27 December 2022

Mind: On Rational Behavior (Quotes)

"To the rational being only the irrational is unendurable, but the rational is endurable." (Epictetus, "Discourses", cca. 100 AD)

"To him who looks upon the world rationally, the world in its turn presents a rational aspect. The relation is mutual." (Georg W F Hegel, "Lectures on the Philosophy of History", 1832)

"As a 'rational' being, he now places his behavior under the control of abstractions. He will no longer tolerate being carried away by sudden impressions, by intuitions." (Friedrich Nietzsche, "On Truth and Lie in an Extra-Moral Sense", 1873)

"All rational action is economic. All economic activity is rational action. All rational action is in the first place individual action. Only the individual thinks. Only the individual reasons. Only the individual acts." (Ludwig von Mises, "Socialism", 1922)

"In the process of decision those alternatives are chosen which are considered to be appropriate means of reaching desired ends. Ends themselves, however, are often merely instrumental to more final objectives. We are thus led to the conception of a series, or hierarchy, of ends. Rationality has to do with the construction of means-ends chains of this kind." (Herbert A Simon, "Administrative Behavior", 1947)

"It is impossible for the behavior of a single, isolated individual to reach a high degree of rationality. The number of alternatives he must explore is so great, the information he would need to evaluate them so vast that even an approximation to objective rationality is hard to conceive. Individual choice takes place in rationality is hard to conceive. [...] Actual behavior falls short in at least three ways, of objective rationality." (Herbert A Simon, "Administrative Behavior", 1947)

"Rationality requires a choice among all possible alternative behaviors. In actual behavior, only a very few of all these possible alternatives come to mind." (Herbert A Simon, "Administrative Behavior", 1947)

"Rationality requires a complete knowledge and anticipation of the consequences that will follow on each choice. In fact, knowledge of consequences is always fragmentary." (Herbert A Simon, "Administrative Behavior", 1947)

"Roughly speaking, rationality is concerned with the selection of preferred behavior alternatives in terms of some system of values, whereby the consequences of behavior can be evaluated." (Herbert A Simon, "Administrative Behavior", 1947)

"The principle of bounded rationality [is] the capacity of the human mind for formulating and solving complex problems is very small compared with the size of the problems whose solution is required for objectively rational behavior in the real world - or even for a reasonable approximation to such objective rationality." (Herbert A Simon, "Administrative Behavior", 1947)

"More than ambition, more than ability, it is rules that limit contribution; rules are the lowest common denominator of human behavior. They are a substitute for rational thought." (Hyman G Rickover, [address] 1954)

"Unlike pure theorists, we shall not assume at the outset that rational behavior exists or that rational behavior constitutes the topic of economic analysis. We shall study economic behavior as we find it. In describing and classifying different reactions, as well as the circumstances that elicit them, we shall raise the question whether and in what sense certain reactions may be called rational. After having answered that question and thus defined our terms, we shall study the fundamental problem: Under what conditions do more and under what conditions do less rational forms of behavior occur?" (George Katona, "Psychological Analysis of Economic Behavior", 1951)

"Broadly stated, the task is to replace the global rationality of economic man with a kind of rational behavior that is compatible with the access to information and the computational capacities that are actually possessed by organisms, including man, in the kinds of environments in which such organisms exist." (Herbert A Simon, "A behavioral model of rational choice", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 69 (1), 1955)

"Because of the extended time image and the extended relationship images, man is capable of ‘rational behavior,’ that is to say, his response is not to an immediate stimulus but to an image of the future filtered through an elaborate value system.  His image contains not only what is, but what might be." (Kenneth E Boulding, "The Image: Knowledge in life and society", 1956)

"The first consequence of the principle of bounded rationality is that the intended rationality of an actor requires him to construct a simplified model of the real situation in order to deal with it. He behaves rationally with respect to this model, and such behavior is not even approximately optimal with respect to the real world. To predict his behavior we must understand the way in which this simplified model is constructed, and its construction will certainly be related to his psychological properties as a perceiving, thinking, and learning animal." (Herbert A Simon, "Models of Man", 1957)

"The outcome of a non-constant-sum game may be dictated by the individual rationality of the respective players without satisfying a criterion of collective rationality." (Anatol Rapoport, "Game Theory as a Theory of Conflict Resolution", 1974)

"The tendency to be rational is the consistent and hence predictable element in human behavior." (David Friedman, "Price Theory: An Intermediate Text", 1986)

"Even though principles of rationality seem as often violated as followed, we still cling to the notion that human thought should be rational, logical, and orderly. Much of law is based upon the concept of rational thought and behavior. Much of economic theory is based upon the model of the rational human who attempts to optimize personal benefit, utility, or comfort. Many scientists who study artificial intelligence use the mathematics of formal logic - the predicate calculus - as their major tool to simulate thought. [...] Human thought is not like logic; it is fundamentally different in kind and spirit. The difference is neither worse nor better. But it is the difference that leads to creative discovery and to great robustness of behavior." (Donald Norman, "The Design of Everyday Things", 1988)

"Human rational behavior [...] is shaped by the scissors whose two blades are the structure of the task environment and the computational capabilities of the actor. (Herbert A Simon, "Invariants of Human Behavior", Annual Review of Psychology 41(1), 1990)

"The Minimax Theorem applies to games in which there are just two players and for which the total payoff to both parties is zero, regardless of what actions the players choose. The advantage of these two properties is that with two players whose interests are directly opposed we have a game of pure competition, which allows us to define a clear-cut mathematical notion of rational behavior that leads to a single, unambiguous rule as to how each player should behave." (John L Casti, "Five Golden Rules", 1995)

"Game theory is a theory of strategic interaction. That is to say, it is a theory of rational behavior in social situations in which each player has to choose his moves on the basis of what he thinks the other players' countermoves are likely to be." (John Harsanyi, "Games with Incomplete Information", The American Economic Review Vol. 85 (3), 1997)

"Behavior is imitated, then abstracted into play, formalized into drama and story, crystallized into myth and codified into religion—and only then criticized in philosophy, and provided, post-hoc, with rational underpinnings." (Jordan Peterson, "Maps of Meaning", 1999)

"The assumption of perfectly rational, maximizing behavior won out until recently in the art of modeling, not because it often reflects reality, but because it was useful." (Didier Sornette, "Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Systems", 2003)

"A person's behavior is rational if it is in his best interests, given his information." (Robert Aumann, "War and Peace", 2005)

"Rational maximization should not be confused with conscious calculation. Economics is not a theory about consciousness. Behavior is rational when it conforms to the model of rational choice, whatever the state of mind of the chooser." (Richard Posner, "Economic Analysis of Law" 7th ed., 2007)

"Acting in conformity with reason, in the singular, and acting for good reasons, in the plural, are two different things insofar as reason is objective, whereas reasons are subjective. From an external point of view, we can evaluate a policy as being in conformity with reason or not. From an internal point of view, one can evaluate an action as being rational or not. From this difference it follows that only rationality can be used for explanatory ends. It is only insofar as the agent has made the demands of reason his own that the latter may give rise to, and possibly explain, specific behaviors. The assessment of the actor and that of the observer need not coincide." (Jon Elster, "Reason and Rationality", 2009)

"Game theory postulates rational behavior for each participant. Each player is conscious of the rules and behaves in accordance with them, each player has sufficient knowledge of the situation in which he or she is involved to be able to evaluate what the best option is when it comes to taking action (a move), and each player takes into account the decisions that might be made by other participants and their repercussions with respect to his or her own decision. Game theory about zero-sum games with two participants is relevant for chess. In this type of situation, each action that is favorable to one participant (player) is proportionally unfavorable for the opponent. Thus, the gain of one represents the loss of the other." (Diego Rasskin-Gutman, "Chess Metaphors: Artificial Intelligence and the Human Mind", 2009)

23 December 2022

Systems Thinking: On Experience (Quotes)

"Every change of one of the factors of an equilibrium occasions a rearrangement of the system in such a direction that the factor in question experiences a change in a sense opposite to the original change." (Henri L Le Chatelier, "Recherches Experimentales et Theoriques sur les Equilibres Chimiques" ["Experimental and Theoretical Research on Chemical Equilibria"], Annales des Mines 8, 1888)

"No system would have ever been framed if people had been simply interested in knowing what is true, whatever it may be. What produces systems is the interest in maintaining against all comers that some favourite or inherited idea of ours is sufficient and right. A system may contain an account of many things which, in detail, are true enough; but as a system, covering infinite possibilities that neither our experience nor our logic can prejudge, it must be a work of imagination and a piece of human soliloquy: It may be expressive of human experience, it may be poetical; but how should anyone who really coveted truth suppose that it was true?" (George Santayana, "The Genteel Tradition in American Philosophy", 1911)

"A ‘representation’ of a system is not a knowledge of this system, but is this system itself becoming an object, an element of experience." (Florian Znaniecki, "Cultural reality?", 1919)

"[…] reality is a system, completely ordered and fully intelligible, with which thought in its advance is more and more identifying itself. We may look at the growth of knowledge […] as an attempt by our mind to return to union with things as they are in their ordered wholeness. […] and if we take this view, our notion of truth is marked out for us. Truth is the approximation of thought to reality […] Its measure is the distance thought has travelled […] toward that intelligible system […] The degree of truth of a particular proposition is to be judged in the first instance by its coherence with experience as a whole, ultimately by its coherence with that further whole, all comprehensive and fully articulated, in which thought can come to rest." (Brand Blanshard, "The Nature of Thought" Vol. II, 1939)

