Showing posts with label experience. Show all posts
Showing posts with label experience. Show all posts

23 December 2022

❄️Systems Thinking: On Experience (Quotes)

"Every change of one of the factors of an equilibrium occasions a rearrangement of the system in such a direction that the factor in question experiences a change in a sense opposite to the original change." (Henri L Le Chatelier, "Recherches Experimentales et Theoriques sur les Equilibres Chimiques" ["Experimental and Theoretical Research on Chemical Equilibria"], Annales des Mines 8, 1888)

"No system would have ever been framed if people had been simply interested in knowing what is true, whatever it may be. What produces systems is the interest in maintaining against all comers that some favourite or inherited idea of ours is sufficient and right. A system may contain an account of many things which, in detail, are true enough; but as a system, covering infinite possibilities that neither our experience nor our logic can prejudge, it must be a work of imagination and a piece of human soliloquy: It may be expressive of human experience, it may be poetical; but how should anyone who really coveted truth suppose that it was true?" (George Santayana, "The Genteel Tradition in American Philosophy", 1911)

"A ‘representation’ of a system is not a knowledge of this system, but is this system itself becoming an object, an element of experience." (Florian Znaniecki, "Cultural reality?", 1919)

"[…] reality is a system, completely ordered and fully intelligible, with which thought in its advance is more and more identifying itself. We may look at the growth of knowledge […] as an attempt by our mind to return to union with things as they are in their ordered wholeness. […] and if we take this view, our notion of truth is marked out for us. Truth is the approximation of thought to reality […] Its measure is the distance thought has travelled […] toward that intelligible system […] The degree of truth of a particular proposition is to be judged in the first instance by its coherence with experience as a whole, ultimately by its coherence with that further whole, all comprehensive and fully articulated, in which thought can come to rest." (Brand Blanshard, "The Nature of Thought" Vol. II, 1939)

"A […] difference between most system-building in the social sciences and systems of thought and classification of the natural sciences is to be seen in their evolution. In the natural sciences both theories and descriptive systems grow by adaptation to the increasing knowledge and experience of the scientists. In the social sciences, systems often issue fully formed from the mind of one man. Then they may be much discussed if they attract attention, but progressive adaptive modification as a result of the concerted efforts of great numbers of men is rare." (Lawrence J Henderson, "The Study of Man", 1941)

"The most fundamental concept in cybernetics is that of ‘difference’, either that two things are recognisably different or that one thing has changed with time. Its range of application need not be described now, for the subsequent chapters will illustrate the range abundantly. All the changes that may occur with time are naturally included, for when plants grow and planets age and machines move some change from one state to another is implicit. So our first task will be to develop this concept of 'change', not only making it more precise but making it richer, converting it to a form that experience has shown to be necessary if significant developments are to be made." (W Ross Ashby, "An Introduction to Cybernetics", 1956)

"Knowing reality means constructing systems of transformations that correspond, more or less adequately, to reality. They are more or less isomorphic to transformations of reality. The transformational structures of which knowledge consists are not copies of the transformations in reality; they are simply possible isomorphic models among which experience can enable us to choose. Knowledge, then, is a system of transformations that become progressively adequate." (Jean Piaget, "Genetic Epistemology", 1968)

"Catastrophes are often stimulated by the failure to feel the emergence of a domain, and so what cannot be felt in the imagination is experienced as embodied sensation in the catastrophe." (William I Thompson, "Gaia, a Way of Knowing: Political Implications of the New Biology", 1987)

"Networks constitute the new social morphology of our societies, and the diffusion of networking logic substantially modifies the operation and outcomes in processes of production, experience, power, and culture. While the networking form of social organization has existed in other times and spaces, the new information technology paradigm provides the material basis for its pervasive expansion throughout the entire social structure." (Manuel Castells, "The Rise of the Network Society", 1996)

"Something of the previous state, however, survives every change. This is called in the language of cybernetics (which took it form the language of machines) feedback, the advantages of learning from experience and of having developed reflexes." (Guy Davenport, "The Geography of the Imagination: Forty Essays", 1997)

"Randomness is the very stuff of life, looming large in our everyday experience. […] The fascination of randomness is that it is pervasive, providing the surprising coincidences, bizarre luck, and unexpected twists that color our perception of everyday events." (Edward Beltrami, "What is Random?: Chaos and Order in Mathematics and Life", 1999)

"Faced with the overwhelming complexity of the real world, time pressure, and limited cognitive capabilities, we are forced to fall back on rote procedures, habits, rules of thumb, and simple mental models to make decisions. Though we sometimes strive to make the best decisions we can, bounded rationality means we often systematically fall short, limiting our ability to learn from experience." (John D Sterman, "Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world", 2000)

"The self-reinforcing feedback between expectations and perceptions has been repeatedly demonstrated […]. Sometimes the positive feedback assists learning by sharpening our ability to perceive features of the environment, as when an experienced naturalist identifies a bird in a distant bush where the novice sees only a tangled thicket. Often, however, the mutual feedback of expectations and perception blinds us to the anomalies that might challenge our mental models and lead to deep insight." (John D Sterman, "Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world", 2000)

"Ecological rationality uses reason – rational reconstruction – to examine the behavior of individuals based on their experience and folk knowledge, who are ‘naïve’ in their ability to apply constructivist tools to the decisions they make; to understand the emergent order in human cultures; to discover the possible intelligence embodied in the rules, norms and institutions of our cultural and biological heritage that are created from human interactions but not by deliberate human design. People follow rules without being able to articulate them, but they can be discovered." (Vernon L Smith, "Constructivist and ecological rationality in economics", 2002)

"When we look at the world around us, we find that we are not thrown into chaos and randomness but are part of a great order, a grand symphony of life. Every molecule in our body was once a part of previous bodies-living or nonliving-and will be a part of future bodies. In this sense, our body will not die but will live on, again and again, because life lives on. We share not only life's molecules but also its basic principles of organization with the rest of the living world. Arid since our mind, too, is embodied, our concepts and metaphors are embedded in the web of life together with our bodies and brains. We belong to the universe, we are at home in it, and this experience of belonging can make our lives profoundly meaningful." (Fritjof Capra, "The Hidden Connections", 2002)

"To remedy chaotic situations requires a chaotic approach, one that is non-linear, constantly morphing, and continually sharpening its competitive edge with recurring feedback loops that build upon past experiences and lessons learned. Improvement cannot be sustained without reflection. Chaos arises from myriad sources that stem from two origins: internal chaos rising within you, and external chaos being imposed upon you by the environment. The result of this push/pull effect is the disequilibrium [...]." (Jeff Boss, "Navigating Chaos: How to Find Certainty in Uncertain Situations", 2015)




🪂Mind: On Experience (Quotes)

"Reasoning draws a conclusion and makes us grant the conclusion, but does not make the conclusion certain, nor does it remove doubt so that the mind may rest on the intuition of truth, unless the mind discovers it by the path of experience." (Roger Bacon, "Opus Majus", cca. 1267)

"[…] it is from long experience chiefly that we are to expect the most certain rules of practice, yet it is withal to be remembered, that observations, and to put us upon the most probable means of improving any art, is to get the best insight we can into the nature and properties of those things which we are desirous to cultivate and improve." (Stephen Hales, "Vegetable Staticks", 1727)

"Men always fool themselves when they give up experience for systems born of the imagination. Man is the work of nature, he exists in nature, he is subject to its laws, he can not break free, he can not leave even in thought; it is in vain that his spirit wants to soar beyond the bounds of the visible world, he is always forced to return." (Paul-Henri T d’ Holbach, "Système de la Nature", 1770)

"It falls into this difficulty without any fault of its own. It begins with principles, which cannot be dispensed with in the field of experience, and the truth and sufficiency of which are, at the same time, insured by experience. With these principles it rises, in obedience to the laws of its own nature, to ever higher and more remote conditions. But it quickly discovers that, in this way, its labours must remain ever incomplete, because new questions never cease to present themselves; and thus it finds itself compelled to have recourse to principles which transcend the region of experience, while they are regarded by common sense without distrust. It thus falls into confusion and contradictions, from which it conjectures the presence of latent errors, which, however, it is unable to discover, because the principles it employs, transcending the limits of experience, cannot be tested by that criterion. The arena of these endless contests is called Metaphysic." (Immanuel Kant, "The Critique of Pure Reason", 1781)

"In order to supply the defects of experience, we will have recourse to the probable conjectures of analogy, conclusions which we will bequeath to our posterity to be ascertained by new observations, which, if we augur rightly, will serve to establish our theory and to carry it gradually nearer to absolute certainty." (Johann H Lambert, "The System of the World", 1800)

"We construct concepts when we represent them in intuition a priori, without experience, or when we represent in intuition  the object which corresponds to our concept of it. - The mathematician can never apply his reason to mere concepts, nor the philosopher to the construction of concepts. - In mathematics  the reason is employed in concreto, however, the intuition is not  empirical, but the object of contemplation is something a priori." (Immanuel Kant, "Logic", 1800)

"Induction, analogy, hypotheses founded upon facts and rectified continually by new observations, a happy tact given by nature and strengthened by numerous comparisons of its indications with experience, such are the principal means for arriving at truth." (Pierre-Simon Laplace, "A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities", 1814)

"Theories are always very thin and unsubstantial; experience only is tangible." (Hosea Ballou, "Universalist Expositor", 1831)

"It is frequently analogy which guides the experienced to what are called good guesses." (Francis W Newman, "Lectures on Logic", 1838)

"A human being, what is a human being? Everything and nothing. Through the power of thought it can mirror everything it experiences. Through memory and knowledge it becomes a microcosm, carrying the world within itself. A mirror of things, a mirror of facts. Each human being becomes a little universe within the universe!" (Guy de Maupassant, [in "The Journal of a Madman"] 1851)

"By reducing imagination to the power of forming images, and by insisting that no image can be formed except out of the elements furnished by experience, I do not mean to confound imagination with memory; indeed, the frequent occurrence of great strength of memory with comparative feebleness of imagination, would suffice to warn us against such a conclusion." (George H Lewes, "The Principles of Success in Literature", 1865)

"To imagine - to form an image - we must have the numerous relations of things present to the mind, and see the objects in their actual order. In this we are of course greatly aided by the mass of organised experience, which allows us rapidly to estimate the relations of gravity or affinity just as we remember that fire burns and that heated bodies expand. But be the aid great or small, and the result victorious or disastrous, the imaginative process is always the same." (George H Lewes, "The Principles of Success in Literature", 1865)

