"The Syllogism consists of propositions, propositions consist of words, words are symbols of notions. Therefore if the notions themselves (which is the root of the matter) are confused and over-hastily abstracted from the facts, there can be no firmness in the superstructure. Our only hope therefore lies in a true induction." (Francis Bacon, "The New Organon", 1620)
"The most important questions of life are, for the most part, really only problems of probability. Strictly speaking one may even say that nearly all our knowledge is problematical; and in the small number of things which we are able to know with certainty, even in the mathematical sciences themselves, induction and analogy, the principal means for discovering truth, are based on probabilities, so that the entire system of human knowledge is connected with this theory." (Pierre-Simon Laplace, "Theorie Analytique des Probabilités", 1812)
"Induction, analogy, hypotheses founded upon facts and rectified continually by new observations, a happy tact given by nature and strengthened by numerous comparisons of its indications with experience, such are the principal means for arriving at truth." (Pierre-Simon Laplace, "A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities", 1814)
"One may even say, strictly speaking, that almost all our knowledge is only probable; and in the small number of things that we are able to know with certainty, in the mathematical sciences themselves, the principal means of arriving at the truth - induction and analogy - are based on probabilities, so that the whole system of human knowledge is tied up with the theory set out in this essay." (Pierre-Simon Laplace, "Philosophical Essay on Probabilities", 1814)
"It is characteristic of higher arithmetic that many of its most beautiful theorems can be discovered by induction with the greatest of ease but have proofs that lie anywhere but near at hand and are often found only after many fruitless investigations with the aid of deep analysis and lucky combinations." (Carl Friedrich Gauss, 1817)
"Such is the tendency of the human mind to speculation, that on the least idea of an analogy between a few phenomena, it leaps forward, as it were, to a cause or law, to the temporary neglect of all the rest; so that, in fact, almost all our principal inductions must be regarded as a series of ascents and descents, and of conclusions from a few cases, verified by trial on many." (Sir John Herschel, "A Preliminary Discourse on the Study of Natural Philosophy" , 1830)
"The Laws of Nature are merely truths or generalized facts, in regard to matter, derived by induction from experience, observation, arid experiment. The laws of mathematical science are generalized truths derived from the consideration of Number and Space." (Charles Davies, "The Logic and Utility of Mathematics", 1850)
"The principle of deduction is, that things which agree with the same thing agree with one another. The principle of induction is, that in the same circumstances and in the same substances, from the same causes the same effects will follow. The mathematical and metaphysical sciences are founded on deduction; the physical sciences rest on induction." (William Fleming, "A vocabulary of the philosophical sciences", 1857)
"Mathematics is a science of Observation, dealing with reals, precisely as all other sciences deal with reals. It would be easy to show that its Method is the same: that, like other sciences, having observed or discovered properties, which it classifies, generalises, co-ordinates and subordinates, it proceeds to extend discoveries by means of Hypothesis, Induction, Experiment and Deduction." (George H Lewes, "Problems of Life and Mind: The Method of Science and its Application", 1874)
"I am convinced that it is impossible to expound the methods of induction in a sound manner, without resting them on the theory of probability. Perfect knowledge alone can give certainty, and in nature perfect knowledge would be infinite knowledge, which is clearly beyond our capacities. We have, therefore, to content ourselves with partial knowledge, - knowledge mingled with ignorance, producing doubt." (William S Jevons, "The Principles of Science: A Treatise on Logic and Scientific Method", 1887)
"There is as great a distinction between mathematics and the mathematical sciences as there is between induction and the inductive sciences. Practically, few cases of induction do not involve, to a greater or less extent, deductions; so few mathematical processes do not involve some strictly logical procedure." (Charles C Everett, "The Science of Thought", 1890)
"In every science, after having analysed the ideas, expressing the more complicated by means of the more simple, one finds a certain number that cannot be reduced among them, and that one can define no further. These are the primitive ideas of the science; it is necessary to acquire them through experience, or through induction; it is impossible to explain them by deduction." (Giuseppe Peano, "Notations de Logique Mathématique", 1894)
"If men of science owe anything to us, we may learn much from them that is essential. For they can show how to test proof, how to secure fulness and soundness in induction, how to restrain and to employ with safety hypothesis and analogy." (Lord John Acton, [Lecture] "The Study of History", 1895)