"A […] difference between most system-building in the social sciences and systems of thought and classification of the natural sciences is to be seen in their evolution. In the natural sciences both theories and descriptive systems grow by adaptation to the increasing knowledge and experience of the scientists. In the social sciences, systems often issue fully formed from the mind of one man. Then they may be much discussed if they attract attention, but progressive adaptive modification as a result of the concerted efforts of great numbers of men is rare." (Lawrence J Henderson, "The Study of Man", 1941)

"The most fundamental concept in cybernetics is that of ‘difference’, either that two things are recognisably different or that one thing has changed with time. Its range of application need not be described now, for the subsequent chapters will illustrate the range abundantly. All the changes that may occur with time are naturally included, for when plants grow and planets age and machines move some change from one state to another is implicit. So our first task will be to develop this concept of 'change', not only making it more precise but making it richer, converting it to a form that experience has shown to be necessary if significant developments are to be made." (W Ross Ashby, "An Introduction to Cybernetics", 1956)

"Knowing reality means constructing systems of transformations that correspond, more or less adequately, to reality. They are more or less isomorphic to transformations of reality. The transformational structures of which knowledge consists are not copies of the transformations in reality; they are simply possible isomorphic models among which experience can enable us to choose. Knowledge, then, is a system of transformations that become progressively adequate." (Jean Piaget, "Genetic Epistemology", 1968)

"Catastrophes are often stimulated by the failure to feel the emergence of a domain, and so what cannot be felt in the imagination is experienced as embodied sensation in the catastrophe." (William I Thompson, "Gaia, a Way of Knowing: Political Implications of the New Biology", 1987)

"Networks constitute the new social morphology of our societies, and the diffusion of networking logic substantially modifies the operation and outcomes in processes of production, experience, power, and culture. While the networking form of social organization has existed in other times and spaces, the new information technology paradigm provides the material basis for its pervasive expansion throughout the entire social structure." (Manuel Castells, "The Rise of the Network Society", 1996)

"Something of the previous state, however, survives every change. This is called in the language of cybernetics (which took it form the language of machines) feedback, the advantages of learning from experience and of having developed reflexes." (Guy Davenport, "The Geography of the Imagination: Forty Essays", 1997)

"Randomness is the very stuff of life, looming large in our everyday experience. […] The fascination of randomness is that it is pervasive, providing the surprising coincidences, bizarre luck, and unexpected twists that color our perception of everyday events." (Edward Beltrami, "What is Random?: Chaos and Order in Mathematics and Life", 1999)

"Faced with the overwhelming complexity of the real world, time pressure, and limited cognitive capabilities, we are forced to fall back on rote procedures, habits, rules of thumb, and simple mental models to make decisions. Though we sometimes strive to make the best decisions we can, bounded rationality means we often systematically fall short, limiting our ability to learn from experience." (John D Sterman, "Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world", 2000)

"The self-reinforcing feedback between expectations and perceptions has been repeatedly demonstrated […]. Sometimes the positive feedback assists learning by sharpening our ability to perceive features of the environment, as when an experienced naturalist identifies a bird in a distant bush where the novice sees only a tangled thicket. Often, however, the mutual feedback of expectations and perception blinds us to the anomalies that might challenge our mental models and lead to deep insight." (John D Sterman, "Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world", 2000)

"Ecological rationality uses reason – rational reconstruction – to examine the behavior of individuals based on their experience and folk knowledge, who are ‘naïve’ in their ability to apply constructivist tools to the decisions they make; to understand the emergent order in human cultures; to discover the possible intelligence embodied in the rules, norms and institutions of our cultural and biological heritage that are created from human interactions but not by deliberate human design. People follow rules without being able to articulate them, but they can be discovered." (Vernon L Smith, "Constructivist and ecological rationality in economics", 2002)

"When we look at the world around us, we find that we are not thrown into chaos and randomness but are part of a great order, a grand symphony of life. Every molecule in our body was once a part of previous bodies-living or nonliving-and will be a part of future bodies. In this sense, our body will not die but will live on, again and again, because life lives on. We share not only life's molecules but also its basic principles of organization with the rest of the living world. Arid since our mind, too, is embodied, our concepts and metaphors are embedded in the web of life together with our bodies and brains. We belong to the universe, we are at home in it, and this experience of belonging can make our lives profoundly meaningful." (Fritjof Capra, "The Hidden Connections", 2002)

"To remedy chaotic situations requires a chaotic approach, one that is non-linear, constantly morphing, and continually sharpening its competitive edge with recurring feedback loops that build upon past experiences and lessons learned. Improvement cannot be sustained without reflection. Chaos arises from myriad sources that stem from two origins: internal chaos rising within you, and external chaos being imposed upon you by the environment. The result of this push/pull effect is the disequilibrium [...]." (Jeff Boss, "Navigating Chaos: How to Find Certainty in Uncertain Situations", 2015)




Mind: On Experience (Quotes)

"Reasoning draws a conclusion and makes us grant the conclusion, but does not make the conclusion certain, nor does it remove doubt so that the mind may rest on the intuition of truth, unless the mind discovers it by the path of experience." (Roger Bacon, "Opus Majus", cca. 1267)

"[…] it is from long experience chiefly that we are to expect the most certain rules of practice, yet it is withal to be remembered, that observations, and to put us upon the most probable means of improving any art, is to get the best insight we can into the nature and properties of those things which we are desirous to cultivate and improve." (Stephen Hales, "Vegetable Staticks", 1727)

"Men always fool themselves when they give up experience for systems born of the imagination. Man is the work of nature, he exists in nature, he is subject to its laws, he can not break free, he can not leave even in thought; it is in vain that his spirit wants to soar beyond the bounds of the visible world, he is always forced to return." (Paul-Henri T d’ Holbach, "Système de la Nature", 1770)

"It falls into this difficulty without any fault of its own. It begins with principles, which cannot be dispensed with in the field of experience, and the truth and sufficiency of which are, at the same time, insured by experience. With these principles it rises, in obedience to the laws of its own nature, to ever higher and more remote conditions. But it quickly discovers that, in this way, its labours must remain ever incomplete, because new questions never cease to present themselves; and thus it finds itself compelled to have recourse to principles which transcend the region of experience, while they are regarded by common sense without distrust. It thus falls into confusion and contradictions, from which it conjectures the presence of latent errors, which, however, it is unable to discover, because the principles it employs, transcending the limits of experience, cannot be tested by that criterion. The arena of these endless contests is called Metaphysic." (Immanuel Kant, "The Critique of Pure Reason", 1781)

"In order to supply the defects of experience, we will have recourse to the probable conjectures of analogy, conclusions which we will bequeath to our posterity to be ascertained by new observations, which, if we augur rightly, will serve to establish our theory and to carry it gradually nearer to absolute certainty." (Johann H Lambert, "The System of the World", 1800)

"We construct concepts when we represent them in intuition a priori, without experience, or when we represent in intuition  the object which corresponds to our concept of it. - The mathematician can never apply his reason to mere concepts, nor the philosopher to the construction of concepts. - In mathematics  the reason is employed in concreto, however, the intuition is not  empirical, but the object of contemplation is something a priori." (Immanuel Kant, "Logic", 1800)

"Induction, analogy, hypotheses founded upon facts and rectified continually by new observations, a happy tact given by nature and strengthened by numerous comparisons of its indications with experience, such are the principal means for arriving at truth." (Pierre-Simon Laplace, "A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities", 1814)

"Theories are always very thin and unsubstantial; experience only is tangible." (Hosea Ballou, "Universalist Expositor", 1831)

"It is frequently analogy which guides the experienced to what are called good guesses." (Francis W Newman, "Lectures on Logic", 1838)

"A human being, what is a human being? Everything and nothing. Through the power of thought it can mirror everything it experiences. Through memory and knowledge it becomes a microcosm, carrying the world within itself. A mirror of things, a mirror of facts. Each human being becomes a little universe within the universe!" (Guy de Maupassant, [in "The Journal of a Madman"] 1851)

"By reducing imagination to the power of forming images, and by insisting that no image can be formed except out of the elements furnished by experience, I do not mean to confound imagination with memory; indeed, the frequent occurrence of great strength of memory with comparative feebleness of imagination, would suffice to warn us against such a conclusion." (George H Lewes, "The Principles of Success in Literature", 1865)

"To imagine - to form an image - we must have the numerous relations of things present to the mind, and see the objects in their actual order. In this we are of course greatly aided by the mass of organised experience, which allows us rapidly to estimate the relations of gravity or affinity just as we remember that fire burns and that heated bodies expand. But be the aid great or small, and the result victorious or disastrous, the imaginative process is always the same." (George H Lewes, "The Principles of Success in Literature", 1865)

"All experience attests the strength of the tendency to mistake mental abstractions, even negative ones, for substantive realities; and the Permanent Possibilities of sensation which experience guarantees arc so extremely unlike in many of their properties to actual sensations, that since we are capable of imagining something which transcends sensations, there is a great natural probability that we should suppose these to be it." (Hippolyte Taine, "On intelligence", 1871)

"Every word instantly becomes a concept precisely insofar as it is not supposed to serve as a reminder of the unique and entirely individual original experience to which it owes its origin; but rather, a word becomes a concept insofar as it simultaneously has to fit countless more or less similar cases - which means, purely and simply, cases which are never equal and thus altogether unequal. Every concept arises from the equation of unequal things. Just as it is certain that one leaf is never totally the same as another, so it is certain that the concept 'leaf' is formed by arbitrarily discarding these individual differences and by forgetting the distinguishing aspects." (Friedrich Nietzsche, "On Truth and Lie in an Extra-Moral Sense", 1873)

"Ideas are substitutions which require a secondary process when what is symbolized by them is translated into the images and experiences it replaces; and this secondary process is frequently not performed at all, generally only performed to a very small extent. Let anyone closely examine what has passed in his mind when he has constructed a chain of reasoning, and he will be surprised at the fewness and faintness of the images which have accompanied the ideas." (George H Lewes "Problems of Life and Mind", 1873)