"All experience attests the strength of the tendency to mistake mental abstractions, even negative ones, for substantive realities; and the Permanent Possibilities of sensation which experience guarantees arc so extremely unlike in many of their properties to actual sensations, that since we are capable of imagining something which transcends sensations, there is a great natural probability that we should suppose these to be it." (Hippolyte Taine, "On intelligence", 1871)

"Every word instantly becomes a concept precisely insofar as it is not supposed to serve as a reminder of the unique and entirely individual original experience to which it owes its origin; but rather, a word becomes a concept insofar as it simultaneously has to fit countless more or less similar cases - which means, purely and simply, cases which are never equal and thus altogether unequal. Every concept arises from the equation of unequal things. Just as it is certain that one leaf is never totally the same as another, so it is certain that the concept 'leaf' is formed by arbitrarily discarding these individual differences and by forgetting the distinguishing aspects." (Friedrich Nietzsche, "On Truth and Lie in an Extra-Moral Sense", 1873)

"Ideas are substitutions which require a secondary process when what is symbolized by them is translated into the images and experiences it replaces; and this secondary process is frequently not performed at all, generally only performed to a very small extent. Let anyone closely examine what has passed in his mind when he has constructed a chain of reasoning, and he will be surprised at the fewness and faintness of the images which have accompanied the ideas." (George H Lewes "Problems of Life and Mind", 1873)

"The man who is guided by concepts and abstractions only succeeds by such means in warding off misfortune, without ever gaining any happiness for himself from these abstractions. And while he aims for the greatest possible freedom from pain, the intuitive man, standing in the midst of a culture, already reaps from his intuition a harvest of continually inflowing illumination, cheer, and redemption - in addition to obtaining a defense against misfortune. To be sure, he suffers more intensely, when he suffers; he even suffers more frequently, since he does not understand how to learn from experience and keeps falling over and over again into the same ditch." (Friedrich Nietzsche," On Truth and Lie in an Extra-Moral Sense", 1873)

"Human existence is girt round with mystery: the narrow region of our experience is a small island in the midst of a boundless sea. To add to the mystery, the domain of our earthly existence is not only an island of infinite space, but also in infinite time. The past and the future are alike shrouded from us: we neither know the origin of anything which is, nor its final destination." (John S Mill, "Nature, The Utility of Religion and Theism", 1874)

"Summing up, then, it would seem as if the mind of the great discoverer must combine contradictory attributes. He must be fertile in theories and hypotheses, and yet full of facts and precise results of experience. He must entertain the feeblest analogies, and the merest guesses at truth, and yet he must hold them as worthless till they are verified in experiment. When there are any grounds of probability he must hold tenaciously to an old opinion, and yet he must be prepared at any moment to relinquish it when a clearly contradictory fact is encountered." (William S Jevons, "The Principles of Science: A Treatise on Logic and Scientific Method", 1874)

"Incidentally, naive intuition, which is in large part an inherited talent, emerges unconsciously from the in-depth study of this or that field of science. The word ‘Anschauung’ has not perhaps been suitably chosen. I would like to include here the motoric sensation with which an engineer assesses the distribution of forces in something he is designing, and even that vague feeling possessed by the experienced number cruncher about the convergence of infinite processes with which he is confronted. I am saying that, in its fields of application, mathematical intuition understood in this way rushes ahead of logical thinking and in each moment has a wider scope than the latter " (Felix Klein, "Über Arithmetisierung der Mathematik", Zeitschrift für mathematischen und naturwissen-schaftlichen Unterricht 27, 1896)

"The mind of man, learning consciously and unconsciously lessons of experience, gradually constructs a mental image of its surroundings - as the mariner draws a chart of strange coasts to guide him in future voyages, and to enable those that follow after him to sail the same seas with ease and safety." (William C Dampier, "The Recent Development of Physical Science", 1904)

"Reduced to their most pregnant difference, empiricism means the habit of explaining wholes by parts, and rationalism means the habit of explaining parts by wholes. Rationalism thus preserves affinities with monism, since wholeness goes with union, while empiricism inclines to pluralistic views. No philosophy can ever be anything but a summary sketch, a picture of the world in abridgment, a foreshortened bird's-eye view of the perspective of events. And the first thing to notice is this, that the only material we have at our disposal for making a picture of the whole world is supplied by the various portions of that world of which we have already had experience. We can invent no new forms of conception, applicable to the whole exclusively, and not suggested originally by the parts." (William James, "A Pluralistic Universe", 1908)

"In the presence of certain objects of thought or of certain affirmations the child, in virtue of previous experiences, adopts a certain way of reacting and thinking which is always the same, and which might be called a schema of reasoning. Such schemas are the functional equivalents of general propositions, but since the child is not conscious of these schemas before discussion and a desire for proof have laid them bare and at the same time changed their character, they cannot be said to constitute implicit general propositions. They simply constitute certain unconscious tendencies which live their own life but are submitted to no general systematization and consequently lead to no logical exactitude. To put it in another way, they form a logic of action but not yet a logic of thought." (Jean Piaget, "Judgement and Reasoning in the Child", 1928)

"Abstraction is the detection of a common quality in the characteristics of a number of diverse observations […] A hypothesis serves the same purpose, but in a different way. It relates apparently diverse experiences, not by directly detecting a common quality in the experiences themselves, but by inventing a fictitious substance or process or idea, in terms of which the experience can be expressed. A hypothesis, in brief, correlates observations by adding something to them, while abstraction achieves the same end by subtracting something." (Herbert Dingle, Science and Human Experience, 1931)

"'Schema' refers to an active organisation of past reactions, or of past experiences, which must always be supposed to be operating in any well-adapted organic response. That is, whenever there is any order or regularity of behavior, a particular response is possible only because it is related to other similar responses which have been serially organised, yet which operate, not simply as individual members coming one after another, but as a unitary mass. Determination by schemata is the most fundamental of all the ways in which we can be influenced by reactions and experiences which occurred some time in the past. All incoming impulses of a certain kind, or mode, go together to build up an active, organised setting: visual, auditory, various types of cutaneous impulses and the like, at a relatively low level; all the experiences connected by a common interest: in sport, in literature, history, art, science, philosophy, and so on, on a higher level." (Frederic C Bartlett, "Remembering: A study in experimental and social psychology", 1932)

"Concepts can only acquire content when they are connected, however indirectly, with sensible experience. But no logical investigation can reveal this connection; it can only be experienced. […] this connection […] determines the cognitive value of systems of concepts." (Albert Einstein, "The Problem of Space, Ether, and the Field in Physics", Mein Weltbild, 1934)

"[…] reality is a system, completely ordered and fully intelligible, with which thought in its advance is more and more identifying itself. We may look at the growth of knowledge […] as an attempt by our mind to return to union with things as they are in their ordered wholeness. […] and if we take this view, our notion of truth is marked out for us. Truth is the approximation of thought to reality […] Its measure is the distance thought has travelled […] toward that intelligible system […] The degree of truth of a particular proposition is to be judged in the first instance by its coherence with experience as a whole, ultimately by its coherence with that further whole, all comprehensive and fully articulated, in which thought can come to rest." (Brand Blanshard, "The Nature of Thought" Vol. II, 1939)

"Thus we do not try to prove the existence of the external world – we discover it, because the fundamental power of words or other symbols to represent events [...] permits us to put forward hypotheses and test their truth by reference to experience. [..] A particular type of symbolism may always fail in a particular case, as Euclidean geometry apparently fails to represent stellar space; but if all types of symbolism always failed, we should be unable to recognise any objects or exist at all." (Kenneth Craik, "The Nature of Explanation", 1943)

"A model, like a novel, may resonate with nature, but it is not a ‘real’ thing. Like a novel, a model may be convincing - it may ‘ring true’ if it is consistent with our experience of the natural world. But just as we may wonder how much the characters in a novel are drawn from real life and how much is artifice, we might ask the same of a model: How much is based on observation and measurement of accessible phenomena, how much is convenience? Fundamentally, the reason for modeling is a lack of full access, either in time or space, to the phenomena of interest." (Kenneth Belitz, Science, Vol. 263, 1944)

"The complete use of pure reason brings us finally from physical to metaphysical knowledge. But the concepts of metaphysical knowledge do not in themselves fully satisfy the demand of our integral being. They are indeed entirely satisfactory to the pure reason itself, because they are the very stuff of its own existence. But our nature sees things through two eyes always, for it views them doubly as idea and as fact and therefore every concept is incomplete for us and to a part of our nature almost unreal until it becomes an experience." (Sri Aurobindo, "The Life Divine", 1944)

"Man tries to make for himself in the fashion that suits him best a simplified and intelligible picture of the world; he then tries to some extent to substitute this cosmos of his for the world of experience, and thus to overcome it. This is what the painter, the poet, the speculative philosopher, and the natural scientist do, each in his own way." (Albert Einstein, "The World as I See It", 1949)

"Every bit of knowledge we gain and every conclusion we draw about the universe or about any part or feature of it depends finally upon some observation or measurement. Mankind has had again and again the humiliating experience of trusting to intuitive, apparently logical conclusions without observations, and has seen Nature sail by in her radiant chariot of gold in an entirely different direction." (Oliver J Lee, "Measuring Our Universe: From the Inner Atom to Outer Space", 1950)

"In speaking here of ‘comprehensibility’, the expression is used in its most modest sense. It implies: the production being produced by the creation of general concepts, relations between these concepts and sense experience. It is in this sense that the world of our sense experiences is comprehensible. The fact that it is comprehensible is a miracle." (Albert Einstein, "Out of My Later Years", 1950)

"As our mental eye penetrates into smaller and smaller distances and shorter and shorter times, we find nature behaving so entirely differently from what we observe in visible and palpable bodies of our surroundings that no model shaped after our large-scale experiences can ever be ‘true’. A complete satisfactory model of this type is not only practically inaccessible, but not even thinkable. Or, to be precise, we can, of course, think of it, but however we think it, it is wrong; not perhaps quite as meaningless as a ‘triangular circle’, but more so than a ‘winged lion’." (Erwin Schrödinger, "Science and Humanism", 1952)

"As an empiricist I continue to think of the conceptual scheme of science as a tool, ultimately, for predicting future experience in the light of past experience. Physical objects are conceptually imported into the situation as convenient intermediaries - not by definition in terms of experience, but simply as irreducible posits comparable, epistemologically, to the gods of Homer." (Willard v O Quine, "From a Logical Point of View", 1953)

"Our acceptance of an ontology is, I think, similar in principle to our acceptance of a scientific theory, say a system of physics; we adopt, at least insofar as we are reasonable, the simplest conceptual scheme into which the disordered fragments of raw experience can be fitted and arranged." (Willard van Orman Quine, "From a Logical Point of View", 1953)

