"In the discovery of hidden things and the investigation of hidden causes, stronger reasons are obtained from sure experiments and demonstrated arguments than from probable conjectures and the opinions of philosophical speculators of the common sort […]" (William Gilbert, "De Magnete", 1600)
"The art of discovering the causes of phenomena, or true hypothesis, is like the art of deciphering, in which an ingenious conjecture greatly shortens the road." (Gottfried W Leibniz, "New Essays Concerning Human Understanding", 1704 [published 1765])
"We define the art of conjecture, or stochastic art, as the art of evaluating as exactly as possible the probabilities of things, so that in our judgments and actions we can always base ourselves on what has been found to be the best, the most appropriate, the most certain, the best advised; this is the only object of the wisdom of the philosopher and the prudence of the statesman." (Jacob Bernoulli, "Ars Conjectandi", 1713)
"One of the most intimate of all associations in the human mind is that of cause and effect. They suggest one another with the utmost readiness upon all occasions; so that it is almost impossible to contemplate the one, without having some idea of, or forming some conjecture about the other." (Joseph Priestley, "The History and Present State of Electricity", 1767)
"On the other hand, if we add observation to observation, without attempting to draw no only certain conclusions, but also conjectural views from them, we offend against the very end for which only observations ought to be made." (Friedrich W Herschel, "On the Construction of the Heavens", Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Vol. LXXV, 1785)
"Conjecture may lead you to form opinions, but it cannot produce knowledge. Natural philosophy must be built upon the phenomena of nature discovered by observation and experiment." (George Adams, "Lectures on Natural and Experimental Philosophy" Vol. 1, 1794)
"Conjectures in philosophy are termed hypotheses or theories; and the investigation of an hypothesis founded on some slight probability, which accounts for many appearances in nature, has too often been considered as the highest attainment of a philosopher. If the hypothesis (sic) hangs well together, is embellished with a lively imagination, and serves to account for common appearances - it is considered by many, as having all the qualities that should recommend it to our belief, and all that ought to be required in a philosophical system." (George Adams, "Lectures on Natural and Experimental Philosophy" Vol. 1, 1794)
"We know the effects of many things, but the causes of few; experience, therefore, is a surer guide than imagination, and inquiry than conjecture." (Charles C Colton, "Lacon", 1820)
"Life is not the object of Science: we see a little, very little; And what is beyond we can only conjecture." (Samuel Johnson, "Causes Which Produce Diversity of Opinion", 1840)
"The philosophical study of nature rises above the requirements of mere delineation, and does not consist in the sterile accumulation of isolated facts. The active and inquiring spirit of man may therefore be occasionally permitted to escape from the present into the domain of the past, to conjecture that which cannot yet be clearly determined, and thus to revel amid the ancient and ever-recurring myths [...]." (Alexander von Humboldt, "Views of Nature: Or Contemplation of the Sublime Phenomena of Creation", 1850)
"The rules of scientific investigation always require us, when we enter the domains of conjecture, to adopt that hypothesis by which the greatest number of known facts and phenomena may be reconciled." (Matthew F Maury, "The Physical Geography of the Sea", 1855)
"There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact." (Samuel L Clemens [Mark Twain], "Life on the Mississippi", 1883)
"It is best to prove things by actual experiment; then you know; whereas if you depend on guessing and supposing and conjecturing, you will never get educated." (Samuel L Clemens [Mark Twain], "Eve’s Diary", 1906)
"Scientific theories are not the digest of observations, but they are inventions - conjectures boldly put forward for trial, to be eliminated if they clashed with observations; with observations which were rarely accidental, but as a rule undertaken with the definite intention of testing a theory by obtaining, if possible, a decisive refutation." (Karl R Popper, "Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge", 1963)
"We wish to see [...] the typical attitude of the scientist who uses mathematics to understand the world around us [...] In the solution of a problem [...] there are typically three phases. The first phase is entirely or almost entirely a matter of physics; the third, a matter of mathematics; and the intermediate phase, a transition from physics to mathematics. The first phase is the formulation of the physical hypothesis or conjecture; the second, its translation into equations; the third, the solution of the equations. Each phase calls for a different kind of work and demands a different attitude." (George Pólya, "Mathematical Methods in Science", 1963)