"The man who is guided by concepts and abstractions only succeeds by such means in warding off misfortune, without ever gaining any happiness for himself from these abstractions. And while he aims for the greatest possible freedom from pain, the intuitive man, standing in the midst of a culture, already reaps from his intuition a harvest of continually inflowing illumination, cheer, and redemption - in addition to obtaining a defense against misfortune. To be sure, he suffers more intensely, when he suffers; he even suffers more frequently, since he does not understand how to learn from experience and keeps falling over and over again into the same ditch." (Friedrich Nietzsche," On Truth and Lie in an Extra-Moral Sense", 1873)

"Human existence is girt round with mystery: the narrow region of our experience is a small island in the midst of a boundless sea. To add to the mystery, the domain of our earthly existence is not only an island of infinite space, but also in infinite time. The past and the future are alike shrouded from us: we neither know the origin of anything which is, nor its final destination." (John S Mill, "Nature, The Utility of Religion and Theism", 1874)

"Summing up, then, it would seem as if the mind of the great discoverer must combine contradictory attributes. He must be fertile in theories and hypotheses, and yet full of facts and precise results of experience. He must entertain the feeblest analogies, and the merest guesses at truth, and yet he must hold them as worthless till they are verified in experiment. When there are any grounds of probability he must hold tenaciously to an old opinion, and yet he must be prepared at any moment to relinquish it when a clearly contradictory fact is encountered." (William S Jevons, "The Principles of Science: A Treatise on Logic and Scientific Method", 1874)

"Incidentally, naive intuition, which is in large part an inherited talent, emerges unconsciously from the in-depth study of this or that field of science. The word ‘Anschauung’ has not perhaps been suitably chosen. I would like to include here the motoric sensation with which an engineer assesses the distribution of forces in something he is designing, and even that vague feeling possessed by the experienced number cruncher about the convergence of infinite processes with which he is confronted. I am saying that, in its fields of application, mathematical intuition understood in this way rushes ahead of logical thinking and in each moment has a wider scope than the latter " (Felix Klein, "Über Arithmetisierung der Mathematik", Zeitschrift für mathematischen und naturwissen-schaftlichen Unterricht 27, 1896)

"The mind of man, learning consciously and unconsciously lessons of experience, gradually constructs a mental image of its surroundings - as the mariner draws a chart of strange coasts to guide him in future voyages, and to enable those that follow after him to sail the same seas with ease and safety." (William C Dampier, "The Recent Development of Physical Science", 1904)

"Reduced to their most pregnant difference, empiricism means the habit of explaining wholes by parts, and rationalism means the habit of explaining parts by wholes. Rationalism thus preserves affinities with monism, since wholeness goes with union, while empiricism inclines to pluralistic views. No philosophy can ever be anything but a summary sketch, a picture of the world in abridgment, a foreshortened bird's-eye view of the perspective of events. And the first thing to notice is this, that the only material we have at our disposal for making a picture of the whole world is supplied by the various portions of that world of which we have already had experience. We can invent no new forms of conception, applicable to the whole exclusively, and not suggested originally by the parts." (William James, "A Pluralistic Universe", 1908)

"In the presence of certain objects of thought or of certain affirmations the child, in virtue of previous experiences, adopts a certain way of reacting and thinking which is always the same, and which might be called a schema of reasoning. Such schemas are the functional equivalents of general propositions, but since the child is not conscious of these schemas before discussion and a desire for proof have laid them bare and at the same time changed their character, they cannot be said to constitute implicit general propositions. They simply constitute certain unconscious tendencies which live their own life but are submitted to no general systematization and consequently lead to no logical exactitude. To put it in another way, they form a logic of action but not yet a logic of thought." (Jean Piaget, "Judgement and Reasoning in the Child", 1928)

"Abstraction is the detection of a common quality in the characteristics of a number of diverse observations […] A hypothesis serves the same purpose, but in a different way. It relates apparently diverse experiences, not by directly detecting a common quality in the experiences themselves, but by inventing a fictitious substance or process or idea, in terms of which the experience can be expressed. A hypothesis, in brief, correlates observations by adding something to them, while abstraction achieves the same end by subtracting something." (Herbert Dingle, Science and Human Experience, 1931)

"'Schema' refers to an active organisation of past reactions, or of past experiences, which must always be supposed to be operating in any well-adapted organic response. That is, whenever there is any order or regularity of behavior, a particular response is possible only because it is related to other similar responses which have been serially organised, yet which operate, not simply as individual members coming one after another, but as a unitary mass. Determination by schemata is the most fundamental of all the ways in which we can be influenced by reactions and experiences which occurred some time in the past. All incoming impulses of a certain kind, or mode, go together to build up an active, organised setting: visual, auditory, various types of cutaneous impulses and the like, at a relatively low level; all the experiences connected by a common interest: in sport, in literature, history, art, science, philosophy, and so on, on a higher level." (Frederic C Bartlett, "Remembering: A study in experimental and social psychology", 1932)

"Concepts can only acquire content when they are connected, however indirectly, with sensible experience. But no logical investigation can reveal this connection; it can only be experienced. […] this connection […] determines the cognitive value of systems of concepts." (Albert Einstein, "The Problem of Space, Ether, and the Field in Physics", Mein Weltbild, 1934)

"[…] reality is a system, completely ordered and fully intelligible, with which thought in its advance is more and more identifying itself. We may look at the growth of knowledge […] as an attempt by our mind to return to union with things as they are in their ordered wholeness. […] and if we take this view, our notion of truth is marked out for us. Truth is the approximation of thought to reality […] Its measure is the distance thought has travelled […] toward that intelligible system […] The degree of truth of a particular proposition is to be judged in the first instance by its coherence with experience as a whole, ultimately by its coherence with that further whole, all comprehensive and fully articulated, in which thought can come to rest." (Brand Blanshard, "The Nature of Thought" Vol. II, 1939)

"Thus we do not try to prove the existence of the external world – we discover it, because the fundamental power of words or other symbols to represent events [...] permits us to put forward hypotheses and test their truth by reference to experience. [..] A particular type of symbolism may always fail in a particular case, as Euclidean geometry apparently fails to represent stellar space; but if all types of symbolism always failed, we should be unable to recognise any objects or exist at all." (Kenneth Craik, "The Nature of Explanation", 1943)

"A model, like a novel, may resonate with nature, but it is not a ‘real’ thing. Like a novel, a model may be convincing - it may ‘ring true’ if it is consistent with our experience of the natural world. But just as we may wonder how much the characters in a novel are drawn from real life and how much is artifice, we might ask the same of a model: How much is based on observation and measurement of accessible phenomena, how much is convenience? Fundamentally, the reason for modeling is a lack of full access, either in time or space, to the phenomena of interest." (Kenneth Belitz, Science, Vol. 263, 1944)

"The complete use of pure reason brings us finally from physical to metaphysical knowledge. But the concepts of metaphysical knowledge do not in themselves fully satisfy the demand of our integral being. They are indeed entirely satisfactory to the pure reason itself, because they are the very stuff of its own existence. But our nature sees things through two eyes always, for it views them doubly as idea and as fact and therefore every concept is incomplete for us and to a part of our nature almost unreal until it becomes an experience." (Sri Aurobindo, "The Life Divine", 1944)

"Man tries to make for himself in the fashion that suits him best a simplified and intelligible picture of the world; he then tries to some extent to substitute this cosmos of his for the world of experience, and thus to overcome it. This is what the painter, the poet, the speculative philosopher, and the natural scientist do, each in his own way." (Albert Einstein, "The World as I See It", 1949)

"Every bit of knowledge we gain and every conclusion we draw about the universe or about any part or feature of it depends finally upon some observation or measurement. Mankind has had again and again the humiliating experience of trusting to intuitive, apparently logical conclusions without observations, and has seen Nature sail by in her radiant chariot of gold in an entirely different direction." (Oliver J Lee, "Measuring Our Universe: From the Inner Atom to Outer Space", 1950)

"In speaking here of ‘comprehensibility’, the expression is used in its most modest sense. It implies: the production being produced by the creation of general concepts, relations between these concepts and sense experience. It is in this sense that the world of our sense experiences is comprehensible. The fact that it is comprehensible is a miracle." (Albert Einstein, "Out of My Later Years", 1950)

"As our mental eye penetrates into smaller and smaller distances and shorter and shorter times, we find nature behaving so entirely differently from what we observe in visible and palpable bodies of our surroundings that no model shaped after our large-scale experiences can ever be ‘true’. A complete satisfactory model of this type is not only practically inaccessible, but not even thinkable. Or, to be precise, we can, of course, think of it, but however we think it, it is wrong; not perhaps quite as meaningless as a ‘triangular circle’, but more so than a ‘winged lion’." (Erwin Schrödinger, "Science and Humanism", 1952)

"As an empiricist I continue to think of the conceptual scheme of science as a tool, ultimately, for predicting future experience in the light of past experience. Physical objects are conceptually imported into the situation as convenient intermediaries - not by definition in terms of experience, but simply as irreducible posits comparable, epistemologically, to the gods of Homer." (Willard v O Quine, "From a Logical Point of View", 1953)

"Our acceptance of an ontology is, I think, similar in principle to our acceptance of a scientific theory, say a system of physics; we adopt, at least insofar as we are reasonable, the simplest conceptual scheme into which the disordered fragments of raw experience can be fitted and arranged." (Willard van Orman Quine, "From a Logical Point of View", 1953)

"[a pictorial representation] is not a faithful record of a visual experience, but the faithful construction of a relational model […] Such a model can be constructed to any required degree of accuracy . What is decisive here is clearly the word 'required'. The form of a representation cannot be divorced from its purpose and the requirements of the society in which the given visual language gains currency." (Ernst H Gombrich," Art and illusion", 1960)