"[a pictorial representation] is not a faithful record of a visual experience, but the faithful construction of a relational model […] Such a model can be constructed to any required degree of accuracy . What is decisive here is clearly the word 'required'. The form of a representation cannot be divorced from its purpose and the requirements of the society in which the given visual language gains currency." (Ernst H Gombrich," Art and illusion", 1960)

"Mental pictures offer us an opportunity to practice new traits and attitudes, which otherwise we could not do. This is possible because again - your nervous system cannot tell the difference between an actual experience and one that is vividly imagined." (Maxwell Maltz, "Psycho-Cybernetics", 1960)

"What a man sees depends both upon what he looks at and also upon what his previous visual-conceptual experience has taught him to see." (Thomas Kuhn, "The Structure of Scientific Revolutions", 1962)

"People may come along and argue philosophically that they like one better than another; but we have learned from much experience that all philosophical intuitions about what nature is going to do fail." (Richard Feynman, "The Character of Physical Law", 1965)

"The most pervasive paradox of the human condition which we see is that the processes which allow us to survive, grow, change, and experience joy are the same processes which allow us to maintain an impoverished model of the world - our ability to manipulate symbols, that is, to create models. So the processes which allow us to accomplish the most extraordinary and unique human activities are the same processes which block our further growth if we commit the error of mistaking the model of the world for reality." (Richard Bandler & John Grinder, "The Structure of Magic", 1975)

"Imagining is not perceiving, but images are indeed derivatives of perceptual activity. In particular, they are the anticipatory phases of that activity, schemata that the perceiver has detached from the perceptual cycle for other purposes. […] The experience of having an image is just the inner aspect of a readiness to perceive the imagined object. (Ulrich Neisser, "Cognition and Reality" 1976)

"A mental image occurs when a representation of the type created during the initial phases of perception is present but the stimulus is not actually being perceived; such representations preserve the perceptible properties of the stimulus and ultimately give rise to the subjective experience of perception." (Stephen Kosslyn, "Image and Mind", 1980)

"These organizational processes result in our perceptions being structured into units corresponding to objects and properties of objects. It is these larger units that may be stored and later assembled into images that are experienced as quasi-pictorial, spatial entities resembling those evoked during perception itself [...] It is erroneous to equate image representations with mental photographs, since this would overlook the fact that images are composed from highly processed perceptual encodings." (Stephen Kosslyn, "Image and Mind", 1980)

"Time goes forward because energy itself is always moving from an available to an unavailable state. Our consciousness is continually recording the entropy change in the world around us. [...] we experience the passage of time by the succession of one event after another. And every time an event occurs anywhere in this world energy is expended and the overall entropy is increased. To say the world is running out of time then, to say the world is running out of usable energy. In the words of Sir Arthur Eddington, 'Entropy is time's arrow'." (Jeremy Rifkin, "Entropy", 1980)

"Analogies, metaphors, and emblems are the threads by which the mind holds on to the world even when, absentmindedly, it has lost direct contact with it, and they guarantee the unity of human experience. Moreover, in the thinking process itself they serve as models to give us our bearings lest we stagger blindly among experiences that our bodily senses with their relative certainty of knowledge cannot guide us through." (Hannah Arendt, "The Life of the Mind", 1981)

"That is to say, intuition is not a direct perception of something existing externally and eternally. It is the effect in the mind of certain experiences of activity and manipulation of concrete objects (at a later stage, of marks on paper or even mental images). As a result of this experience, there is something (a trace, an effect) in the pupil's mind which is his representation of the integers. But his representation is equivalent to mine, in the sense that we both get die same answer to any question you ask - or if we get different answers, we can compare notes and figure out what's right. We do this, not because we have been taught a set of algebraic rules, but because our mental pictures match each other." (Philip J Davis & Reuben Hersh, "The Mathematical Experience", 1981)

"The thinking person goes over the same ground many times. He looks at it from varying points of view - his own, his arch-enemy’s, others’. He diagrams it, verbalizes it, formulates equations, constructs visual images of the whole problem, or of troublesome parts, or of what is clearly known. But he does not keep a detailed record of all this mental work, indeed could not. […] Deep understanding of a domain of knowledge requires knowing it in various ways. This multiplicity of perspectives grows slowly through hard work and sets the state for the re-cognition we experience as a new insight." (Howard E Gruber, "Darwin on Man", 1981)

"[...] without imagination, heightened awareness, moral sense, and some reference to the general culture, the engineering experience becomes less meaningful, less fulfilling than it should be." (Samuel C Florman, "The Civilized Engineer", 1985)

"Metaphor [is] a pervasive mode of understanding by which we project patterns from one domain of experience in order to structure another domain of a different kind. So conceived metaphor is not merely a linguistic mode of expression; rather, it is one of the chief cognitive structures by which we are able to have coherent, ordered experiences that we can reason about and make sense of. Through metaphor, we make use of patterns that obtain in our physical experience to organise our more abstract understanding. " (Mark Johnson, "The Body in the Mind", 1987)

"When we focus consciously on an object - and create a mental image for eexample- it's not because the brain pattern is a copy or neural representation of the perceived object, but because the brain experiences a special kind of interaction with that object, preparing the brain to deal with it." (Roger W Sperry, "New Mindset on Consciousness", Sunrise magazine, 1987/1988)

"Each of us has many, many maps in our head, which can be divided into two main categories: maps of the way things are, or realities, and maps of the way things should be, or values. We interpret everything we experience through these mental maps. We seldom question their accuracy; we're usually even unaware that we have them. We simply assume that the way we see things is the way they really are or the way they should be."  (Stephen Covey, "The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People", 1989)

"Modeling underlies our ability to think and imagine, to use signs and language, to communicate, to generalize from experience, to deal with the unexpected, and to make sense out of the raw bombardment of our sensations. It allows us to see patterns, to appreciate, predict, and manipulate processes and things, and to express meaning and purpose. In short, it is one of the most essential activities of the human mind. It is the foundation of what we call intelligent behavior and is a large part of what makes us human. We are, in a word, modelers: creatures that build and use models routinely, habitually – sometimes even compulsively – to face, understand, and interact with reality."  (Jeff Rothenberg, "The Nature of Modeling. In: Artificial Intelligence, Simulation, and Modeling", 1989)

"The more aware we are of our basic paradigms, maps, or assumptions, and the extent to which we have been influenced by our experience, the more we can take responsibility for those paradigms, examine them, test them against reality, listen to others and be open to their perceptions, thereby getting a larger picture and a far more objective view." (Stephen Covey, "The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People", 1989)

"Many people would accept that we do not really have knowledge of the world; we have knowledge only of our representations of the world. Yet we seem condemned by our consitution to treat these representations as if they were the world, for our everyday experience feels as if it were of a given and immediate world." (Francisco Varela, "The Embodied Mind", 1991)

"The most persuasive positive argument for mental images as objects is [that] whenever one thinks one is seeing something there must be something one is seeing. It might be an object directly, or it might be a mental picture. [This] point is so plausible that it is deniable only at the peril of becoming arbitrary. One should concede that the question whether mental images are entities of some sort is not resolvable by logical or linguistic analysis, and believe what makes sense of experience." (Eva T H Brann, "The World of Imagination", 1991)

"A world view is a system of co-ordinates or a frame of reference in which everything presented to us by our diverse experiences can be placed. It is a symbolic system of representation that allows us to integrate everything we know about the world and ourselves into a global picture, one that illuminates reality as it is presented to us within a certain culture. […] A world view is a coherent collection of concepts and theorems that must allow us to construct a global image of the world, and in this way to understand as many elements of our experience as possible." (Diederick Aerts et al, "World views: From Fragmentation to Integration", 1994)

"A mental model is not normally based on formal definitions but rather on concrete properties that have been drawn from life experience. Mental models are typically analogs, and they comprise specific contents, but this does not necessarily restrict their power to deal with abstract concepts, as we will see. The important thing about mental models, especially in the context of mathematics, is the relations they represent. […]  The essence of understanding a concept is to have a mental representation or mental model that faithfully reflects the structure of that concept. (Lyn D. English & Graeme S. Halford, "Mathematics Education: Models and Processes", 1995)

"We all depend on models to interpret our everyday experiences. We interpret what we see in terms of mental models constructed on past experience and education. They are constructs that we use to understand the pattern of our experiences." (David Bartholomew, "What is Statistics?", 1995)

"When we visually perceive the world, we do not just process information; we have a subjective experience of color, shape, and depth. We have experiences associated with other senses (think of auditory experiences of music, or the ineffable nature of smell experiences), with bodily sensations (e.g., pains, tickles, and orgasms), with mental imagery (e.g., the colored shapes that appear when one tubs one's eyes), with emotion (the sparkle of happiness, the intensity of anger, the weight of despair), and with the stream of conscious thought." (David Chalmers, "The Puzzle of Conscious Experience", Scientific American, 1995)

"If we are to have meaningful, connected experiences; ones that we can comprehend and reason about; we must be able to discern patterns to our actions, perceptions, and conceptions. Underlying our vast network of interrelated literal meanings (all of those words about objects and actions) are those imaginative structures of understanding such as schema and metaphor, such as the mental imagery that allows us to extrapolate a path, or zoom in on one part of the whole, or zoom out until the trees merge into a forest." (William H Calvin, "The Cerebral Code", 1996)

"The power of images consists largely in the fact that they integrate different types of knowledge and experience." (David Gooding, "Creative Rationality", 1996)

"Faced with the overwhelming complexity of the real world, time pressure, and limited cognitive capabilities, we are forced to fall back on rote procedures, habits, rules of thumb, and simple mental models to make decisions. Though we sometimes strive to make the best decisions we can, bounded rationality means we often systematically fall short, limiting our ability to learn from experience." (John D Sterman, "Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world", 2000)

"In the language of mental models, such past experience provided the default assumptions necessary to fill the gaps in the emerging and necessarily incomplete framework of a relativistic theory of gravitation. It was precisely the nature of these default assumptions that allowed them to be discarded again in the light of novel information - provided, for instance, by the further elaboration of the mathematical formalism - without, however, having to abandon the underlying mental models which could thus continue to function as heuristic orientations." (Jürgen Renn, "Before the Riemann Tensor: The Emergence of Einstein’s Double Strategy", [in "The Universe of General Relativity"] 2000)


"When we acquire a language we don’t simply learn how to use the correct words, grammar and conventions for speaking appropriately in context, we also acquire a ‘world view’: an implicit set of assumptions and presuppositions regarding how to understand the world, who and what we are within it, and everything else that is entailed in categorising our experience." (Michael Forrester," Psychology of the Image", 2000)

