not jump to conclusions about causality. Instead, we need to weigh the strength of the relationship and the plausibility of our theory, and we must always try to discount the possibility of spuriousness." (Joel Best, "More Damned Lies and Statistics: How numbers confuse public issues", 2004)

"Reality dishes out experiences using probability, not plausibility." (Eliezer S Yudkowsky, "A Technical Explanation of Technical Explanation", 2005)

"Therefore, mathematical ecology does not deal directly with natural objects. Instead, it deals with the mathematical objects and operations we offer as analogs of nature and natural processes. These mathematical models do not contain all information about nature that we may know, but only what we think are the most pertinent for the problem at hand. In mathematical modeling, we have abstracted nature into simpler form so that we have some chance of understanding it. Mathematical ecology helps us understand the logic of our thinking about nature to help us avoid making plausible arguments that may not be true or only true under certain restrictions. It helps us avoid wishful thinking about how we would like nature to be in favor of rigorous thinking about how nature might actually work." (John Pastor, "Mathematical Ecology of Populations and Ecosystems", 2008)

"Don’t just do the calculations. Use common sense to see whether you are answering the correct question, the assumptions are reasonable, and the results are plausible. If a statistical argument doesn’t make sense, think about it carefully - you may discover that the argument is nonsense." (Gary Smith, "Standard Deviations", 2014)

"Facts and values are entangled in science. It's not because scientists are biased, not because they are partial or influenced by other kinds of interests, but because of a commitment to reason, consistency, coherence, plausibility and replicability. These are value commitments." (Alva Noë)

03 April 2022

Mind: On Curiosity (Quotes)

"So blind is the curiosity by which mortals are possessed, that they often conduct their minds along unexplored routes, having no reason to hope for success, but merely being willing to risk the experiment of finding whether the truth they seek lies there." (René Descartes, "Le Discours de la Méthode", 1637)

"Curiosity is only vanity. We usually only want to know something so that we can talk about it." (Blaise Pascal, "Pensées", 1669)

"In reality, all arguments from experience are founded on the similarity which we discover among natural objects, and by which we are induced to expect effects similar to those, which we have found to follow from such objects. And though none but a fool or madman will ever pretend to dispute the authority of experience, or to reject that great guide of human life; it may surely be allowed a philosopher to have so much curiosity at least, as to examine the principle of human nature, which gives this mighty authority to experience, and makes us draw advantage from that similarity, which nature has placed among different objects. From causes, which appear similar, we expect similar effects. This is the sum of all our experimental conclusions." (David Hume, "An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding", 1748)

"Look round the world: contemplate the whole and every part of it: You will find it to be nothing but one great machine, subdivided into an infinite number of lesser machines, which again admit of subdivisions, to a degree beyond what human senses and faculties can trace and explain. All these various machines, and even their most minute parts, are adjusted to each other with an accuracy, which ravishes into admiration all men, who have ever contemplated them. The curious adapting of means to ends, throughout all nature, resembles exactly, though it much exceeds, the productions of human contrivance; of human design, thought, wisdom, and intelligence." (David Hume, "Dialogues Concerning Natural Religion Dialogues Concerning Natural Religion", 1779)

"Curiosity is the aspect of the universe seeking to realise itself, and the fruit of such activity is new reality, stimulating to new research." (Cassius J Keyser, "The Human Worth of Rigorous Thinking: Essays and Addresses", 1916)

"Questions are the engines of intellect, the cerebral machines which convert energy to motion, and curiosity to controlled inquiry." (David H Fischer, "Historians’ Fallacies", 1970)

"Learning emerges from discovery, not directives; reflection, not rules; possibilities, not prescriptions; diversity, not dogma; creativity and curiosity, not conformity and certainty; and meaning, not mandates." (Stephanie P Marshall, "The Power to Transform: Leadership That Brings Learning and Schooling to Life", 2006)

"The complexities of the universe are reflected in the complexities of our brains and in that natural, intimate and solitary activity that we call mind. In this process of matching up and representing, the inexhaustible human curiosity accepts the ancestral challenge of exploring the enormity of what we have yet to know." (Diego Rasskin-Gutman, "Chess Metaphors: Artificial Intelligence and the Human Mind", 2009)

Science: Curiosity (Quotes)