"Mental pictures offer us an opportunity to practice new traits and attitudes, which otherwise we could not do. This is possible because again - your nervous system cannot tell the difference between an actual experience and one that is vividly imagined." (Maxwell Maltz, "Psycho-Cybernetics", 1960)

"What a man sees depends both upon what he looks at and also upon what his previous visual-conceptual experience has taught him to see." (Thomas Kuhn, "The Structure of Scientific Revolutions", 1962)

"People may come along and argue philosophically that they like one better than another; but we have learned from much experience that all philosophical intuitions about what nature is going to do fail." (Richard Feynman, "The Character of Physical Law", 1965)

"The most pervasive paradox of the human condition which we see is that the processes which allow us to survive, grow, change, and experience joy are the same processes which allow us to maintain an impoverished model of the world - our ability to manipulate symbols, that is, to create models. So the processes which allow us to accomplish the most extraordinary and unique human activities are the same processes which block our further growth if we commit the error of mistaking the model of the world for reality." (Richard Bandler & John Grinder, "The Structure of Magic", 1975)

"Imagining is not perceiving, but images are indeed derivatives of perceptual activity. In particular, they are the anticipatory phases of that activity, schemata that the perceiver has detached from the perceptual cycle for other purposes. […] The experience of having an image is just the inner aspect of a readiness to perceive the imagined object. (Ulrich Neisser, "Cognition and Reality" 1976)

"A mental image occurs when a representation of the type created during the initial phases of perception is present but the stimulus is not actually being perceived; such representations preserve the perceptible properties of the stimulus and ultimately give rise to the subjective experience of perception." (Stephen Kosslyn, "Image and Mind", 1980)

"These organizational processes result in our perceptions being structured into units corresponding to objects and properties of objects. It is these larger units that may be stored and later assembled into images that are experienced as quasi-pictorial, spatial entities resembling those evoked during perception itself [...] It is erroneous to equate image representations with mental photographs, since this would overlook the fact that images are composed from highly processed perceptual encodings." (Stephen Kosslyn, "Image and Mind", 1980)

"Time goes forward because energy itself is always moving from an available to an unavailable state. Our consciousness is continually recording the entropy change in the world around us. [...] we experience the passage of time by the succession of one event after another. And every time an event occurs anywhere in this world energy is expended and the overall entropy is increased. To say the world is running out of time then, to say the world is running out of usable energy. In the words of Sir Arthur Eddington, 'Entropy is time's arrow'." (Jeremy Rifkin, "Entropy", 1980)

"Analogies, metaphors, and emblems are the threads by which the mind holds on to the world even when, absentmindedly, it has lost direct contact with it, and they guarantee the unity of human experience. Moreover, in the thinking process itself they serve as models to give us our bearings lest we stagger blindly among experiences that our bodily senses with their relative certainty of knowledge cannot guide us through." (Hannah Arendt, "The Life of the Mind", 1981)

"That is to say, intuition is not a direct perception of something existing externally and eternally. It is the effect in the mind of certain experiences of activity and manipulation of concrete objects (at a later stage, of marks on paper or even mental images). As a result of this experience, there is something (a trace, an effect) in the pupil's mind which is his representation of the integers. But his representation is equivalent to mine, in the sense that we both get die same answer to any question you ask - or if we get different answers, we can compare notes and figure out what's right. We do this, not because we have been taught a set of algebraic rules, but because our mental pictures match each other." (Philip J Davis & Reuben Hersh, "The Mathematical Experience", 1981)

"The thinking person goes over the same ground many times. He looks at it from varying points of view - his own, his arch-enemy’s, others’. He diagrams it, verbalizes it, formulates equations, constructs visual images of the whole problem, or of troublesome parts, or of what is clearly known. But he does not keep a detailed record of all this mental work, indeed could not. […] Deep understanding of a domain of knowledge requires knowing it in various ways. This multiplicity of perspectives grows slowly through hard work and sets the state for the re-cognition we experience as a new insight." (Howard E Gruber, "Darwin on Man", 1981)

"[...] without imagination, heightened awareness, moral sense, and some reference to the general culture, the engineering experience becomes less meaningful, less fulfilling than it should be." (Samuel C Florman, "The Civilized Engineer", 1985)

"Metaphor [is] a pervasive mode of understanding by which we project patterns from one domain of experience in order to structure another domain of a different kind. So conceived metaphor is not merely a linguistic mode of expression; rather, it is one of the chief cognitive structures by which we are able to have coherent, ordered experiences that we can reason about and make sense of. Through metaphor, we make use of patterns that obtain in our physical experience to organise our more abstract understanding. " (Mark Johnson, "The Body in the Mind", 1987)

"When we focus consciously on an object - and create a mental image for eexample- it's not because the brain pattern is a copy or neural representation of the perceived object, but because the brain experiences a special kind of interaction with that object, preparing the brain to deal with it." (Roger W Sperry, "New Mindset on Consciousness", Sunrise magazine, 1987/1988)

"Each of us has many, many maps in our head, which can be divided into two main categories: maps of the way things are, or realities, and maps of the way things should be, or values. We interpret everything we experience through these mental maps. We seldom question their accuracy; we're usually even unaware that we have them. We simply assume that the way we see things is the way they really are or the way they should be."  (Stephen Covey, "The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People", 1989)

"Modeling underlies our ability to think and imagine, to use signs and language, to communicate, to generalize from experience, to deal with the unexpected, and to make sense out of the raw bombardment of our sensations. It allows us to see patterns, to appreciate, predict, and manipulate processes and things, and to express meaning and purpose. In short, it is one of the most essential activities of the human mind. It is the foundation of what we call intelligent behavior and is a large part of what makes us human. We are, in a word, modelers: creatures that build and use models routinely, habitually – sometimes even compulsively – to face, understand, and interact with reality."  (Jeff Rothenberg, "The Nature of Modeling. In: Artificial Intelligence, Simulation, and Modeling", 1989)

"The more aware we are of our basic paradigms, maps, or assumptions, and the extent to which we have been influenced by our experience, the more we can take responsibility for those paradigms, examine them, test them against reality, listen to others and be open to their perceptions, thereby getting a larger picture and a far more objective view." (Stephen Covey, "The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People", 1989)

"Many people would accept that we do not really have knowledge of the world; we have knowledge only of our representations of the world. Yet we seem condemned by our consitution to treat these representations as if they were the world, for our everyday experience feels as if it were of a given and immediate world." (Francisco Varela, "The Embodied Mind", 1991)

"The most persuasive positive argument for mental images as objects is [that] whenever one thinks one is seeing something there must be something one is seeing. It might be an object directly, or it might be a mental picture. [This] point is so plausible that it is deniable only at the peril of becoming arbitrary. One should concede that the question whether mental images are entities of some sort is not resolvable by logical or linguistic analysis, and believe what makes sense of experience." (Eva T H Brann, "The World of Imagination", 1991)

"A world view is a system of co-ordinates or a frame of reference in which everything presented to us by our diverse experiences can be placed. It is a symbolic system of representation that allows us to integrate everything we know about the world and ourselves into a global picture, one that illuminates reality as it is presented to us within a certain culture. […] A world view is a coherent collection of concepts and theorems that must allow us to construct a global image of the world, and in this way to understand as many elements of our experience as possible." (Diederick Aerts et al, "World views: From Fragmentation to Integration", 1994)

"A mental model is not normally based on formal definitions but rather on concrete properties that have been drawn from life experience. Mental models are typically analogs, and they comprise specific contents, but this does not necessarily restrict their power to deal with abstract concepts, as we will see. The important thing about mental models, especially in the context of mathematics, is the relations they represent. […]  The essence of understanding a concept is to have a mental representation or mental model that faithfully reflects the structure of that concept. (Lyn D. English & Graeme S. Halford, "Mathematics Education: Models and Processes", 1995)

"We all depend on models to interpret our everyday experiences. We interpret what we see in terms of mental models constructed on past experience and education. They are constructs that we use to understand the pattern of our experiences." (David Bartholomew, "What is Statistics?", 1995)

"When we visually perceive the world, we do not just process information; we have a subjective experience of color, shape, and depth. We have experiences associated with other senses (think of auditory experiences of music, or the ineffable nature of smell experiences), with bodily sensations (e.g., pains, tickles, and orgasms), with mental imagery (e.g., the colored shapes that appear when one tubs one's eyes), with emotion (the sparkle of happiness, the intensity of anger, the weight of despair), and with the stream of conscious thought." (David Chalmers, "The Puzzle of Conscious Experience", Scientific American, 1995)

"If we are to have meaningful, connected experiences; ones that we can comprehend and reason about; we must be able to discern patterns to our actions, perceptions, and conceptions. Underlying our vast network of interrelated literal meanings (all of those words about objects and actions) are those imaginative structures of understanding such as schema and metaphor, such as the mental imagery that allows us to extrapolate a path, or zoom in on one part of the whole, or zoom out until the trees merge into a forest." (William H Calvin, "The Cerebral Code", 1996)

"The power of images consists largely in the fact that they integrate different types of knowledge and experience." (David Gooding, "Creative Rationality", 1996)

"Faced with the overwhelming complexity of the real world, time pressure, and limited cognitive capabilities, we are forced to fall back on rote procedures, habits, rules of thumb, and simple mental models to make decisions. Though we sometimes strive to make the best decisions we can, bounded rationality means we often systematically fall short, limiting our ability to learn from experience." (John D Sterman, "Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world", 2000)