"A mental model is a representation of some domain or situation that supports understanding, reasoning, and prediction. Mental models permit reasoning about situations not directly experienced. They allow people to mentally simulate the behavior of a system. Many mental models are based on generalizations and analogies from experience." (D Gentner, "Psychology of Mental Models" [in "International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences"], 2001)

"In the definition of meaning, it is assumed that both the source and receiver have previously coded (and stored) signals of the same or similar referents, such that the messages may have meaning and relate to behaviour. That is, the used symbols must have the same signification for both sender and receiver. If not, the receiver will create a different mental picture than intended by the transmitter. Meaning is generated by individuals in a process of social interaction with a more or less common environment. It is a relation subsisting within a field of experience and appears as an emergent property of a symbolic representation when used in culturally accepted interaction. The relation between the symbolic representation and its meaning is random. Of this, however, the mathematical theory has nothing to say. If human links in the chain of communication are missing, of course no questions of meaning will arise." (Lars Skyttner, "General Systems Theory: Ideas and Applications", 2001)

"As the least conscious layer of the user experience, the conceptual model has the paradoxical quality of also having the most impact on usability. If an appropriate conceptual model is faithfully represented throughout the interface, after users recognize and internalize the model, they will have a fundamental understanding of what the application does and how to operate it." (Bob Baxley, "Making the Web Work: Designing Effective Web Applications", 2002)

"Ecological rationality uses reason – rational reconstruction – to examine the behavior of individuals based on their experience and folk knowledge, who are ‘naïve’ in their ability to apply constructivist tools to the decisions they make; to understand the emergent order in human cultures; to discover the possible intelligence embodied in the rules, norms and institutions of our cultural and biological heritage that are created from human interactions but not by deliberate human design. People follow rules without being able to articulate them, but they can be discovered." (Vernon L Smith, "Constructivist and ecological rationality in economics", 2002)

"A mental model is conceived […] as a knowledge structure possessing slots that can be filled not only with empirically gained information but also with ‘default assumptions’ resulting from prior experience. These default assumptions can be substituted by updated information so that inferences based on the model can be corrected without abandoning the model as a whole. Information is assimilated to the slots of a mental model in the form of ‘frames’ which are understood here as ‘chunks’ of knowledge with a well-defined meaning anchored in a given body of shared knowledge." (Jürgen Renn, "Before the Riemann Tensor: The Emergence of Einstein’s Double Strategy", "The Universe of General Relativity" Ed. by A.J. Kox & Jean Eisenstaedt, 2005)

"Patterns experienced again and again become intuitions. […] Intuitive judgments are made by our use of imagery; intuition is the result of mental model building. […] The mental model used and the form of the intuition is dependent upon the question being answered." (Roger Frantz, "Two Minds", 2005)

"We must begin by distinguishing between visual mental imagery and visual perception: Visual perception occurs while a stimulus is being viewed, and includes functions such as visual recognition (i. e., registering that a stimulus is familiar) and identification (i. e., recalling the name, context, or other information associated with the object). Two types of mechanisms are used in visual perception: ‘bottom-up’ mechanisms are driven by the input from the eyes; in contrast, ‘top-down’ mechanisms make use of stored information (such as knowledge, belief, expectations, and goals). Visual mental imagery is a set of representations that gives rise to the experience of viewing a stimulus in the absence of appropriate sensory input. In this case, information in memory underlies the internal events that produce the experience. Unlike afterimages, mental images are relatively prolonged." (Stephen M Kosslyn, "Mental images and the brain", Cognitive Neuropsychology 22, 2005)

"When a particular image appears in the mind's eye often enough it begins to connect apparently unrelated ideas leading to models and theories. […] Patterns experienced again and again become intuitions. […] Intuitive judgments are made by our use of imagery; intuition is the result of mental model building. […] The mental model used and the form of the intuition is dependent upon the question being answered." (Roger Frantz, "Two Minds", 2005)

"Often our mental models serve a very useful and practical purpose by helping us to make very quick sense of our experiences and interactions. However, the danger for us is that our mental models do not always reflect the truth, i.e. the way things really are. Often they reflect what we believe to be true, and sometimes we get it wrong." (John Middleton, "Upgrade Your Brain: 52 brilliant ideas for everyday genius", 2006)

"Our inner working models, therefore, function as interpretation schemes, on the basis of which we organize our experiences. But, such schemes also distort reality in the direction of our pattern of expectations. In short: such working models organize and screen our experiences. This means that such an inner working model organizes and colours our perception of things in such a way that it can be extremely stimulating but can also sometimes slow us down considerably." (M H M de Wolf, "Freud and Mahler", 2007)

"A worldview must be coherent, logical and adequate. Coherence means that the fundamental ideas constituting the worldview must be seen as proceeding from a single, unifying, overarching concept. A logical worldview means simply that the various ideas constituting it should not be contradictory. Adequate means that it is capable of explaining, logically and coherently, every element of contemporary experience." (M. G. Jackson, "Transformative Learning for a New Worldview: Learning to Think Differently", 2008)

"Actually, around 80% of the data we use to make decisions is already in our heads before we engage with a situation. Our power to perceive is governed and limited by cognitive filters, sometimes termed our ‘mental model’. Mental models are formed as a result of past experience, knowledge and attitudes. They are deeply ingrained, often subconscious, structures that limit what we perceive and also colour our interpretation of supposed facts." (Robina Chatham & Brian Sutton, "Changing the IT Leader’s Mindset", 2010)

"We all have mental models: the lens through which we see the world that drive our responses to everything we experience. Being aware of your mental models is key to being objective." (Elizabeth Thornton, "Learn to Be an Objective Leader without Losing Everything", 2015)

"When a culture is founded on the principle of immediacy of experience, there is no need for numeracy. It is impossible to consume more than one thing at a time, so differentiating between 'a small amount', 'a larger amount' and 'many' is enough for survival." (The Open University, "Understanding the environment: learning and communication", 2016)

05 May 2021

🦋Science: On Experience (Quotes)

 "[…] it is from long experience chiefly that we are to expect the most certain rules of practice, yet it is withal to be remembered, that observations, and to put us upon the most probable means of improving any art, is to get the best insight we can into the nature and properties of those things which we are desirous to cultivate and improve." (Stephen Hales, "Vegetable Staticks", 1727)

"In order to supply the defects of experience, we will have recourse to the probable conjectures of analogy, conclusions which we will bequeath to our posterity to be ascertained by new observations, which, if we augur rightly, will serve to establish our theory and to carry it gradually nearer to absolute certainty." (Johann H Lambert, "The System of the World", 1800)

"Induction, analogy, hypotheses founded upon facts and rectified continually by new observations, a happy tact given by nature and strengthened by numerous comparisons of its indications with experience, such are the principal means for arriving at truth." (Pierre-Simon Laplace, "A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities", 1814)

"Observation is so wide awake, and facts are being so rapidly added to the sum of human experience, that it appears as if the theorizer would always be in arrears, and were doomed forever to arrive at imperfect conclusion; but the power to perceive a law is equally rare in all ages of the world, and depends but little on the number of facts observed." (Henry D Thoreau, "A Week on the Concord and Merrimack Rivers", 1862)

"Science is the systematic classification of experience." (George H Lewes, "The Physical Basis of Mind", 1877)

"Experience teaches that one will be led to new discoveries almost exclusively by means of special mechanical models." (Ludwig Boltzmann, "Lectures on Gas Theory", 1896)

"Philosophy, like science, consists of theories or insights arrived at as a result of systemic reflection or reasoning in regard to the data of experience. It involves, therefore, the analysis of experience and the synthesis of the results of analysis into a comprehensive or unitary conception. Philosophy seeks a totality and harmony of reasoned insight into the nature and meaning of all the principal aspects of reality." (Joseph A Leighton, "The Field of Philosophy: An outline of lectures on introduction to philosophy", 1919)

"Abstraction is the detection of a common quality in the characteristics of a number of diverse observations […] A hypothesis serves the same purpose, but in a different way. It relates apparently diverse experiences, not by directly detecting a common quality in the experiences themselves, but by inventing a fictitious substance or process or idea, in terms of which the experience can be expressed. A hypothesis, in brief, correlates observations by adding something to them, while abstraction achieves the same end by subtracting something." (Herbert Dingle, Science and Human Experience, 1931)

"It can scarcely be denied that the supreme goal of all theory is to make the irreducible basic elements as simple and as few as possible without having to surrender the adequate representation of a single datum of experience." (Albert Einstein, [lecture] 1933)

"A scientist, whether theorist or experimenter, puts forward statements, or systems of statements, and tests them step by step. In the field of the empirical sciences, more particularly, he constructs hypotheses, or systems of theories, and tests them against experience by observation and experiment." (Karl Popper, "The Logic of Scientific Discovery", 1934)

"Science does not aim, primarily, at high probabilities. It aims at a high informative content, well backed by experience. But a hypothesis may be very probable simply because it tells us nothing, or very little." (Karl Popper, "The Logic of Scientific Discovery", 1934) 

"Science is a system of statements based on direct experience, and controlled by experimental verification. Verification in science is not, however, of single statements but of the entire system or a sub-system of such statements." (Rudolf Carnap, "The Unity of Science", 1934)

"Science is the attempt to make the chaotic diversity of our sense experience correspond to a logically uniform system of thought." (Albert Einstein, "Considerations Concerning the Fundaments of Theoretical Physics", Science Vol. 91 (2369), 1940)

"A model, like a novel, may resonate with nature, but it is not a ‘real’ thing. Like a novel, a model may be convincing - it may ‘ring true’ if it is consistent with our experience of the natural world. But just as we may wonder how much the characters in a novel are drawn from real life and how much is artifice, we might ask the same of a model: How much is based on observation and measurement of accessible phenomena, how much is convenience? Fundamentally, the reason for modeling is a lack of full access, either in time or space, to the phenomena of interest." (Kenneth Belitz, Science, Vol. 263, 1944)

"Every bit of knowledge we gain and every conclusion we draw about the universe or about any part or feature of it depends finally upon some observation or measurement. Mankind has had again and again the humiliating experience of trusting to intuitive, apparently logical conclusions without observations, and has seen Nature sail by in her radiant chariot of gold in an entirely different direction." (Oliver J Lee, "Measuring Our Universe: From the Inner Atom to Outer Space", 1950)

"Statistics is the name for that science and art which deals with uncertain inferences - which uses numbers to find out something about nature and experience." (Warren Weaver, 1952)

"The only relevant test of the validity of a hypothesis is comparison of prediction with experience." (Milton Friedman, "Essays in Positive Economics", 1953)

