❄️Systems Thinking: On Hubs (Quotes)

"There are a variety of swarm topologies, but the only organization that holds a genuine plurality of shapes is the grand mesh. In fact, a plurality of truly divergent components can only remain coherent in a network. No other arrangement-chain, pyramid, tree, circle, hub-can contain true diversity working as a whole. This is why the network is nearly synonymous with democracy or the market." (Kevin Kelly, "Out of Control: The New Biology of Machines, Social Systems and the Economic World", 1995)

"In a random network the peak of the distribution implies that the vast majority of nodes have the same number of links and that nodes deviating from the average are extremely rare. Therefore, a random network has a characteristic scale in its node connectivity, embodied by the average node and fixed by the peak of the degree distribution. In contrast, the absence of a peak in a power-law degree distribution implies that in a real network there is no such thing as a characteristic node. We see a continuous hierarchy of nodes, spanning from rare hubs to the numerous tiny nodes. The largest hub is closely fol - lowed by two or three somewhat smaller hubs, followed by dozens that are even smaller, and so on, eventually arriving at the numerous small nodes." (Albert-László Barabási, "Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means for Business, Science, and Everyday Life", 2002)

"In networks belonging to the second category, the winner takes all, meaning that the fittest node grabs all links, leaving very little for the rest of the nodes. Such networks develop a star topology, in which all nodes are connected to a central hub. In such a hub-and-spokes network there is a huge gap between the lonely hub and everybody else in the system. Thus a winner-takes-all network is very different from the scale-free networks we encountered earlier, where there is a hierarchy of hubs whose size distribution follows a power law. A winner-takes-all network is not scale-free. Instead there is a single hub and many tiny nodes. This is a very important distinction." (Albert-László Barabási, "Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means for Business, Science, and Everyday Life", 2002)

"The first category includes all networks in which, despite the fierce competition for links, the scale-free topology survives. These networks display a fit-get-rich behavior, meaning that the fittest node will inevitably grow to become the biggest hub. The winner's lead is never significant, however. The largest hub is closely followed by a smaller one, which acquires almost as many links as the fittest node. At any moment we have a hierarchy of nodes whose degree distribution follows a power law. In most complex networks, the power law and the fight for links thus are not antagonistic but can coexist peacefully."(Albert-László Barabási, "Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means for Business, Science, and Everyday Life", 2002)

"[…] it is useful to note that there are three basic network topologies. First, there are line or chain networks with many nodes that are spread out in more or less linear fashion. Second, there are star or hub networks, where most important relationships move through a central hub or hubs. Third, there are all-channel networks, in which communications proceed in more or less all directions across the network simultaneously […]." (John Urry, "Global Complexity", 2003)

"In a random network the loss of a small number of nodes can cause the overall network to become incoherent - that is, to break into disconnected subnetworks. In a scale-free network, such an event usually won’t disrupt the overall network because most nodes don’t have many links. But there’s a big caveat to this general principle: if a scale-free network loses a hub, it can be disastrous, because many other nodes depend on thaot hub." (Thomas Homer-Dixon, "The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization", 2006)

"Scale-free networks are particularly vulnerable to intentional attack: if someone wants to wreck the whole network, he simply needs to identify and destroy some of its hubs. And here we see how our world’s increasing connectivity really matters. Scientists have found that as a scale-free network like the Internet or our food-distribution system grows- as it adds more nodes - the new nodes tend to hook up with already highly connected hubs." (Thomas Homer-Dixon, "The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization", 2006)

"The scale-free distribution pattern has been most studied on the degree distribution of networks. What is a degree? The degree of a network. element is the number of connections it has. A scale-free degree distribution means that the network has a large number of elements with very few neighbors, but it has a non-zero number of elements with an extraordinarily large number of neighbors. These connection-rich elements are called hubs. If an element has just a few connections, it is often called a node." (Péter Csermely, "Weak Links: The Universal Key to the Stabilityof Networks and Complex Systems", 2009)

❄️Systems Thinking: On Trajectories (Quotes)

"Finite systems of deterministic ordinary nonlinear differential equations may be designed to represent forced dissipative hydrodynamic flow. Solutions of these equations can be identified with trajectories in phase space. For those systems with bounded solutions, it is found that nonperiodic solutions are ordinarily unstable with respect to small modifications, so that slightly differing initial states can evolve into considerably different states. Systems with bounded solutions are shown to possess bounded numerical solutions." (Edward N Lorenz, Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow", Journal of the Atmospheric Science 20, 1963)