"In the language of mental models, such past experience provided the default assumptions necessary to fill the gaps in the emerging and necessarily incomplete framework of a relativistic theory of gravitation. It was precisely the nature of these default assumptions that allowed them to be discarded again in the light of novel information - provided, for instance, by the further elaboration of the mathematical formalism - without, however, having to abandon the underlying mental models which could thus continue to function as heuristic orientations." (Jürgen Renn, "Before the Riemann Tensor: The Emergence of Einstein’s Double Strategy", [in "The Universe of General Relativity"] 2000)


"When we acquire a language we don’t simply learn how to use the correct words, grammar and conventions for speaking appropriately in context, we also acquire a ‘world view’: an implicit set of assumptions and presuppositions regarding how to understand the world, who and what we are within it, and everything else that is entailed in categorising our experience." (Michael Forrester," Psychology of the Image", 2000)

"A mental model is a representation of some domain or situation that supports understanding, reasoning, and prediction. Mental models permit reasoning about situations not directly experienced. They allow people to mentally simulate the behavior of a system. Many mental models are based on generalizations and analogies from experience." (D Gentner, "Psychology of Mental Models" [in "International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences"], 2001)

"In the definition of meaning, it is assumed that both the source and receiver have previously coded (and stored) signals of the same or similar referents, such that the messages may have meaning and relate to behaviour. That is, the used symbols must have the same signification for both sender and receiver. If not, the receiver will create a different mental picture than intended by the transmitter. Meaning is generated by individuals in a process of social interaction with a more or less common environment. It is a relation subsisting within a field of experience and appears as an emergent property of a symbolic representation when used in culturally accepted interaction. The relation between the symbolic representation and its meaning is random. Of this, however, the mathematical theory has nothing to say. If human links in the chain of communication are missing, of course no questions of meaning will arise." (Lars Skyttner, "General Systems Theory: Ideas and Applications", 2001)

"As the least conscious layer of the user experience, the conceptual model has the paradoxical quality of also having the most impact on usability. If an appropriate conceptual model is faithfully represented throughout the interface, after users recognize and internalize the model, they will have a fundamental understanding of what the application does and how to operate it." (Bob Baxley, "Making the Web Work: Designing Effective Web Applications", 2002)

"Ecological rationality uses reason – rational reconstruction – to examine the behavior of individuals based on their experience and folk knowledge, who are ‘naïve’ in their ability to apply constructivist tools to the decisions they make; to understand the emergent order in human cultures; to discover the possible intelligence embodied in the rules, norms and institutions of our cultural and biological heritage that are created from human interactions but not by deliberate human design. People follow rules without being able to articulate them, but they can be discovered." (Vernon L Smith, "Constructivist and ecological rationality in economics", 2002)

"A mental model is conceived […] as a knowledge structure possessing slots that can be filled not only with empirically gained information but also with ‘default assumptions’ resulting from prior experience. These default assumptions can be substituted by updated information so that inferences based on the model can be corrected without abandoning the model as a whole. Information is assimilated to the slots of a mental model in the form of ‘frames’ which are understood here as ‘chunks’ of knowledge with a well-defined meaning anchored in a given body of shared knowledge." (Jürgen Renn, "Before the Riemann Tensor: The Emergence of Einstein’s Double Strategy", "The Universe of General Relativity" Ed. by A.J. Kox & Jean Eisenstaedt, 2005)

"Patterns experienced again and again become intuitions. […] Intuitive judgments are made by our use of imagery; intuition is the result of mental model building. […] The mental model used and the form of the intuition is dependent upon the question being answered." (Roger Frantz, "Two Minds", 2005)

"We must begin by distinguishing between visual mental imagery and visual perception: Visual perception occurs while a stimulus is being viewed, and includes functions such as visual recognition (i. e., registering that a stimulus is familiar) and identification (i. e., recalling the name, context, or other information associated with the object). Two types of mechanisms are used in visual perception: ‘bottom-up’ mechanisms are driven by the input from the eyes; in contrast, ‘top-down’ mechanisms make use of stored information (such as knowledge, belief, expectations, and goals). Visual mental imagery is a set of representations that gives rise to the experience of viewing a stimulus in the absence of appropriate sensory input. In this case, information in memory underlies the internal events that produce the experience. Unlike afterimages, mental images are relatively prolonged." (Stephen M Kosslyn, "Mental images and the brain", Cognitive Neuropsychology 22, 2005)

"When a particular image appears in the mind's eye often enough it begins to connect apparently unrelated ideas leading to models and theories. […] Patterns experienced again and again become intuitions. […] Intuitive judgments are made by our use of imagery; intuition is the result of mental model building. […] The mental model used and the form of the intuition is dependent upon the question being answered." (Roger Frantz, "Two Minds", 2005)

"Often our mental models serve a very useful and practical purpose by helping us to make very quick sense of our experiences and interactions. However, the danger for us is that our mental models do not always reflect the truth, i.e. the way things really are. Often they reflect what we believe to be true, and sometimes we get it wrong." (John Middleton, "Upgrade Your Brain: 52 brilliant ideas for everyday genius", 2006)

"Our inner working models, therefore, function as interpretation schemes, on the basis of which we organize our experiences. But, such schemes also distort reality in the direction of our pattern of expectations. In short: such working models organize and screen our experiences. This means that such an inner working model organizes and colours our perception of things in such a way that it can be extremely stimulating but can also sometimes slow us down considerably." (M H M de Wolf, "Freud and Mahler", 2007)

"A worldview must be coherent, logical and adequate. Coherence means that the fundamental ideas constituting the worldview must be seen as proceeding from a single, unifying, overarching concept. A logical worldview means simply that the various ideas constituting it should not be contradictory. Adequate means that it is capable of explaining, logically and coherently, every element of contemporary experience." (M. G. Jackson, "Transformative Learning for a New Worldview: Learning to Think Differently", 2008)

"Actually, around 80% of the data we use to make decisions is already in our heads before we engage with a situation. Our power to perceive is governed and limited by cognitive filters, sometimes termed our ‘mental model’. Mental models are formed as a result of past experience, knowledge and attitudes. They are deeply ingrained, often subconscious, structures that limit what we perceive and also colour our interpretation of supposed facts." (Robina Chatham & Brian Sutton, "Changing the IT Leader’s Mindset", 2010)

"We all have mental models: the lens through which we see the world that drive our responses to everything we experience. Being aware of your mental models is key to being objective." (Elizabeth Thornton, "Learn to Be an Objective Leader without Losing Everything", 2015)

"When a culture is founded on the principle of immediacy of experience, there is no need for numeracy. It is impossible to consume more than one thing at a time, so differentiating between 'a small amount', 'a larger amount' and 'many' is enough for survival." (The Open University, "Understanding the environment: learning and communication", 2016)

10 December 2022

Systems Thinking: On Flows (Quotes)

"As soon as we are convinced that all technical and non-technical feedback systems are closely related, these relationships must not be distinguished by their specific designs in anatomy or technology; on the contrary their only common characterisation is the analogy of signal flows and the dynamics of control." (Hermann Schmidt, "Regelungstechnik - die technische Aufgabe und ihre wissenschaftliche, sozialpolitische und kulturpolitische Auswirkung", Verein Deutscher Ingenieure, Zeitschrift Vol. 85 (4), 1941)

"Conventional physics deals only with closed systems, i.e. systems which are considered to be isolated from their environment. [...] However, we find systems which by their very nature and definition are not closed systems. Every living organism is essentially an open system. It maintains itself in a continuous inflow and outflow, a building up and breaking down of components, never being, so long as it is alive, in a state of chemical and thermodynamic equilibrium but maintained in a so-called steady state which is distinct from the latter." (Ludwig von Bertalanffy, "General System Theory", 1968)

"In complex systems cause and effect are often not closely related in either time or space. The structure of a complex system is not a simple feedback loop where one system state dominates the behavior. The complex system has a multiplicity of interacting feedback loops. Its internal rates of flow are controlled by nonlinear relationships. The complex system is of high order, meaning that there are many system states (or levels). It usually contains positive-feedback loops describing growth processes as well as negative, goal-seeking loops. In the complex system the cause of a difficulty may lie far back in time from the symptoms, or in a completely different and remote part of the system. In fact, causes are usually found, not in prior events, but in the structure and policies of the system." (Jay Wright Forrester, "Urban dynamics", 1969)

"My analysis of living systems uses concepts of thermodynamics, information theory, cybernetics, and systems engineering, as well as the classical concepts appropriate to each level. The purpose is to produce a description of living structure and process in terms of input and output, flows through systems, steady states, and feedbacks, which will clarify and unify the facts of life." (James G Miller, "Living Systems: Basic Concepts", 1969)

"The structure of a complex system is not a simple feedback loop where one system state dominates the behavior. The complex system has a multiplicity of interacting feedback loops. Its internal rates of flow are controlled by non‐linear relationships. The complex system is of high order, meaning that there are many system states (or levels). It usually contains positive‐feedback loops describing growth processes as well as negative, goal‐seeking loops." (Jay F Forrester, "Urban Dynamics", 1969)

"In planning the idea of decentralization must be connected with routines of linking plans of rather autonomous parts of the whole system. Here one can use a conditional separation of the system by means of fixing values of flows and parameters transmitted from one part to another. One can use an idea of sequential recomputation of the parameters, which was successfully developed by many authors for the scheme of Dantzig-Wolfe and for aggregative linear models." (Leonid V Kantorovich, "Mathematics in Economics: Achievements, Difficulties, Perspectives," 1975)

"All nature is a continuum. The endless complexity of life is organized into patterns which repeat themselves - theme and variations - at each level of system. These similarities and differences are proper concerns for science. From the ceaseless streaming of protoplasm to the many-vectored activities of supranational systems, there are continuous flows through living systems as they maintain their highly organized steady states." (James G Miller, "Living Systems", 1978)