"Mathematical statistics provides an exceptionally clear example of the relationship between mathematics and the external world. The external world provides the experimentally measured distribution curve; mathematics provides the equation (the mathematical model) that corresponds to the empirical curve. The statistician may be guided by a thought experiment in finding the corresponding equation." (Marshall J Walker, "The Nature of Scientific Thought", 1963)

"Experience without theory teaches nothing." (William E Deming, "Out of the Crisis", 1986)

"A discovery in science, or a new theory, even where it appears most unitary and most all-embracing, deals with some immediate element of novelty or paradox within the framework of far vaster, unanalyzed, unarticulated reserves of knowledge, experience, faith, and presupposition. Our progress is narrow: it takes a vast world unchallenged and for granted." (James R Oppenheimer, "Atom and Void", 1989)

"It is ironic but true: the one reality science cannot reduce is the only reality we will ever know. This is why we need art. By expressing our actual experience, the artist reminds us that our science is incomplete, that no map of matter will ever explain the immateriality of our consciousness." (Jonah Lehrer, "Proust Was a Neuroscientist", 2011)

"Science, at its core, is simply a method of practical logic that tests hypotheses against experience. Scientism, by contrast, is the worldview and value system that insists that the questions the scientific method can answer are the most important questions human beings can ask, and that the picture of the world yielded by science is a better approximation to reality than any other." (John M Greer, "After Progress: Reason and Religion at the End of the Industrial Age", 2015)

02 May 2021

🦋Science: On Definitions (Quotes)

"Rules for Demonstrations. I. Not to undertake to demonstrate any thing that is so evident of itself that nothing can be given that is clearer to prove it. II. To prove all propositions at all obscure, and to employ in their proof only very evident maxims or propositions already admitted or demonstrated. III. To always mentally substitute definitions in the place of things defined, in order not to be misled by the ambiguity of terms which have been restricted by definitions." (Blaise Pascal, "Pensées", 1670)

"Rules necessary for definitions. Not to leave any terms at all obscure or ambiguous without definition; Not to employ in definitions any but terms perfectly known or already explained. […] A few rules include all that is necessary for the perfection of the definitions, the axioms, and the demonstrations, and consequently of the entire method of the geometrical proofs of the art of persuading." (Blaise Pascal, "Pensées", 1670)

"The errors of definitions multiply themselves according as the reckoning proceeds; and lead men into absurdities, which at last they see but cannot avoid, without reckoning anew from the beginning." (Thomas Hobbes, "The Moral and Political Works of Thomas Hobbes of Malmesbury", 1750)

"Definitions might be good if we did not employ words in making them." (Jean-Jacques Rousseau, "Emile, or, Treatise on Education", 1762)

"A definition is nothing else but an explication of the meaning of a word, by words whose meaning is already known. Hence it is evident that every word cannot be defined; for the definition must consist of words; and there could be no definition, if there were not words previously understood without definition." (Thomas Reid, "Essays on the Intellectual Powers of Man", 1785)

"There is nothing more difficult than a good definition, for it is scarcely possible to express, in a few words, the abstracted view of an infinite variety of facts." (Humphry Davy, "Consolations in Travel, or the Last Days of a Philosopher", 1830)

"It is the essence of a scientific definition to be causative, not by introduction of imaginary somewhats, natural or supernatural, under the name of causes, but by announcing the law of action in the particular case, in subordination to the common law of which all the phenomena are modifications or results." (Samuel T Coleridge, "Hints Towards the Formation of a More Comprehensive Theory of Life, The Nature of Life", 1847)

"The dimmed outlines of phenomenal things all merge into one another unless we put on the focusing-glass of theory, and screw it up sometimes to one pitch of definition and sometimes to another, so as to see down into different depths through the great millstone of the world." (James C Maxwell, "Are There Real Analogies in Nature?", 1856)

"Questions of Definition are of the very highest importance in Philosophy, and they need to be watched accordingly." (George Campbell, "A Fourth State of Matter, Nature", 1880)

"We say it is ‘explanation’ but it is only in ‘description’ that we are in advance of the older stages of knowledge and science. We describe better we explain just as little as our predecessors." (Friedrich W Nietzsche, "The Joyful Wisdom", 1887)

"The more elevated a culture, the richer its language. The number of words and their combinations depends directly on a sum of conceptions and ideas; without the latter there can be no understandings, no definitions, and, as a result, no reason to enrich a language. (Anton Chekhov, [letter to A.S. Suvorin] 1892)

"A definition is the enclosing a wilderness of idea within a wall of words." (Samuel Butler, "The Note-Books of Samuel Butler", 1912)

"In every new and growing science there are many working hypotheses that never attain to any sort of reality. On the other hand, in the old and abstract sciences of mathematics, where it is hard to tell how much is mere definition or convention, the problem of reality is not so much doubtful as it is meaningless." (Gilbert N Lewis, "The Anatomy of Science", 1926)

"If we wish to express our ideas in terms of the concepts synthetic and analytic, we would have to point out that these concepts are applicable only to sentences that can be either true of false, and not to definitions. The mathematical axioms are therefore neither synthetic nor analytic, but definitions. [...] Hence the question of whether axioms are a priori becomes pointless since they are arbitrary." (Hans Reichenbach, "The Philosophy of Space and Time", 1928)

"A Weltanschauung [worldview] is an intellectual construction which solves all the problems of our existence uniformly on the basis of one overriding hypothesis, which, accordingly, leaves no question unanswered and in which everything that interests us finds its fixed place [...] the worldview of science already departs noticeably from our definition. It is true that it too assumes the uniformity of the explanation of the universe; but it does so only as a programme, the fulfillment of which is relegated to the future." Sigmund Freud, "New introductory lectures on psycho-analysis", 1932)

"Scientific Ideas can often be adequately exhibited for all the purposes of reasoning, by means of Definitions and Axioms; all attempts to reason by means of Definitions from common Notions, lead to empty forms or entire confusion." (William Whewell, "History of the Inductive Sciences from the Earliest to the Present Time", 1937)

"The view is often defended that sciences should be built up on clear and sharply defined basal concepts. In actual fact no science, not even the most exact, begins with such definitions. The true beginning of scientific activity consists rather in describing phenomena and then in proceeding to group, classify and correlate them." (Sigmund Freud, "Collected Papers", 1950)

"Being built on concepts, hypotheses, and experiments, laws are no more accurate or trustworthy than the wording of the definitions and the accuracy and extent of the supporting experiments." (Gerald Holton, "Introduction to Concepts and Theories in Physical Science", 1952)

"The word 'definition' has come to have a dangerously reassuring sound, owing no doubt to its frequent occurrence in logical and mathematical writings." (Willard van Orman Quine, "From a Logical Point of View", 1953)

"We cannot define truth in science until we move from fact to law. And within the body of laws in turn, what impresses us as truth is the orderly coherence of the pieces. They fit together like the characters of a great novel, or like the words of a poem. Indeed, we should keep that last analogy by us always, for science is a language, and like a language it defines its parts by the way they make up a meaning. Every word in a sentence has some uncertainty of definition, and yet the sentence defines its own meaning and that of its words conclusively. It is the internal unity and coherence of science which gives it truth, and which makes it a better system of prediction than any less orderly language." (Jacob Bronowski, "The Common Sense of Science", 1953)

"The exact verbal definition of qualitative concepts is more often the province of philosophy than of physical science." (Ronnie Bell, "The Proton in Chemistry", 1959)

"In order that a mathematical science of any importance may be founded upon conventional definitions, the entities created by them must have properties which bear some affinity to the properties of existing things." (John H C Whitehead, A Treatise on Universal Algebra, with Applications, 1960)

"The view is often defended that sciences should be built up on clear and sharply defined basal concepts. In actual fact no science, not even the most exact, begins with such definitions. The true beginning of scientific activity consists rather in describing phenomena and then in proceeding to group, classify and correlate them." (Sigmund Freud, "General Psychological Theory", 1963)

"This other world is the so-called physical world image; it is merely an intellectual structure. To a certain extent it is arbitrary. It is a kind of model or idealization created in order to avoid the inaccuracy inherent in every measurement and to facilitate exact definition." (Max Planck, "The Philosophy of Physics", 1963)

"If all the theories pertinent to systems engineering could be discussed within a common framework by means of a standard set of nomenclature and definitions, many separate courses might not be required." (A Wayne Wymore, "A Mathematical Theory of Systems Engineering", 1967)

"Definitions are the guardians of rationality, the first line of defense against the chaos of mental disintegration. (Ayn Rand, The Romantic Manifesto, 1969)

"Concepts form the basis for any science. These are ideas, usually somewhat vague (especially when first encountered), which often defy really adequate definition. The meaning of a new concept can seldom be grasped from reading a one-paragraph discussion. There must be time to become accustomed to the concept, to investigate it with prior knowledge, and to associate it with personal experience. Inability to work with details of a new subject can often be traced to inadequate understanding of its basic concepts." (William C Reynolds & Harry C Perkins, "Engineering Thermodynamics", 1977)

"Definitions, like questions and metaphors, are instruments for thinking. Their authority rests entirely on their usefulness, not their correctness. We use definitions in order to delineate problems we wish to investigate, or to further interests we wish to promote. In other words, we invent definitions and discard them as suits our purposes." (Neil Postman, "Language Education in a Knowledge Context", 1980)

"When terms [...] evolve and change definition with time; and when the social reality which terms are intended to organize and render intelligible is also seen to be in flux, capturing the truth in a net of words becomes a matter of intuition and style more than of any scientific method that can be replicated by others and made to achieve the same result every time someone asks the same question, or undertakes the same operations." (William H McNeill, "Discrepancies among the Social Sciences", 1981)

"Definitions are temporary verbalizations of concepts, and concepts - particularly difficult concepts - are usually revised repeatedly as our knowledge and understanding grows." (Ernst Mayr, "The Growth of Biological Thought", 1982)

"The assumptions and definitions of mathematics and science come from our intuition, which is based ultimately on experience. They then get shaped by further experience in using them and are occasionally revised. They are not fixed for all eternity." (Richard Hamming, "Methods of Mathematics Applied to Calculus, Probability, and Statistics", 1985)

"A full definition of an object must include the whole of human experience, both as a criterion of truth and a practical indicator of its connection with human wants." (Vladimir Lenin)

"Every physical concept must be given a definition such that one can in principle describe, in virtue of this definition, whether or not it applies in each particular case." (Albert Einstein)

"Fundamental definitions do not arise at the start but at the end of the exploration, because in order to define a thing you must know what it is and what it is good for." (Hans Freudenthal)

"We begin to reason from sensible objects, and definition is the end and epilogue of science. It is not the beginning of our knowing, but only of our teaching." (Tommaso Campanella)