"Cellular automata may be considered as discrete dynamical systems. In almost all cases, cellular automaton evolution is irreversible. Trajectories in the configuration space for cellular automata therefore merge with time, and after many time steps, trajectories starting from almost all initial states become concentrated onto 'attractors'. These attractors typically contain only a very small fraction of possible states. Evolution to attractors from arbitrary initial states allows for 'self-organizing' behaviour, in which structure may evolve at large times from structureless initial states. The nature of the attractors determines the form and extent of such structures." (Stephen Wolfram, "Nonlinear Phenomena, Universality and complexity in cellular automata", Physica 10D, 1984)

"Chaos is a peculiar situation in which the trajectories of a system, taken in the traditional sense, fail to converge as they approach their limit cycles or 'attractors' or 'equilibria'. Instead, they diverge, due to an increase, of indefinite magnitude, in amplification or gain." (Gordon Pask, "Different Kinds of Cybernetics", 1992)

"Regarding stability, the state trajectories of a system tend to equilibrium. In the simplest case they converge to one point (or different points from different initial states), more commonly to one (or several, according to initial state) fixed point or limit cycle(s) or even torus(es) of characteristic equilibrial behaviour. All this is, in a rigorous sense, contingent upon describing a potential, as a special summation of the multitude of forces acting upon the state in question, and finding the fixed points, cycles, etc., to be minima of the potential function. It is often more convenient to use the equivalent jargon of 'attractors' so that the state of a system is 'attracted' to an equilibrial behaviour. In any case, once in equilibrial conditions, the system returns to its limit, equilibrial behaviour after small, arbitrary, and random perturbations." (Gordon Pask, "Different Kinds of Cybernetics", 1992)

"Systems, acting dynamically, produce (and incidentally, reproduce) their own boundaries, as structures which are complementary (necessarily so) to their motion and dynamics. They are liable, for all that, to instabilities chaos, as commonly interpreted of chaotic form, where nowadays, is remote from the random. Chaos is a peculiar situation in which the trajectories of a system, taken in the traditional sense, fail to converge as they approach their limit cycles or 'attractors' or 'equilibria'. Instead, they diverge, due to an increase, of indefinite magnitude, in amplification or gain." (Gordon Pask, "Different Kinds of Cybernetics", 1992)

"Chaos has three fundamental characteristics. They are (a) irregular periodicity, (b) sensitivity to initial conditions, and (c) a lack of predictability. These characteristics interact within any one chaotic setting to produce highly complex nonlinear variable trajectories." (Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

"In classical catastrophe theory, the various attracting static hypersurfaces are actually connected. However, there are portions of the overall surface that are unstable, and thus repelling. Thus nearby trajectories tend to 'fly' quickly past these unstable regions as they move from one stable area to another. It is this relatively rapid snapping movement that is typical of nearly all catastrophe phenomena." (Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

"Small changes in the initial conditions in a chaotic system produce dramatically different evolutionary histories. It is because of this sensitivity to initial conditions that chaotic systems are inherently unpredictable. To predict a future state of a system, one has to be able to rely on numerical calculations and initial measurements of the state variables. Yet slight errors in measurement combined with extremely small computational errors (from roundoff or truncation) make prediction impossible from a practical perspective. Moreover, small initial errors in prediction grow exponentially in chaotic systems as the trajectories evolve. Thus, theoretically, prediction may be possible with some chaotic processes if one is interested only in the movement between two relatively close points on a trajectory. When longer time intervals are involved, the situation becomes hopeless.(Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

"A typical control goal when controlling chaotic systems is to transform a chaotic trajectory into a periodic one. In terms of control theory it means stabilization of an unstable periodic orbit or equilibrium. A specific feature of this problem is the possibility of achieving the goal by means of an arbitrarily small control action. Other control goals like synchronization and chaotization can also be achieved by small control in many cases." (Alexander L Fradkov, "Cybernetical Physics: From Control of Chaos to Quantum Control", 2007)

"Chaotic system is a deterministic dynamical system exhibiting irregular, seemingly random behavior. Two trajectories of a chaotic system starting close to each other will diverge after some time (such an unstable behavior is often called 'sensitive dependence on initial conditions'). Mathematically, chaotic systems are characterized by local instability and global boundedness of the trajectories. Since local instability of a linear system implies unboundedness (infinite growth) of its solutions, chaotic system should be necessarily nonlinear, i.e., should be described by a nonlinear mathematical model." (Alexander L Fradkov, "Cybernetical Physics: From Control of Chaos to Quantum Control", 2007)

"Systematic usage of the methods of modern control theory to study physical systems is a key feature of a new research area in physics that may be called cybernetical physics. The subject of cybernetical physics is focused on studying physical systems by means of feedback interactions with the environment. Its methodology heavily relies on the design methods developed in cybernetics. However, the approach of cybernetical physics differs from the conventional use of feedback in control applications (e.g., robotics, mechatronics) aimed mainly at driving a system to a prespecified position or a given trajectory." (Alexander L Fradkov, "Cybernetical Physics: From Control of Chaos to Quantum Control", 2007)