"What is in the present is what the image ‘represents‘, but not the image itself which, in cinema as in painting, is never to be confused with what it represents. The image itself is the system of the relationships between its elements, that is, a set of relationships from which the variable present only flows. […] What is specific in the image, as soon as it is creative, is to make perceptible, to make visible, relationships of time which cannot be seen in the represented object and do not allow them - selves to be reduced to the present." (Gilles Deleuze, "Cinema 2: The Time-Image", 1980)

"The study of changes in the qualitative structure of the flow of a differential equation as parameters are varied is called bifurcation theory. At a given parameter value, a differential equation is said to have stable orbit structure if the qualitative structure of the flow does not change for sufficiently small variations of the parameter. A parameter value for which the flow does not have stable orbit structure is called a bifurcation value, and the equation is said to be at a bifurcation point." (Jack K Hale & Hüseyin Kocak, "Dynamics and Bifurcations", 1991)

"The new information technologies can be seen to drive societies toward increasingly dynamic high-energy regions further and further from thermodynamical equilibrium, characterized by decreasing specific entropy and increasingly dense free-energy flows, accessed and processed by more and more complex social, economic, and political structures." (Ervin László, "Information Technology and Social Change: An Evolutionary Systems Analysis", Behavioral Science 37, 1992)

"Dynamical systems that vary continuously, like the pendulum and the rolling rock, and evidently the pinball machine when a ball’s complete motion is considered, are technically known as flows. The mathematical tool for handling a flow is the differential equation. A system of differential equations amounts to a set of formulas that together express the rates at which all of the variables are currently changing, in terms of the current values of the variables." (Edward N Lorenz, "The Essence of Chaos", 1993)

"Dynamical systems that vary in discrete steps […] are technically known as mappings. The mathematical tool for handling a mapping is the difference equation. A system of difference equations amounts to a set of formulas that together express the values of all of the variables at the next step in terms of the values at the current step. […] For mappings, the difference equations directly express future states in terms of present ones, and obtaining chronological sequences of points poses no problems. For flows, the differential equations must first be solved. General solutions of equations whose particular solutions are chaotic cannot ordinarily be found, and approximations to the latter are usually determined by numerical methods." (Edward N Lorenz, "The Essence of Chaos", 1993)

"When the pinball game is treated as a flow instead of a mapping, and a simple enough system of differential equations is used as a model, it may be possible to solve the equations. A complete solution will contain expressions that give the values of the variables at any given time in terms of the values at any previous time. When the times are those of consecutive strikes on a pin, the expressions will amount to nothing more than a system of difference equations, which in this case will have been derived by solving the differential equations. Thus a mapping will have been derived from a flow." (Edward N Lorenz, "The Essence of Chaos", 1993)

"A model for simulating dynamic system behavior requires formal policy descriptions to specify how individual decisions are to be made. Flows of information are continuously converted into decisions and actions. No plea about the inadequacy of our understanding of the decision-making processes can excuse us from estimating decision-making criteria. To omit a decision point is to deny its presence - a mistake of far greater magnitude than any errors in our best estimate of the process." (Jay W Forrester, "Policies, decisions and information sources for modeling", 1994)

"It [Living Systems Theory (LST)] involves observing and measuring important relationships between inputs and outputs of the total system and identifying the structures that perform each of the sub‐system processes. […] The flows of relevant matter, energy, and information through the system and the adjustment processes of subsystems and the total system are also examined. The status and function of the system are analyzed and compared with what is average or normal for that type of system. If the system is experiencing a disturbance in some steady state, an effort is made to discover the source of the strain and correct it." (James G Miller & Jessie L Miller, "Applications of living systems theory", Systemic Practice and Action Research 8, 1995)

"The multiplier effect is a major feature of networks and flows. It arises regardless of the particular nature of the resource, be it goods, money, or messages." (John H Holland, "Hidden Order - How Adaptation Builds Complexity", 1995)

"Knowledge, truth, and information flow in networks and swarm systems. I have always been interested in the texture of scientific knowledge because it appears to be lumpy and uneven. Much of what we collectively know derives from a few small areas, yet between them lie vast deserts of ignorance. I can interpret that observation now as the effect of positive feedback and attractors. A little bit of knowledge illuminates much around it, and that new illumination feeds on itself, so one corner explodes. The reverse also holds true: ignorance breeds ignorance. Areas where nothing is known, everyone avoids, so nothing is discovered. The result is an uneven landscape of empty know-nothing interrupted by hills of self-organized knowledge." (Kevin Kelly, "Out of Control: The New Biology of Machines, Social Systems and the Economic World", 1995) 

"The worldview of the classical sciences conceptualized nature as a giant machine composed of intricate but replaceable machine-like parts. The new systems sciences look at nature as an organism endowed with irreplaceable elements and an innate but non-deterministic purpose for choice, for flow, for spontaneity." (Ervin László, "The Systems View of the World", 1996)

"Complex systems operate under conditions far from equilibrium. Complex systems need a constant flow of energy to change, evolve and survive as complex entities. Equilibrium, symmetry and complete stability mean death. Just as the flow, of energy is necessary to fight entropy and maintain the complex structure of the system, society can only survive as a process. It is defined not by its origins or its goals, but by what it is doing." (Paul Cilliers, "Complexity and Postmodernism: Understanding Complex Systems", 1998)

"Much of the art of system dynamics modeling is discovering and representing the feedback processes, which, along with stock and flow structures, time delays, and nonlinearities, determine the dynamics of a system. […] the most complex behaviors usually arise from the interactions (feedbacks) among the components of the system, not from the complexity of the components themselves." (John D Sterman, "Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world", 2000)

"The mental models people use to guide their decisions are dynamically deficient. […] people generally adopt an event-based, open-loop view of causality, ignore feedback processes, fail to appreciate time delays between action and response and in the reporting of information, do not understand stocks and flows and are insensitive to nonlinearities that may alter the strengths of different feedback loops as a system evolves." (John D Sterman, "Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world", 2000)

"The science of cybernetics is not about thermostats or machines; that characterization is a caricature. Cybernetics is about purposiveness, goals, information flows, decision-making control processes and feedback (properly defined) at all levels of living systems." (Peter Corning, "Synergy, Cybernetics, and the Evolution of Politics", 2005) 

"A neural network is a particular kind of computer program, originally developed to try to mimic the way the human brain works. It is essentially a computer simulation of a complex circuit through which electric current flows." (Keith J Devlin & Gary Lorden, "The Numbers behind NUMB3RS: Solving crime with mathematics", 2007)

"In the network society, the space of flows dissolves time by disordering the sequence of events and making them simultaneous in the communication networks, thus installing society in structural ephemerality: being cancels becoming." (Manuel Castells, "Communication Power", 2009)

"Another property of bounded systems is that, unless the trajectory attracts to an equilibrium point where it stalls and remains forever, the points must continue moving forever with the flow. However, if we consider two initial conditions separated by a small distance along the direction of the flow, they will maintain their average separation forever since they are subject to the exact same flow but only delayed slightly in time. This fact implies that one of the Lyapunov exponents for a bounded continuous flow must be zero unless the flow attracts to a stable equilibrium." (Julien C Sprott, "Elegant Chaos: Algebraically Simple Chaotic Flows", 2010)

"In contrast to flow maps, origin-destination maps’ paths are highly structured, and do not use arrowheads to indicate direction. Both types of maps illustrate the volume of flow by varying the thickness of the path line’s shaft, some by gradually trimming the thickness of the shaft, others by splitting the shaft into sections and giving each section its own uniform thickness." (Menno-Jan Kraak, "Mapping Time: Illustrated by Minard’s map of Napoleon’s Russian Campaign of 1812", 2014)

22 August 2022

Science: On Innovation (Quotes)

"And it ought to be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things. Because the innovator has for enemies all those who have done well under the old conditions, and lukewarm defenders in those who may do well under the new."  (Nicolo Machiavelli, cca. 1505)

"Engineering is a profession, an art of action and synthesis and not simply a body of knowledge. Its highest calling is to invent and innovate." (Daniel V DeSimone & Hardy Cross, "Education for Innovation", 1968)

"Technological invention and innovation are the business of engineering. They are embodied in engineering change." (Daniel V DeSimone & Hardy Cross, "Education for Innovation", 1968)

"Above all, innovation is not invention. It is a term of economics rather than of technology. [...] The measure of innovation is the impact on the environment. [...] To manage innovation, a manager has to be at least literate with respect to the dynamics of innovation." (Peter F Drucker, "People and Performance", 1977)

"Nothing is more dangerous than a dogmatic worldview - nothing more constraining, more blinding to innovation, more destructive of openness to novelty." (Stephen J Gould, "Dinosaur in a Haystack: reflections in natural history", 1995)

"The nature of maps and of their use in science and society is in the midst of remarkable change - change that is stimulated by a combination of new scientific and societal needs for geo-referenced information and rapidly evolving technologies that can provide that information in innovative ways. A key issue at the heart of this change is the concept of ‘visualization’." (Alan MacEachren, "Exploratory cartographic visualization: advancing the agenda", 1997)

"Often, the most striking and innovative solutions come from realizing that your concept of the problem was wrong." (Eric S Raymond, "The Cathedral & the Bazaar: Musings on Linux and Open Source by an Accidental Revolutionary", 1999)

"An ecology provides the special formations needed by organizations. Ecologies are: loose, free, dynamic, adaptable, messy, and chaotic. Innovation does not arise through hierarchies. As a function of creativity, innovation requires trust, openness, and a spirit of experimentation - where random ideas and thoughts can collide for re-creation." (George Siemens, "Knowing Knowledge", 2006)

"Collective Intelligence (CI) is the capacity of human collectives to engage in intellectual cooperation in order to create, innovate, and invent." (Pierre Levy, "Toward a Self-referential Collective Intelligence", 2009)