28 April 2021

🦋Science: On Observation (Quotes)

"[…] it is not necessary that these hypotheses should be true, or even probably; but it is enough if they provide a calculus which fits the observations […]" (Andrew Osiander, "On the Revolutions of the Heavenly Spheres", 1543)

"[…] it is from long experience chiefly that we are to expect the most certain rules of practice, yet it is withal to be remembered, that observations, and to put us upon the most probable means of improving any art, is to get the best insight we can into the nature and properties of those things which we are desirous to cultivate and improve." (Stephen Hales, "Vegetable Staticks", 1727) 

"Those who have not imbibed the prejudices of philosophers, are easily convinced that natural knowledge is to be founded on experiment and observation." (Colin Maclaurin, "An Account of Sir Isaac Newton’s Philosophical Discoveries", 1748)

"We have three principal means: observation of nature, reflection, and experiment. Observation gathers the facts reflection combines them, experiment verifies the result of the combination. It is essential that the observation of nature be assiduous, that reflection be profound, and that experimentation be exact. Rarely does one see these abilities in combination. And so, creative geniuses are not common." (Denis Diderot, "On the Interpretation of Nature", 1753)

"Facts, observations, experiments - these are the materials of a great edifice, but in assembling them we must combine them into classes, distinguish which belongs to which order and to which part of the whole each pertains." (Antoine L Lavoisier, "Mémoires de l’Académie Royale des Sciences", 1777)

"On the other hand, if we add observation to observation, without attempting to draw no only certain conclusions, but also conjectural views from them, we offend against the very end for which only observations ought to be made." (Friedrich W Herschel, "On the Construction of the Heavens", Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Vol. LXXV, 1785)

"[It] may be laid down as a general rule that, if the result of a long series of precise observations approximates a simple relation so closely that the remaining difference is undetectable by observation and may be attributed to the errors to which they are liable, then this relation is probably that of nature." (Pierre-Simon Laplace, "Mémoire sur les Inégalites Séculaires des Planètes et des Satellites", 1787)

"The art of drawing conclusions from experiments and observations consists in evaluating probabilities and in estimating whether they are sufficiently great or numerous enough to constitute proofs. This kind of calculation is more complicated and more difficult than it is commonly thought to be […]" (Antoine-Laurent Lavoisier, cca. 1790)

"We must trust to nothing but facts: These are presented to us by Nature, and cannot deceive. We ought, in every instance, to submit our reasoning to the test of experiment, and never to search for truth but by the natural road of experiment and observation." (Antoin-Laurent de Lavoisiere, "Elements of Chemistry", 1790)

"Conjecture may lead you to form opinions, but it cannot produce knowledge. Natural philosophy must be built upon the phenomena of nature discovered by observation and experiment." (George Adams, "Lectures on Natural and Experimental Philosophy" Vol. 1, 1794)

"In order to supply the defects of experience, we will have recourse to the probable conjectures of analogy, conclusions which we will bequeath to our posterity to be ascertained by new observations, which, if we augur rightly, will serve to establish our theory and to carry it gradually nearer to absolute certainty." (Johann H Lambert, "The System of the World", 1800)

"[…] we must not measure the simplicity of the laws of nature by our facility of conception; but when those which appear to us the most simple, accord perfectly with observations of the phenomena, we are justified in supposing them rigorously exact." (Pierre-Simon Laplace, "The System of the World", 1809)

"Primary causes are unknown to us; but are subject to simple and constant laws, which may be discovered by observation, the study of them being the object of natural philosophy." (Jean-Baptiste-Joseph Fourier, "The Analytical Theory of Heat", 1822)

"The aim of every science is foresight. For the laws of established observation of phenomena are generally employed to foresee their succession. All men, however little advanced make true predictions, which are always based on the same principle, the knowledge of the future from the past." (Auguste Compte, "Plan des travaux scientifiques nécessaires pour réorganiser la société", 1822)

"The framing of hypotheses is, for the enquirer after truth, not the end, but the beginning of his work. Each of his systems is invented, not that he may admire it and follow it into all its consistent consequences, but that he may make it the occasion of a course of active experiment and observation. And if the results of this process contradict his fundamental assumptions, however ingenious, however symmetrical, however elegant his system may be, he rejects it without hesitation. He allows no natural yearning for the offspring of his own mind to draw him aside from the higher duty of loyalty to his sovereign, Truth, to her he not only gives his affections and his wishes, but strenuous labour and scrupulous minuteness of attention." (William Whewell, "Philosophy of the Inductive Sciences" Vol. 2, 1847)

"In the fields of observation chance favors only the prepared mind." (Louis Pasteur, [lecture] 1854)

"When a power of nature, invisible and impalpable, is the subject of scientific inquiry, it is necessary, if we would comprehend its essence and properties, to study its manifestations and effects. For this purpose simple observation is insufficient, since error always lies on the surface, whilst truth must be sought in deeper regions." (Justus von Liebig," Familiar Letters on Chemistry", 1859)

"Observation is so wide awake, and facts are being so rapidly added to the sum of human experience, that it appears as if the theorizer would always be in arrears, and were doomed forever to arrive at imperfect conclusion; but the power to perceive a law is equally rare in all ages of the world, and depends but little on the number of facts observed." (Henry D Thoreau, "A Week on the Concord and Merrimack Rivers", 1862)

"The process of discovery is very simple. An unwearied and systematic application of known laws to nature, causes the unknown to reveal themselves. Almost any mode of observation will be successful at last, for what is most wanted is method." (Henry D Thoreau, "A Week on the Concord and Merrimack Rivers", 1862)

"An anticipative idea or an hypothesis is, then, the necessary starting point for all experimental reasoning. Without it, we could not make any investigation at all nor learn anything; we could only pile up sterile observations. If we experiment without a preconceived idea, we should move at random […]" (Claude Bernard, "An Introduction to the Study of Experimental Medicine", 1865)

"Men who have excessive faith in their theories or ideas are not only ill prepared for making discoveries; they also make very poor observations." (Claude Bernard, "An Introduction to the Study of Experimental Medicine", 1865)

"Only within very narrow boundaries can man observe the phenomena which surround him; most of them naturally escape his senses, and mere observation is not enough." (Claude Bernard, "An Introduction to the Study of Experimental Medicine", 1865)

"[…] wrong hypotheses, rightly worked from, have produced more useful results than unguided observation." (Augustus de Morgan, "A Budget of Paradoxes", 1872)

"Every science begins by accumulating observations, and presently generalizes these empirically; but only when it reaches the stage at which its empirical generalizations are included in a rational generalization does it become developed science." (Herbert Spencer, "The Data of Ethics", 1879)

"Science is the observation of things possible, whether present or past; prescience is the knowledge of things which may come to pass, though but slowly." (Leonardo da Vinci, "The Notebooks of Leonardo da Vinci", 1883)

"Even one well-made observation will be enough in many cases, just as one well-constructed experiment often suffices for the establishment of a law." (Émile Durkheim, "The Rules of Sociological Method", "The Rules of Sociological Method", 1895)

"Every experiment, every observation has, besides its immediate result, effects which, in proportion to its value, spread always on all sides into ever distant parts of knowledge." (Sir Michael Foster, "Annual Report of the Board of Regents of the Smithsonian Institution", 1898)

"The primary basis of all scientific thinking is observation." (Douglas Marsland, "Principles of Modern Biology", 1899)

"To observe is not enough. We must use our observations, and to do that we must generalize." (Henri Poincaré, "Science and Hypothesis", 1902)

"An isolated sensation teaches us nothing, for it does not amount to an observation. Observation is a putting together of several results of sensation which are or are supposed to be connected with each other according to the law of causality, so that some represent causes and others their effects." (Thorvald N Thiele, "Theory of Observations", 1903)

"Man's determination not to be deceived is precisely the origin of the problem of knowledge. The question is always and only this: to learn to know and to grasp reality in the midst of a thousand causes of error which tend to vitiate our observation." (Federigo Enriques, "Problems of Science", 1906)

"An experiment is an observation that can be repeated, isolated and varied. The more frequently you can repeat an observation, the more likely are you to see clearly what is there and to describe accurately what you have seen. The more strictly you can isolate an observation, the easier does your task of observation become, and the less danger is there of your being led astray by irrelevant circumstances, or of placing emphasis on the wrong point. The more widely you can vary an observation, the more clearly will be the uniformity of experience stand out, and the better is your chance of discovering laws." (Edward B Titchener, "A Text-Book of Psychology", 1909)

"Neither logic without observation, nor observation without logic, can move one step in the formation of science." (Alfred N Whitehead, "The Organization of Thought", 1916)

"A discovery is rarely, if ever, a sudden achievement, nor is it the work of one man; a long series of observations, each in turn received in doubt and discussed in hostility, are familiarized by time, and lead at last to the gradual disclosure of truth." (Sir Berkeley Moynihan, "Surgery, Gynecology & Obstetrics" Vol. 31, 1920)

"In the world of natural knowledge, no authority is great enough to support a theory when a crucial observation has shown it to be untenable." (Sir Richard A Gregory, "Discovery; or, The Spirit and Service of Science", 1928)

"Science is but a method. Whatever its material, an observation accurately made and free of compromise to bias and desire, and undeterred by consequence, is science." (Hans Zinsser, "Untheological Reflections", The Atlantic Monthly, 1929)

"Abstraction is the detection of a common quality in the characteristics of a number of diverse observations […] A hypothesis serves the same purpose, but in a different way. It relates apparently diverse experiences, not by directly detecting a common quality in the experiences themselves, but by inventing a fictitious substance or process or idea, in terms of which the experience can be expressed. A hypothesis, in brief, correlates observations by adding something to them, while abstraction achieves the same end by subtracting something." (Herbert Dingle, Science and Human Experience, 1931)

"A scientist, whether theorist or experimenter, puts forward statements, or systems of statements, and tests them step by step. In the field of the empirical sciences, more particularly, he constructs hypotheses, or systems of theories, and tests them against experience by observation and experiment." (Karl Popper, "The Logic of Scientific Discovery", 1934)

"Science is the attempt to discover, by means of observation, and reasoning based upon it, first, particular facts about the world, and then laws connecting facts with one another and (in fortunate cases) making it possible to predict future occurrences." (Bertrand Russell, "Religion and Science, Grounds of Conflict", 1935)

"Starting from statistical observations, it is possible to arrive at conclusions which not less reliable or useful than those obtained in any other exact science. It is only necessary to apply a clear and precise concept of probability to such observations. " (Richard von Mises, "Probability, Statistics, and Truth", 1939)

"Experiment as compared with mere observation has some of the characteristics of cross-examining nature rather than merely overhearing her." (Alan Gregg, "The Furtherance of Medical Research", 1941)