"A characteristic of such chaotic dynamics is an extreme sensitivity to initial conditions" (exponential separation of neighboring trajectories), which puts severe limitations on any forecast of the future fate of a particular trajectory. This sensitivity is known as the ‘butterfly effect’: the state of the system at time t can be entirely different even if the initial conditions are only slightly changed, i.e., by a butterfly flapping its wings." (Hans J Korsch et al, "Chaos: A Program Collection for the PC", 2008)

"[...] a high degree of unpredictability is associated with erratic trajectories. This not only because they look random but mostly because infinitesimally small uncertainties on the initial state of the system grow very quickly - actually exponentially fast. In real world, this error amplification translates into our inability to predict the system behavior from the unavoidable imperfect knowledge of its initial state." (Massimo Cencini et al, "Chaos: From Simple Models to Complex Systems", 2010)

"In chaotic deterministic systems, the probabilistic description is not linked to the number of degrees of freedom (which can be just one as for the logistic map) but stems from the intrinsic erraticism of chaotic trajectories and the exponential amplification of small uncertainties, reducing the control on the system behavior." (Massimo Cencini et al, "Chaos: From Simple Models to Complex Systems", 2010)

"A limit cycle is an isolated closed trajectory. Isolated means that neighboring trajectories are not closed; they spiral either toward or away from the limit cycle. If all neighboring trajectories approach the limit cycle, we say the limit cycle is stable or attracting. Otherwise the limit cycle is unstable, or in exceptional cases, half-stable. Stable limit cycles are very important scientifically - they model systems that exhibit self-sustained oscillations. In other words, these systems oscillate even in the absence of external periodic forcing." (Steven H Strogatz, "Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos: With Applications to Physics, Biology, Chemistry, and Engineering", 2015)

"Dynamics of a linear system are decomposable into multiple independent one-dimensional exponential dynamics, each of which takes place along the direction given by an eigenvector. A general trajectory from an arbitrary initial condition can be obtained by a simple linear superposition of those independent dynamics." (Hiroki Sayama, "Introduction to the Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems", 2015)

❄️Systems Thinking: On Fragility (Quotes)

"An organization which depends solely upon its blueprints of prescribed behavior is a very fragile social system." (Daniel Katz, "The motivational basis of organizational behavior", Behavioral science, 1964)

"Our humanity rests upon a series of learned behaviors, woven together into patterns that are infinitely fragile and never directly inherited." (Margaret Mead, "Male and female: a study of the sexes in a changing world", 1975)

"As control engineers and scientists, we have greatly altered the way people and nations live and interact with one another. We have helped to create a world in which people live longer, enjoy better health, are better educated, and can travel and communicate over greater distances. But the systems that provide these better lives are fragile systems subject to unpredictable failures and possible destruction. We have also helped to create a world in which international relations are such that the very civilizations we have helped to build over centuries can be destroyed in a matter of hours. (Harold Chestnut, "Applications of Control Principles to International Relations", IEEE Control Systems Magazine Vol.6 (6), 1986) 

"Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better." (Nassim N Taleb, "Antifragile: Things that gain from disorder", 2012)

"[...] True and False (hence what we call "belief") play a poor, secondary role in human decisions; it is the payoff from the True and the False that dominates-and it is almost always asymmetric, with one consequence much bigger than the other, i.e., harboring positive and negative asymmetries (fragile or antifragile)." (Nassim N Taleb, "Antifragile: Things that gain from disorder", 2012)

"In this system, which tends to devour everything which stands in the way of increased profits, whatever is fragile, like the environment, is defenseless before the interests of a deified market, which become the only rule." (Pope Francis, "The Joy of the Gospel", 2013)

"Democracy is a highly robust, but at the same time very fragile, complex system, which requires constant change to maintain its self-organized state. Democracy is by definition not in equilibrium. The random graph pattern may pose a system of boring and very low-complexity equilibrium. If all of us ever find ourselves with plenty of resources, that will be THE END of our history." (Péter Csermely, "Weak Links: The Universal Key to the Stabilityof Networks and Complex Systems", 2009)

"The scale-free system is a ‘borderline’ case between the random graph and the star phase. It is very fragile and transient, but in spite of this, it is very robust. We call it democracy. This democracy net always keeps a delicate balance betweenanarchy (random net) and dictatorship (star net). Fortunately, in democratic systems, the society is not segmented and weak links flourish. Consequently, the fragile system becomes robust. Democratic systems show the greatest complexity of all. However, weak links and their buffering may grow too great. A democratic society remains flexible for smaller challenges, but occasionally may become overcomplicated and unable to make a fast response to a life-threatening danger." (Péter Csermely, "Weak Links: The Universal Key to the Stabilityof Networks and Complex Systems", 2009)