"Even more important is the way complex systems seem to strike a balance between the need for order and the imperative for change. Complex systems tend to locate themselves at a place we call 'the edge of chaos'. We imagine the edge of chaos as a place where there is enough innovation to keep a living system vibrant, and enough stability to keep it from collapsing into anarchy. It is a zone of conflict and upheaval, where the old and new are constantly at war. Finding the balance point must be a delicate matter - if a living system drifts too close, it risks falling over into incoherence and dissolution; but if the system moves too far away from the edge, it becomes rigid, frozen, totalitarian. Both conditions lead to extinction. […] Only at the edge of chaos can complex systems flourish. This threshold line, that edge between anarchy and frozen rigidity, is not a like a fence line, it is a fractal line; it possesses nonlinearity. (Stephen H Buhner, "Plant Intelligence and the Imaginal Realm: Beyond the Doors of Perception into the Dreaming of Earth", 2014)

"A significant factor missing from any form of artificial intelligence is the inability of machines to learn based on real life experience. Diversity of life experience is the single most powerful characteristic of being human and enhances how we think, how we learn, our ideas and our ability to innovate. Machines exist in a homogeneous ecosystem, which is ok for solving known challenges, however even Artificial General Intelligence will never challenge humanity in being able to acquire the knowledge, creativity and foresight needed to meet the challenges of the unknown." (Tom Golway, 2021)

Science: Regression toward the Mean (Quotes)

"Whenever we make any decision based on the expectation that matters will return to 'normal', we are employing the notion of regression to the mean." (Peter L Bernstein, "Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk", 1996)

"Regression to the mean occurs when the process produces results that are statistically independent or negatively correlated. With strong negative serial correlation, extremes are likely to be reversed each time (which would reinforce the instructors' error). In contrast, with strong positive dependence, extreme results are quite likely to be clustered together." (Dan Trietsch, "Statistical Quality Control : A loss minimization approach", 1998) 

"Unfortunately, people are poor intuitive scientists, generally failing to reason in accordance with the principles of scientific method. For example, people do not generate sufficient alternative explanations or consider enough rival hypotheses. People generally do not adequately control for confounding variables when they explore a novel environment. People’s judgments are strongly affected by the frame in which the information is presented, even when the objective information is unchanged. People suffer from overconfidence in their judgments (underestimating uncertainty), wishful thinking (assessing desired outcomes as more likely than undesired outcomes), and the illusion of control (believing one can predict or influence the outcome of random events). People violate basic rules of probability, do not understand basic statistical concepts such as regression to the mean, and do not update beliefs according to Bayes’ rule. Memory is distorted by hindsight, the availability and salience of examples, and the desirability of outcomes. And so on."  (John D Sterman, "Business Dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world", 2000)

 "People often attribute meaning to phenomena governed only by a regression to the mean, the mathematical tendency for an extreme value of an at least partially chance-dependent quantity to be followed by a value closer to the average. Sports and business are certainly chancy enterprises and thus subject to regression. So is genetics to an extent, and so very tall parents can be expected to have offspring who are tall, but probably not as tall as they are. A similar tendency holds for the children of very short parents." (John A Paulos, "A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market", 2003)

"'Regression to the mean' […] says that, in any series of events where chance is involved, very good or bad performances, high or low scores, extreme events, etc. tend on the average, to be followed by more average performance or less extreme events. If we do extremely well, we're likely to do worse the next time, while if we do poorly, we're likely to do better the next time. But regression to the mean is not a natural law. Merely a statistical tendency. And it may take a long time before it happens." (Peter Bevelin, "Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger",  2003)

"Another aspect of representativeness that is misunderstood or ignored is the tendency of regression to the mean. Stochastic phenomena where the outcomes vary randomly around stable values (so-called stationary processes) exhibit the general tendency that extreme outcomes are more likely to be followed by an outcome closer to the mean or mode than by other extreme values in the same direction. For example, even a bright student will observe that her or his performance in a test following an especially outstanding outcome tends to be less brilliant. Similarly, extremely low or extremely high sales in a given period tend to be followed by sales that are closer to the stable mean or the stable trend." (Hans G Daellenbach & Donald C McNickle, "Management Science: Decision making through systems thinking", 2005)

"Behavioural research shows that we tend to use simplifying heuristics when making judgements about uncertain events. These are prone to biases and systematic errors, such as stereotyping, disregard of sample size, disregard for regression to the mean, deriving estimates based on the ease of retrieving instances of the event, anchoring to the initial frame, the gambler’s fallacy, and wishful thinking, which are all affected by our inability to consider more than a few aspects or dimensions of any phenomenon or situation at the same time." (Hans G Daellenbach & Donald C McNickle, "Management Science: Decision making through systems thinking", 2005)

"regression to the mean: The fact that unexpectedly high or low numbers from the mean are an exception and are usually followed by numbers that are closer to the mean. Over the long haul, we tend to get relatively more numbers that are near the mean compared to numbers that are far from the mean." (Hari Singh, "Framed! Solve an Intriguing Mystery and Master How to Make Smart Choices", 2006)

 "A naive interpretation of regression to the mean is that heights, or baseball records, or other variable phenomena necessarily become more and more 'average' over time. This view is mistaken because it ignores the error in the regression predicting y from x. For any data point xi, the point prediction for its yi will be regressed toward the mean, but the actual yi that is observed will not be exactly where it is predicted. Some points end up falling closer to the mean and some fall further." (Andrew Gelman & Jennifer Hill, "Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models", 2007)

"Regression toward the mean. That is, in any series of random events an extraordinary event is most likely to be followed, due purely to chance, by a more ordinary one." (Leonard Mlodinow, "The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives", 2008)

"Regression does not describe changes in ability that happen as time passes […]. Regression is caused by performances fluctuating about ability, so that performances far from the mean reflect abilities that are closer to the mean." (Gary Smith, "Standard Deviations", 2014)

"We encounter regression in many contexts - pretty much whenever we see an imperfect measure of what we are trying to measure. Standardized tests are obviously an imperfect measure of ability. [...] Each experimental score is an imperfect measure of “ability,” the benefits from the layout. To the extent there is randomness in this experiment - and there surely is - the prospective benefits from the layout that has the highest score are probably closer to the mean than was the score." (Gary Smith, "Standard Deviations", 2014)

"When a trait, such as academic or athletic ability, is measured imperfectly, the observed differences in performance exaggerate the actual differences in ability. Those who perform the best are probably not as far above average as they seem. Nor are those who perform the worst as far below average as they seem. Their subsequent performances will consequently regress to the mean." (Gary Smith, "Standard Deviations", 2014)

"The term shrinkage is used in regression modeling to denote two ideas. The first meaning relates to the slope of a calibration plot, which is a plot of observed responses against predicted responses. When a dataset is used to fit the model parameters as well as to obtain the calibration plot, the usual estimation process will force the slope of observed versus predicted values to be one. When, however, parameter estimates are derived from one dataset and then applied to predict outcomes on an independent dataset, overfitting will cause the slope of the calibration plot (i.e., the shrinkage factor ) to be less than one, a result of regression to the mean. Typically, low predictions will be too low and high predictions too high. Predictions near the mean predicted value will usually be quite accurate. The second meaning of shrinkage is a statistical estimation method that preshrinks regression coefficients towards zero so that the calibration plot for new data will not need shrinkage as its calibration slope will be one." (Frank E. Harrell Jr., "Regression Modeling Strategies: With Applications to Linear Models, Logistic and Ordinal Regression, and Survival Analysis" 2nd Ed, 2015)

"Often when people relate essentially the same variable in two different groups, or at two different times, they see this same phenomenon - the tendency of the response variable to be closer to the mean than the predicted value. Unfortunately, people try to interpret this by thinking that the performance of those far from the mean is deteriorating, but it’s just a mathematical fact about the correlation. So, today we try to be less judgmental about this phenomenon and we call it regression to the mean. We managed to get rid of the term 'mediocrity', but the name regression stuck as a name for the whole least squares fitting procedure - and that’s where we get the term regression line." (Richard D De Veaux et al, "Stats: Data and Models", 2016)

"Regression toward the mean is pervasive. In sports, excellent performance tends to be followed by good, but less outstanding, performance. [...] By contrast, the good news about regression toward the mean is that very poor performance tends to be followed by improved performance. If you got the worst score in your statistics class on the first exam, you probably did not do so poorly on the second exam (but you were probably still below the mean)." (Alan Agresti et al, Statistics: The Art and Science of Learning from Data" 4th Ed., 2018)

31 July 2022

Systems Thinking: On Diversity (Quotes)

"The diversity of languages is not a diversity of signs and sounds but a diversity of views of the world." (Wilhelm von Humboldt, 1820)

"As long as men inquire, they will find opportunities to know more upon these topics than those who have gone before them, so inexhaustibly rich is nature in the innermost diversity of her treasures of beauty, order, and intelligence." (J Louis R Agassiz, "Essay on Classification", 1859)

"Unity of plan everywhere lies hidden under the mask of diversity of structure - the complex is everywhere evolved out of the simple." (Thomas H Huxley, "A Lobster; or, the Study of Zoology", 1861)

"[...] the simplicity of nature which we at present grasp is really the result of infinite complexity; and that below the uniformity there underlies a diversity whose depths we have not yet probed, and whose secret places are still beyond our reach." (William Spottiswoode, [Report of the Forty-eighth Meeting of the British Association for the, Advancement of Science] 1878)