"Science, in the broadest sense, is the entire body of the most accurately tested, critically established, systematized knowledge available about that part of the universe which has come under human observation. For the most part this knowledge concerns the forces impinging upon human beings in the serious business of living and thus affecting man’s adjustment to and of the physical and the social world. […] Pure science is more interested in understanding, and applied science is more interested in control […]" (Austin L Porterfield, "Creative Factors in Scientific Research", 1941)

"We see what we want to see, and observation conforms to hypothesis." (Bergen Evans, "The Natural History of Nonsense", 1947)

"[...] the conception of chance enters in the very first steps of scientific activity in virtue of the fact that no observation is absolutely correct. I think chance is a more fundamental conception that causality; for whether in a concrete case, a cause-effect relation holds or not can only be judged by applying the laws of chance to the observation." (Max Born, 1949)

"Every bit of knowledge we gain and every conclusion we draw about the universe or about any part or feature of it depends finally upon some observation or measurement. Mankind has had again and again the humiliating experience of trusting to intuitive, apparently logical conclusions without observations, and has seen Nature sail by in her radiant chariot of gold in an entirely different direction." (Oliver J Lee, "Measuring Our Universe: From the Inner Atom to Outer Space", 1950)

"Science is an interconnected series of concepts and schemes that have developed as a result of experimentation and observation and are fruitful of further experimentation and observation."(James B Conant, "Science and Common Sense", 1951)

"The stumbling way in which even the ablest of the scientists in every generation have had to fight through thickets of erroneous observations, misleading generalizations, inadequate formulations, and unconscious prejudice is rarely appreciated by those who obtain their scientific knowledge from textbooks." (James B Conant, "Science and Common Sense", 1951)

"The methods of science may be described as the discovery of laws, the explanation of laws by theories, and the testing of theories by new observations. A good analogy is that of the jigsaw puzzle, for which the laws are the individual pieces, the theories local patterns suggested by a few pieces, and the tests the completion of these patterns with pieces previously unconsidered." (Edwin P Hubble, "The Nature of Science and Other Lectures", 1954)

"The discrete change has only to become small enough in its jump to approximate as closely as is desired to the continuous change. It must further be remembered that in natural phenomena the observations are almost invariably made at discrete intervals; the 'continuity' ascribed to natural events has often been put there by the observer's imagina- tion, not by actual observation at each of an infinite number of points. Thus the real truth is that the natural system is observed at discrete points, and our transformation represents it at discrete points. There can, therefore, be no real incompatibility." (W Ross Ashby, "An Introduction to Cybernetics", 1956)

"Scientists whose work has no clear, practical implications would want to make their decisions considering such things as: the relative worth of (1) more observations, (2) greater scope of his conceptual model, (3) simplicity, (4) precision of language, (5) accuracy of the probability assignment." (C West Churchman, "Costs, Utilities, and Values", 1956)

"No observations are absolutely trustworthy. In no field of observation can we entirely rule out the possibility that an observation is vitiated by a large measurement or execution error. If a reading is found to lie a very long way from its fellows in a series of replicate observations, there must be a suspicion that the deviation is caused by a blunder or gross error of some kind. [...] One sufficiently erroneous reading can wreck the whole of a statistical analysis, however many observations there are." (Francis J Anscombe, "Rejection of Outliers", Technometrics Vol. 2 (2), 1960)

"Observation, reason, and experiment make up what we call the scientific method. (Richard Feynman, "Mainly mechanics, radiation, and heat", 1963)

"As soon as we inquire into the reasons for the phenomena, we enter the domain of theory, which connects the observed phenomena and traces them back to a single ‘pure’ phenomena, thus bringing about a logical arrangement of an enormous amount of observational material." (Georg Joos, "Theoretical Physics", 1968)

"[…] the link between observation and formulation is one of the most difficult and crucial in the scientific enterprise. It is the process of interpreting our theory or, as some say, of ‘operationalizing our concepts’. Our creations in the world of possibility must be fitted in the world of probability; in Kant’s epigram, ‘Concepts without precepts are empty’. It is also the process of relating our observations to theory; to finish the epigram, ‘Precepts without concepts are blind’." (Scott Greer, "The Logic of Social Inquiry", 1969)

"Innocent, unbiased observation is a myth." (Sir Peter B Medawar, Induction and Intuition in Scientific Thought, 1969)

"The advantages of models are, on one hand, that they force us to present a 'complete' theory by which I mean a theory taking into account all relevant phenomena and relations and, on the other hand, the confrontation with observation, that is, reality." (Jan Tinbergen, "The Use of Models: Experience," 1969)

"Science consists simply of the formulation and testing of hypotheses based on observational evidence; experiments are important where applicable, but their function is merely to simplify observation by imposing controlled conditions." (Henry L Batten, "Evolution of the Earth", 1971)

"All perceiving is also thinking, all reasoning is also intuition, all observation is also invention." (Rudolf Arnheim, "Entropy and Art: An Essay on Disorder and Order", 1974)

"No theory ever agrees with all the facts in its domain, yet it is not always the theory that is to blame. Facts are constituted by older ideologies, and a clash between facts and theories may be proof of progress. It is also a first step in our attempt to find the principles implicit in familiar observational notions." (Paul K Feyerabend, "Against Method: Outline of an Anarchistic Theory of Knowledge", 1975)

"The essential function of a hypothesis consists in the guidance it affords to new observations and experiments, by which our conjecture is either confirmed or refuted." (Ernst Mach, "Knowledge and Error: Sketches on the Psychology of Enquiry", 1976)

"After all of this it is a miracle that our models describe anything at all successfully. In fact, they describe many things well: we observe what they have predicted, and we understand what we observe. However, this last act of observation and understanding always eludes physical description." (Yuri I Manin, "Mathematics and Physics", 1981)

"Science is a process. It is a way of thinking, a manner of approaching and of possibly resolving problems, a route by which one can produce order and sense out of disorganized and chaotic observations. Through it we achieve useful conclusions and results that are compelling and upon which there is a tendency to agree." (Isaac Asimov, "‘X’ Stands for Unknown", 1984)

"Science is defined as a set of observations and theories about observations." (F Albert Matsen, "The Role of Theory in Chemistry", Journal of Chemical Education Vol. 62 (5), 1985)

"The only touchstone for empirical truth is experiment and observation." (Heinz Pagels, "Perfect Symmetry: The Search for the Beginning of Time", 1985)

"The model is only a suggestive metaphor, a fiction about the messy and unwieldy observations of the real world. In order for it to be persuasive, to convey a sense of credibility, it is important that it not be too complicated and that the assumptions that are made be clearly in evidence. In short, the model must be simple, transparent, and verifiable." (Edward Beltrami, "Mathematics for Dynamic Modeling", 1987)

"A theory is a good theory if it satisfies two requirements: it must accurately describe a large class of observations on the basis of a model that contains only a few arbitrary elements, and it must make definite predictions about the results of future observations." (Stephen Hawking, "A Brief History of Time: From Big Bang To Black Holes", 1988)

"A law explains a set of observations; a theory explains a set of laws. […] a law applies to observed phenomena in one domain (e.g., planetary bodies and their movements), while a theory is intended to unify phenomena in many domains. […] Unlike laws, theories often postulate unobservable objects as part of their explanatory mechanism." (John L Casti, "Searching for Certainty: How Scientists Predict the Future", 1990)

"A model is often judged by how well it 'explains' some observations. There need not be a unique model for a particular situation, nor need a model cover every possible special case. A model is not reality, it merely helps to explain some of our impressions of reality. [...] Different models may thus seem to contradict each other, yet we may use both in their appropriate places." (Richard W Hamming, "The Art of Probability for Scientists and Engineers", 1991)

"The ability of a scientific theory to be refuted is the key criterion that distinguishes science from metaphysics. If a theory cannot be refuted, if there is no observation that will disprove it, then nothing can prove it - it cannot predict anything, it is a worthless myth." (Eric Lerner, "The Big Bang Never Happened", 1991)

"It is in the nature of theoretical science that there can be no such thing as certainty. A theory is only ‘true’ for as long as the majority of the scientific community maintain the view that the theory is the one best able to explain the observations." (Jim Baggott, "The Meaning of Quantum Theory", 1992)

"The art of science is knowing which observations to ignore and which are the key to the puzzle." (Edward W Kolb, "Blind Watchers of the Sky", 1996)

"The rate of the development of science is not the rate at which you make observations alone but, much more important, the rate at which you create new things to test." (Richard Feynman, "The Meaning of It All", 1998)

"[…] because observations are all we have, we take them seriously. We choose hard data and the framework of mathematics as our guides, not unrestrained imagination or unrelenting skepticism, and seek the simplest yet most wide-reaching theories capable of explaining and predicting the outcome of today’s and future experiments." (Brian Greene, "The Fabric of the Cosmos", 2004)

"A model is a good model if it:1. Is elegant 2. Contains few arbitrary or adjustable elements 3. Agrees with and explains all existing observations 4. Makes detailed predictions about future observations that can disprove or falsify the model if they are not borne out." (Stephen Hawking & Leonard Mlodinow, "The Grand Design", 2010)

24 April 2021

🦋Science: On Prediction (Quotes)

"The aim of every science is foresight. For the laws of established observation of phenomena are generally employed to foresee their succession. All men, however little advanced make true predictions, which are always based on the same principle, the knowledge of the future from the past." (Auguste Compte, "Plan des travaux scientifiques nécessaires pour réorganiser la société", 1822)

"As a science progresses, its power of foresight rapidly increases, until the mathematician in his library acquires the power of anticipating nature, and predicting what will happen in circumstances which the eye of man has never examined." (William S Jevons, "The Principles of Science: A Treatise on Logic and Scientific Method", 1874)

"No matter how solidly founded a prediction may appear to us, we are never absolutely sure that experiment will not contradict it, if we undertake to verify it . […] It is far better to foresee even without certainty than not to foresee at all." (Henri Poincaré, "The Foundations of Science", 1913)

"In scientific thought we adopt the simplest theory which will explain all the facts under consideration and enable us to predict facts of the same kind. The  catch in this criterion lies in the world 'simplest'." (John B S Haldane, "Possible Worlds and Other Essays", 1928)

"It is characteristic of a good scientific theory that it makes no more assumptions than are needed to explain the facts under consideration and predict a few more." (John B S Haldane, "Possible Worlds and Other Essays", 1928)