"A system is a set of objects compromising all that stands to one another in a group of connected relations. Induction according to ordinary logic rises from the contemplation of a sample of a class to that of a whole class; but according to the logic of relatives it rises from the contemplation of a fragment of a system to the envisagement of the complete system." (Charles S Peirce, "Cambridge Lectures on Reasoning and the Logic of Things: Detached Ideas on Vitally Important Topics", 1898)
"Induction applied to the physical sciences is always uncertain, because it rests on the belief in a general order of the universe, an order outside of us." (Henri Poincaré, "Science and Hypothesis", 1901)
"We shall call this universal organizational science the 'Tektology'. The literal translation of this word from the Greek is 'the theory of construction'. 'Construction' is the most generaI and suitable synonym for the modern concept of 'organization'. [...] The aim of tektology is to systematize organizational experience; this science is clearly empirical and should draw its conclusions by way of induction." (Alexander Bogdanov, "Tektology: The Universal Organizational Science" Vol. I, 1913)
"We know that the probability of well-established induction is great, but, when we are asked to name its degree we cannot. Common sense tells us that some inductive arguments are stronger than others, and that some are very strong. But how much stronger or how strong we cannot express." (John M Keynes, "A Treatise on Probability", 1921)
"The question of the origin of the hypothesis belongs to a domain in which no very general rules can be given; experiment, analogy and constructive intuition play their part here. But once the correct hypothesis is formulated, the principle of mathematical induction is often sufficient to provide the proof." (Richard Courant & Herbert Robbins, "What Is Mathematics?: An Elementary Approach to Ideas and Methods" , 1941)
"To say that observations of the past are certain, whereas predictions are merely probable, is not the ultimate answer to the question of induction; it is only a sort of intermediate answer, which is incomplete unless a theory of probability is developed that explains what we should mean by ‘probable’ and on what ground we can assert probabilities." (Hans Reichenbach, "The Rise of Scientific Philosophy", 1951)
"The result of the mathematician's creative work is demonstrative reasoning, a proof; but the proof is discovered by plausible reasoning, by guessing. If the learning of mathematics reflects to any degree the invention of mathematics, it must have a place for guessing, for plausible inference." (George Pólya, "Induction and Analogy in Mathematics", 1954)
"[…] the human reason discovers new relations between things not by deduction, but by that unpredictable blend of speculation and insight […] induction, which - like other forms of imagination - cannot be formalized." (Jacob Bronowski, "The Reach of Imagination", 1967)
"Mathematical induction […] is an entirely different procedure. Although it, too, leaps from the knowledge of particular cases to knowledge about an infinite sequence of cases, the leap is purely deductive. It is as certain as any proof in mathematics, and an indispensable tool in almost every branch of mathematics." (Martin Gardner, "Aha! Insight", 1978)
"The word ‘induction’ has two essentially different meanings. Scientific induction is a process by which scientists make observations of particular cases, such as noticing that some crows are black, then leap to the universal conclusion that all crows are black. The conclusion is never certain. There is always the possibility that at least one unobserved crow is not black." (Martin Gardner, "Aha! Insight", 1978)
"Science, since people must do it, is a socially embedded activity. It progresses by hunch, vision, and intuition. Much of its change through time does not record a closer approach to absolute truth, but the alteration of cultural contexts that influence it so strongly. Facts are not pure and unsullied bits of information; culture also influences what we see and how we see it. Theories, moreover, are not inexorable inductions from facts. The most creative theories are often imaginative visions imposed upon facts; the source of imagination is also strongly cultural." (Stephen J Gould, "The Mismeasure of Man", 1980)
"All great theories are expansive, and all notions so rich in scope and implication are underpinned by visions about the nature of things. You may call these visions ‘philosophy’, or ‘metaphor’, or ‘organizing principle’, but one thing they are surely not - they are not simple inductions from observed facts of the natural world." (Stephen J Gould, "Time’s Arrow, Time’s Cycle", 1987)
"Model building is the art of selecting those aspects of a process that are relevant to the question being asked. As with any art, this selection is guided by taste, elegance, and metaphor; it is a matter of induction, rather than deduction. High science depends on this art." (John H Holland," Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity", 1995)
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