"Cybernetics is likely to reveal a great number of interesting and suggestive parallelisms between machine and brain and society. And it can provide the common language by which discoveries in one branch can readily be made use of in the others. [...] [There are] two peculiar scientific virtues of cybernetics that are worth explicit mention. One is that it offers a single vocabulary and a single set of concepts suitable for representing the most diverse types of system. [...] The second peculiar virtue of cybernetics is that it offers a method for the scientific treatment of the system in which complexity is outstanding and too important to be ignored. Such systems are, as we well know, only too common in the biological world!" (W Ross Ashby, "An Introduction to Cybernetics", 1956)

"Scientific research utilises models in many places, as instruments in the service of many different needs. The first requirement a study of model-building in science should satisfy is not to neglect this undeniable diversity (as has sometimes been done), and, when recognising this multiplicity, to realise that the same instrument cannot perform all those functions (often the multiplicity of function is recognised but either not to a full extent, or not with respect to the difference of structure it implies)." (Leo Apostel, "Towards the formal study of models in the non-formal sciences", Synthese Vol. 12 (2-3), 1960)

"Science is the reduction of the bewildering diversity of unique events to manageable uniformity within one of a number of symbol systems, and technology is the art of using these symbol systems so as to control and organize unique events. Scientific observation is always a viewing of things through the refracting medium of a symbol system, and technological praxis is always handling of things in ways that some symbol system has dictated. Education in science and technology is essentially education on the symbol level." (Aldous L Huxley, "Essay", Daedalus, 1962)

"The words 'general systems theory' imply that some things can usefully be said about (living) systems in general, despite the immense diversity of their specific forms. One of these things should be a scheme of classification. Every science begins by classifying its subject matter, if only descriptively, and learns a lot about it in the process; and systems especially need this attention, because an adequate classification cuts across familiar boundaries and at the same time draws valid and important distinctions which have previously been sensed but not defined." (Geoffrey Vickers, 1970)

"Whereas traditional reductionism sought to find the commonality underlying diversity in reference to a shared substance, such as material atoms, contemporary systems theory seeks to find common features in terms of shared aspects of organization." (Ervin László, "The Systems View of the World: A Holistic Vision for Our Time", 1972)

"Every phenomenon is related to other phenomena by connections of more than one value. It is the result both of certain conditions and certain basic factors that act as its cause. That is why the cause-effect connection has to be artificially isolated from the rest of conditions so that we can see this connection in its 'pure form'. But this is achieved only by abstraction. In reality we cannot isolate this connection from the whole set of conditions. There is always a closely interwoven mass of extremely diverse secondary conditions, which leave their mark on the form in which the general connection emerges. This means that there can never be two exactly identical phenomena, even if they are generated by the same causes. They have always developed in empirically different conditions. So there can be no absolute identity in the world." (Alexander Spirkin, "Dialectical Materialism", 1983)

"The ecological principle of unity in diversity grades into a richly mediated social principle; hence my use of the term social ecology." (Murray Bookchin,"What Is Social Ecology?" , 1984)

"Any system that insulates itself from diversity in the environment tends to atrophy and lose its complexity and distinctive nature." (Gareth Morgan, "Images of Organization", 1986)

"The principle of maximum diversity operates both at the physical and at the mental level. It says that the laws of nature and the initial conditions are such as to make the universe as interesting as possible.  As a result, life is possible but not too easy. Always when things are dull, something new turns up to challenge us and to stop us from settling into a rut. Examples of things which make life difficult are all around us: comet impacts, ice ages, weapons, plagues, nuclear fission, computers, sex, sin and death.  Not all challenges can be overcome, and so we have tragedy. Maximum diversity often leads to maximum stress. In the end we survive, but only by the skin of our teeth." (Freeman Dyson, "Infinite in All Directions", 1988)

"A world view is a system of co-ordinates or a frame of reference in which everything presented to us by our diverse experiences can be placed. It is a symbolic system of representation that allows us to integrate everything we know about the world and ourselves into a global picture, one that illuminates reality as it is presented to us within a certain culture. […] A world view is a coherent collection of concepts and theorems that must allow us to construct a global image of the world, and in this way to understand as many elements of our experience as possible." (Diederick Aerts et al, "World views: From Fragmentation to Integration", 1994)

"There are a variety of swarm topologies, but the only organization that holds a genuine plurality of shapes is the grand mesh. In fact, a plurality of truly divergent components can only remain coherent in a network. No other arrangement-chain, pyramid, tree, circle, hub-can contain true diversity working as a whole. This is why the network is nearly synonymous with democracy or the market." (Kevin Kelly, "Out of Control: The New Biology of Machines, Social Systems and the Economic World", 1995)

"There is a new science of complexity which says that the link between cause and effect is increasingly difficult to trace; that change (planned or otherwise) unfolds in non-linear ways; that paradoxes and contradictions abound; and that creative solutions arise out of diversity, uncertainty and chaos." (Andy P Hargreaves & Michael Fullan, "What’s Worth Fighting for Out There?", 1998)

"We use mathematics and statistics to describe the diverse realms of randomness. From these descriptions, we attempt to glean insights into the workings of chance and to search for hidden causes. With such tools in hand, we seek patterns and relationships and propose predictions that help us make sense of the world." (Ivars Peterson, "The Jungles of Randomness: A Mathematical Safari", 1998)

"The three basic mechanisms of averaging, feedback and division of labor give us a first idea of a how a CMM [Collective Mental Map] can be developed in the most efficient way, that is, how a given number of individuals can achieve a maximum of collective problem-solving competence. A collective mental map is developed basically by superposing a number of individual mental maps. There must be sufficient diversity among these individual maps to cover an as large as possible domain, yet sufficient redundancy so that the overlap between maps is large enough to make the resulting graph fully connected, and so that each preference in the map is the superposition of a number of individual preferences that is large enough to cancel out individual fluctuations. The best way to quickly expand and improve the map and fill in gaps is to use a positive feedback that encourages individuals to use high preference paths discovered by others, yet is not so strong that it discourages the exploration of new paths." (Francis Heylighen, "Collective Intelligence and its Implementation on the Web", 1999)

"The model [of reality] takes on a life of its own, in which its future is under perpetual construction through the micro interactions of the diverse entities comprising it. The 'final' form toward which it moves is not given in the model itself, nor is it being chosen from outside the model. The forms continually emerge in an unpredictable way as the system moves into the unknown. However, there is nothing mysterious or esoteric about this. What emerges does so because of the transformative cause of the process of the micro interactions, the fluctuations themselves." (Ralph D Stacey et al, "Complexity and Management: Fad or Radical Challenge to Systems Thinking?", 2000)

"The diversity of networks in business and the economy is mindboggling. There are policy networks, ownership networks, collaboration networks, organizational networks, network marketing-you name it. It would be impossible to integrate these diverse interactions into a single all-encompassing web. Yet no matter what organizational level we look at, the same robust and universal laws that govern nature's webs seem to greet us. The challenge is for economic and network research alike to put these laws into practice."  (Albert-László Barabási, "Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means for Business, Science, and Everyday Life", 2002)

"However, the law of accelerating returns pertains to evolution, which is not a closed system. It takes place amid great chaos and indeed depends on the disorder in its midst, from which it draws its options for diversity. And from these options, an evolutionary process continually prunes its choices to create ever greater order."  (Ray Kurzweil, "The Singularity is Near", 2005)

"The smartest groups, then, are made up of people with diverse perspectives who are able to stay independent of each other." (James Surowiecki, "The Wisdom of Crowds", 2005)

"Learning emerges from discovery, not directives; reflection, not rules; possibilities, not prescriptions; diversity, not dogma; creativity and curiosity, not conformity and certainty; and meaning, not mandates." (Stephanie P Marshall, "The Power to Transform: Leadership That Brings Learning and Schooling to Life", 2006)

"[chaos theory] presents a universe that is at once deterministic and obeys the fundamental physical laws, but is capable of disorder, complexity, and unpredictability. It shows that predictability is a rare phenomenon operating only within the constraints that science has filtered out from the rich diversity of our complex world." (Ziauddin Sardar & Iwona Abrams, "Introducing Chaos: A Graphic Guide", 2008)

"Let's face it, the universe is messy. It is nonlinear, turbulent, and chaotic. It is dynamic. It spends its time in transient behavior on its way to somewhere else, not in mathematically neat equilibria. It self-organizes and evolves. It creates diversity, not uniformity. That's what makes the world interesting, that's what makes it beautiful, and that's what makes it work." (Donella H Meadow, "Thinking in Systems: A Primer", 2008)

"The real challenge to building a viable social system is the ability to create unity in diversity, meeting the varying interests of independent members operating in an interdependent whole. […] In the long run, the society and the individual either stand together or fall separately. A win/win relationship is achieved not through zero-sum or even compromise. For both of them to win requires reconceptualization of the nature and the relationship of the whole and the parts." (Jamshid Gharajedaghi, "Systems Thinking: Managing Chaos and Complexity A Platform for Designing Business Architecture" 3rd Ed., 2011)

"The exploding interest in network science during the first decade of the 21st century is rooted in the discovery that despite the obvious diversity of complex systems, the structure and the evolution of the networks behind each system is driven by a common set of fundamental laws and principles. Therefore, notwithstanding the amazing differences in form, size, nature, age, and scope of real networks, most networks are driven by common organizing principles. Once we disregard the nature of the components and the precise nature of the interactions between them, the obtained networks are more similar than different from each other." (Albert-László Barabási, "Network Science", 2016)

"A significant factor missing from any form of artificial intelligence is the inability of machines to learn based on real life experience. Diversity of life experience is the single most powerful characteristic of being human and enhances how we think, how we learn, our ideas and our ability to innovate. Machines exist in a homogeneous ecosystem, which is ok for solving known challenges, however even Artificial General Intelligence will never challenge humanity in being able to acquire the knowledge, creativity and foresight needed to meet the challenges of the unknown." (Tom Golway, 2021)

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