"A strong curiosity has prompted men in all times to study nature; every useful art has some connexion with the science; and the unexhausted beauty and variety of things makes it ever agreeable, new and surprising." (Colin Maclaurin, "An Account of Sir Isaac Newton’s Philosophical Discoveries", 1748)

"In geometry, as in most sciences, it is very rare that an isolated proposition is of immediate utility. But the theories most powerful in practice are formed of propositions which curiosity alone brought to light, and which long remained useless without its being able to divine in what way they should one day cease to be so. In this sense it may be said, that in real science, no theory, no research, is in effect useless." (Voltaire, "A Philosophical Dictionary", 1764) 

"Every stage of science has its train of practical applications and systematic inferences, arising both from the demands of convenience and curiosity, and from the pleasure which, as we have already said, ingenious and active-minded men feel in exercising the process of deduction." (William Whewell, "The Philosophy of the Inductive Sciences Founded Upon Their History", 1840)

"The determination of the average man is not merely a matter of speculative curiosity; it may be of the most important service to the science of man and the social system. It ought necessarily to precede every other inquiry into social physics, since it is, as it were, the basis. The average man, indeed, is in a nation what the centre of gravity is in a body; it is by having that central point in view that we arrive at the apprehension of all the phenomena of equilibrium and motion." (Adolphe Quetelet, "A Treatise on Man and the Development of his Faculties", 1842)

"Knowledge for the sake of knowledge, as the history of science proves, is an aim with an irresistible fascination for mankind, and which needs no defense. The mere fact that science does, to a great extent, gratify our intellectual curiosity, is a sufficient reason for its existence." (John W N Sullivan, "The Limitations of Science", 1915)

"Curiosity is the aspect of the universe seeking to realise itself, and the fruit of such activity is new reality, stimulating to new research." (Cassius J Keyser, "The Human Worth of Rigorous Thinking: Essays and Addresses", 1916)

"Research is formalized curiosity. It is poking and prying with a purpose. It is a seeking that he who wishes may know the cosmic secrets of the world and they that dwell therein." (Zora Neale Hurston, "Dust Tracks on a Road", 1942)

"A great discovery solves a great problem but there is a grain of discovery in the solution of any problem. Your problem may be modest; but if it challenges your curiosity and brings into play your inventive faculties, and if you solve it by your own means, you may experience the tension and enjoy the triumph of discovery." (George Polya, "How to solve it", 1944) 

"Scientific progress on a broad front results from free play of free intellects, working on subjects of their own choice, in the manner dictated by their curiosity for the exploration of the unknown." (Vannevar Bush, "Science: The Endless Frontier", 1945)

"Science cannot be stopped. Men will gather knowledge no matter what the consequences. Science will go on whether we are pessimistic or optimistic, as I am. More interesting discoveries than we can imagine will be made, and I am awaiting them, full of curiosity and enthusiasm." (Linus Pauling, "Chemical Achievement and Hope for the Future", 1947)

"The characteristic feature of our age results from the wedding of science and engineering. It is the working together of disciplined curiosity and purposeful ingenuity to create new materials, new forces, and new opportunities which powerfully affect our manner of living and ways of thinking." (Karl T Compton, "A Scientist Speaks: Excerpts from Addresses by Karl Taylor Compton - During the Years 1930-1949", 1955)

"Questions are the engines of intellect, the cerebral machines which convert energy to motion, and curiosity to controlled inquiry." (David H Fischer, "Historians’ Fallacies", 1970)

"Curiosity, a healthy curiosity, and a desire to learn is what leads the scientist from one problem to another. Once that feeling is lost and there is no excitement or pleasure in learning new facts, the scientist will no longer be able to discover anything new." (Yakov Khurgin, "Did You Say Mathematics?", 1974) 

"Some methods, such as those governing the design of experiments or the statistical treatment of data, can be written down and studied. But many methods are learned only through personal experience and interactions with other scientists. Some are even harder to describe or teach. Many of the intangible influences on scientific discovery - curiosity, intuition, creativity - largely defy rational analysis, yet they are often the tools that scientists bring to their work." (Committee on the Conduct of Science, "On Being a Scientist", 1989)

"Those of us in the business of communicating ideas need to go beyond the fact-check and the statistical smackdown. Facts are valuable things, and so is fact-checking. But if we really want people to understand complex issues, we need to engage their curiosity. If people are curious, they will learn." (Tim Harford, "The Data Detective: Ten easy rules to make sense of statistics", 2020)

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