"[…] the statistical prediction of the future from the past cannot be generally valid, because whatever is future to any given past, is in tum past for some future. That is, whoever continually revises his judgment of the probability of a statistical generalization by its successively observed verifications and failures, cannot fail to make more successful predictions than if he should disregard the past in his anticipation of the future. This might be called the ‘Principle of statistical accumulation’." (Clarence I Lewis, "Mind and the World-Order: Outline of a Theory of Knowledge", 1929)

"Postulate 1. All chance systems of causes are not alike in the sense that they enable us to predict the future in terms of the past. Postulate 2. Constant systems of chance causes do exist in nature. Postulate 3. Assignable causes of variation may be found and eliminated."(Walter A Shewhart, "Economic Control of Quality of Manufactured Product", 1931)

"Rule 1. Original data should be presented in a way that will preserve the evidence in the original data for all the predictions assumed to be useful." (Walter A Shewhart, "Economic Control of Quality of Manufactured Product", 1931)

"Rule 2. Any summary of a distribution of numbers in terms of symmetric functions should not give an objective degree of belief in any one of the inferences or predictions to be made therefrom that would cause human action significantly different from what this action would be if the original distributions had been taken as evidence." (Walter A Shewhart, "Economic Control of Quality of Manufactured Product", 1931)

"Factual science may collect statistics, and make charts. But its predictions are, as has been well said, but past history reversed." (John Dewey, "Art as Experience", 1934)

"It is never possible to predict a physical occurrence with unlimited precision." (Max Planck, "A Scientific Autobiography", 1949)

"To say that observations of the past are certain, whereas predictions are merely probable, is not the ultimate answer to the question of induction; it is only a sort of intermediate answer, which is incomplete unless a theory of probability is developed that explains what we should mean by ‘probable’ and on what ground we can assert probabilities." (Hans Reichenbach, "The Rise of Scientific Philosophy", 1951)

"The world is not made up of empirical facts with the addition of the laws of nature: what we call the laws of nature are conceptual devices by which we organize our empirical knowledge and predict the future." (Richard B Braithwaite, "Scientific Explanation", 1953)

"The predictions of physical theories for the most part concern situations where initial conditions can be precisely specified. If such initial conditions are not found in nature, they can be arranged." (Anatol Rapoport, "The Search for Simplicity", 1956)

"Predictions, prophecies, and perhaps even guidance – those who suggested this title to me must have hoped for such-even though occasional indulgences in such actions by statisticians has undoubtedly contributed to the characterization of a statistician as a man who draws straight lines from insufficient data to foregone conclusions!" (John W Tukey, "Where do We Go From Here?", Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 55, No. 289, 1960)

"Can there be laws of chance? The answer, it would seem should be negative, since chance is in fact defined as the characteristic of the phenomena which follow no law, phenomena whose causes are too complex to permit prediction." (Félix E Borel, "Probabilities and Life", 1962)

"[…] All predictions are statistical, but some predictions have such a high probability that one tends to regard them as certain." (Marshall J Walker, "The Nature of Scientific Thought", 1963)

"Measurement, we have seen, always has an element of error in it. The most exact description or prediction that a scientist can make is still only approximate." (Abraham Kaplan, "The Conduct of Inquiry: Methodology for Behavioral Science", 1964)

"The usefulness of the models in constructing a testable theory of the process is severely limited by the quickly increasing number of parameters which must be estimated in order to compare the predictions of the models with empirical results" (Anatol Rapoport, "Prisoner's Dilemma: A study in conflict and cooperation", 1965)

"It is of course desirable to work with manageable models which maximize generality, realism, and precision toward the overlapping but not identical goals of understanding, predicting, and modifying nature. But this cannot be done."(Richard Levins, "The strategy of model building in population biology", American Scientist Vol. 54 (4), 1966)

"To make a prediction would mean (using the term in the sense we propose) to venture to try to 'guess', among the possible alternatives, the one that will occur. This is an attempt often made, not only by would-be magicians and prophets, but also by experts and such like who are inclined to precast the future in the forge of their fantasies). To make a 'prediction', therefore, would not entail leaving the domain of the logic of certainty, but simply including the statements and data which we assume ourselves capable of guessing, along with the ascertained truths and the collected data." (Bruno de Finetti, "Theory of Probability", 1974)

"The moment you forecast you know you’re going to be wrong, you just don’t know when and in which direction." (Edgar R Fiedler, 1977)

"Prediction of the future is possible only in systems that have stable parameters like celestial mechanics. The only reason why prediction is so successful in celestial mechanics is that the evolution of the solar system has ground to a halt in what is essentially a dynamic equilibrium with stable parameters. Evolutionary systems, however, by their very nature have unstable parameters. They are disequilibrium systems and in such systems our power of prediction, though not zero, is very limited because of the unpredictability of the parameters themselves. If, of course, it were possible to predict the change in the parameters, then there would be other parameters which were unchanged, but the search for ultimately stable parameters in evolutionary systems is futile, for they probably do not exist… Social systems have Heisenberg principles all over the place, for we cannot predict the future without changing it." (Kenneth E Boulding, Evolutionary Economics, 1981)

"Prediction can never be absolutely valid and therefore science can never prove some generalization or even test a single descriptive statement and in that way arrive at final truth." (Gregory Bateson, Mind and Nature: A necessary unity", 1988)

"We can predict only those things we set up to be predictable, not what we encounter in the real world of living and reactive processes." (Bill Mollison, "Permaculture: A Designers' Manual", 1988)

"A model is generally more believable if it can predict what will happen, rather than 'explain' something that has already occurred." (James R Thompson, "Empirical Model Building", 1989)

"The ability of a scientific theory to be refuted is the key criterion that distinguishes science from metaphysics. If a theory cannot be refuted, if there is no observation that will disprove it, then nothing can prove it - it cannot predict anything, it is a worthless myth." (Eric Lerner, "The Big Bang Never Happened", 1991)

"[…] the simplest hypothesis proposed as an explanation of phenomena is more likely to be the true one than is any other available hypothesis, that its predictions are more likely to be true than those of any other available hypothesis, and that it is an ultimate a priori epistemic principle that simplicity is evidence for truth." (Richard Swinburne, "Simplicity as Evidence for Truth", 1997)

"The point is that scientific descriptions of phenomena in all of these cases do not fully capture reality they are models. This is not a shortcoming but a strength of science much of the scientist's art lies in figuring out what to include and what to exclude in a model, and this ability allows science to make useful predictions without getting bogged down by intractable details." (Philip Ball," The Self-Made Tapestry: Pattern Formation in Nature", 1998)

"We use mathematics and statistics to describe the diverse realms of randomness. From these descriptions, we attempt to glean insights into the workings of chance and to search for hidden causes. With such tools in hand, we seek patterns and relationships and propose predictions that help us make sense of the world." (Ivars Peterson, "The Jungles of Randomness: A Mathematical Safari", 1998)

"When a system is predictable, it is already performing as consistently as possible. Looking for assignable causes is a waste of time and effort. Instead, you can meaningfully work on making improvements and modifications to the process. When a system is unpredictable, it will be futile to try and improve or modify the process. Instead you must seek to identify the assignable causes which affect the system. The failure to distinguish between these two different courses of action is a major source of confusion and wasted effort in business today." (Donald J Wheeler, "Understanding Variation: The Key to Managing Chaos" 2nd Ed., 2000)

"When a process displays unpredictable behavior, you can most easily improve the process and process outcomes by identifying the assignable causes of unpredictable variation and removing their effects from your process." (Donald J Wheeler, "Understanding Variation: The Key to Managing Chaos" 2nd Ed., 2000)

"A smaller model with fewer covariates has two advantages: it might give better predictions than a big model and it is more parsimonious (simpler). Generally, as you add more variables to a regression, the bias of the predictions decreases and the variance increases. Too few covariates yields high bias; this called underfitting. Too many covariates yields high variance; this called overfitting. Good predictions result from achieving a good balance between bias and variance. […] fiding a good model involves trading of fit and complexity." (Larry A Wasserman, "All of Statistics: A concise course in statistical inference", 2004)

"The only way to look into the future is use theories since conclusive data is only available about the past." (Clayton Christensen et al, "Seeing What’s Next: Using the Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change", 2004)

"Most long-range forecasts of what is technically feasible in future time periods dramatically underestimate the power of future developments because they are based on what I call the 'intuitive linear' view of history rather than the 'historical exponential' view." (Ray Kurzweil, "The Singularity is Near", 2005)

"Complexity carries with it a lack of predictability different to that of chaotic systems, i.e. sensitivity to initial conditions. In the case of complexity, the lack of predictability is due to relevant interactions and novel information created by them." (Carlos Gershenson, "Understanding Complex Systems", 2011)

"The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future." (Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow", 2011)

"[...] things that seem hopelessly random and unpredictable when viewed in isolation often turn out to be lawful and predictable when viewed in aggregate." (Steven Strogatz, "The Joy of X: A Guided Tour of Mathematics, from One to Infinity", 2012)

"In common usage, prediction means to forecast a future event. In data science, prediction more generally means to estimate an unknown value. This value could be something in the future (in common usage, true prediction), but it could also be something in the present or in the past. Indeed, since data mining usually deals with historical data, models very often are built and tested using events from the past." (Foster Provost & Tom Fawcett, "Data Science for Business", 2013)

"In data science, a predictive model is a formula for estimating the unknown value of interest: the target. The formula could be mathematical, or it could be a logical statement such as a rule. Often it is a hybrid of the two." (Foster Provost & Tom Fawcett, "Data Science for Business", 2013)

"Under complexity science, the more interacting factors, the more unpredictable and irregular the outcome. To be succinct, the greater the complexity, the greater the unpredictability." (Lawrence K Samuels, "Defense of Chaos: The Chaology of Politics, Economics and Human Action", 2013)

"Without precise predictability, control is impotent and almost meaningless. In other words, the lesser the predictability, the harder the entity or system is to control, and vice versa. If our universe actually operated on linear causality, with no surprises, uncertainty, or abrupt changes, all future events would be absolutely predictable in a sort of waveless orderliness." (Lawrence K Samuels, "Defense of Chaos", 2013)

"The problem of complexity is at the heart of mankind’s inability to predict future events with any accuracy. Complexity science has demonstrated that the more factors found within a complex system, the more chances of unpredictable behavior. And without predictability, any meaningful control is nearly impossible. Obviously, this means that you cannot control what you cannot predict. The ability ever to predict long-term events is a pipedream. Mankind has little to do with changing climate; complexity does." (Lawrence K Samuels, "The Real Science Behind Changing Climate", LewRockwell.com, August 1, 2014) 

"Models are formal structures represented in mathematics and diagrams that help us to understand the world. Mastery of models improves your ability to reason, explain, design, communicate, act, predict, and explore." (Scott E Page, "The Model Thinker", 2018)
Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...