"We defined the art of conjecture, or stochastic art, as the art of evaluating as exactly as possible the probabilities of things, so that in our judgments and actions we can always base ourselves on what has been found to be the best, the most appropriate, the most certain, the best advised; this is the only object of the wisdom of the philosopher and the prudence of the statesman." (Bertrand de Jouvenel, "The Art of Conjecture", 1967)
"All advances of scientific understanding, at every level, begin with a speculative adventure, an imaginative preconception of what might be true.[...] [This] conjecture is then exposed to criticism to find out whether or not that imagined world is anything like the real one. Scientific reasoning is, therefore, at all levels an interaction between two episodes of thought - a dialogue between two voices, the one imaginative and the other critical [...]" (Sir Peter B Medawar, "The Hope of Progress", 1972)
"In moving from conjecture to experimental data, (D), experiments must be designed which make best use of the experimenter's current state of knowledge and which best illuminate his conjecture. In moving from data to modified conjecture, (A), data must be analyzed so as to accurately present information in a manner which is readily understood by the experimenter."
"Statistical methods are tools of scientific investigation. Scientific investigation is a controlled learning process in which various aspects of a problem are illuminated as the study proceeds. It can be thought of as a major iteration within which secondary iterations occur. The major iteration is that in which a tentative conjecture suggests an experiment, appropriate analysis of the data so generated leads to a modified conjecture, and this in turn leads to a new experiment, and so on." (George E P Box & George C Tjao, "Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis", 1973)
"[Great scientists] are men of bold ideas, but highly critical of their own ideas: they try to find whether their ideas are right by trying first to find whether they are not perhaps wrong. They work with bold conjectures and severe attempts at refuting their own conjectures." (Karl R Popper, "The Problem of Demarcation", 1974)
"The essential function of a hypothesis consists in the guidance it affords to new observations and experiments, by which our conjecture is either confirmed or refuted." (Ernst Mach, "Knowledge and Error: Sketches on the Psychology of Enquiry", 1976)
"The verb 'to theorize' is now conjugated as follows: 'I built a model; you formulated a hypothesis; he made a conjecture.'" (John M Ziman, "Reliable Knowledge", 1978)
"All advances of scientific understanding, at every level, begin with a speculative adventure, an imaginative preconception of what might be true - a preconception that always, and necessarily, goes a little way (sometimes a long way) beyond anything which we have logical or factual authority to believe in. It is the invention of a possible world, or of a tiny fraction of that world. The conjecture is then exposed to criticism to find out whether or not that imagined world is anything like the real one. Scientific reasoning is therefore at all levels an interaction between two episodes of thought - a dialogue between two voices, the one imaginative and the other critical; a dialogue, as I have put it, between the possible and the actual, between proposal and disposal, conjecture and criticism, between what might be true and what is in fact the case."
"The methods of science include controlled experiments, classification, pattern recognition, analysis, and deduction. In the humanities we apply analogy, metaphor, criticism, and (e)valuation. In design we devise alternatives, form patterns, synthesize, use conjecture, and model solutions." (Béla H Bánáthy, "Designing Social Systems in a Changing World", 1996)
"The everyday usage of 'theory' is for an idea whose outcome is as yet undetermined, a conjecture, or for an idea contrary to evidence. But scientists use the word in exactly the opposite sense. [In science] 'theory' [...] refers only to a collection of hypotheses and predictions that is amenable to experimental test, preferably one that has been successfully tested. It has everything to do with the facts." (Tony Rothman & George Sudarshan, "Doubt and Certainty: The Celebrated Academy: Debates on Science, Mysticism, Reality, in General on the Knowable and Unknowable", 1998)
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